Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:20:48

Constituency Profile


Adam, Olivier

Duranleau, Stéphane

Fournier, Catherine

Leclair, Claude

Picard, Michel

Sellah, Djaouida

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 9591.84%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (126/216 polls, 50.74% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Djaouida Sellah

   Verchères-Les Patriotes
   (60/216 polls, 31.66% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sana Hassainia

   (30/216 polls, 17.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Matthew Dubé


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15 10 17 ShadyH
The only riding poll conducted by Solutions Logik had the Bloc ahead by a big margin. This is a restructured riding made up of the towns of St-Bruno, St-Julie and St-Basile. St-Bruno is one of the richest towns in Quebec, on its own it would tend to go Liberal. St-Basile and Ste-Julie are two francopĥone municipalities with a mix of gen-x family households and retirees. These are the kind of communities that are swaying towards the Bloc and away from the NDP. This and most of the ridings to the south and east of it, is very likely to flip to the Bloc. Expect the Liberals to come in a strong third with more than 20%.
15 10 17 JFBreton
Avec la circonscription de Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères qui vient de basculer pour le Bloc dans les prévisions, je persiste et signe. Un très possible gain pour le Bloc. Catherine Fournier a été très présente dans les médias (nationaux compris). Les sites comme 308.com et Tooclosetocall y voient une intéressante lutte à trois, même s'ils favorisent toujours le NPD. La remontée libérale se fera au détriment du NPD. Le Bloc pourrait très bien se faufiler.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
This one should be picked up by the Bloc Quebecois, Fournier has ran a very good campaign and the NDP is imploding in Quebec.
15 10 11 JFBreton
À surveiller le 19 octobre. Circonscription qui borde Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, nationaliste, avec la présence remarquée de la candidate bloquiste. Les plus récentes projections suggèrent une lutte serrée. Je ne serais pas surpris que le Bloc l'emporte de peu.
15 10 01 Mr_vince
Catherine fournier is really involed in this election. We can see her often on TV and there even is a survey (of course elad by what could be, a former BQ member) that show her in front with 44% compare to 36% for Djaouida Sellah.
I would not be surprise if she wins here following the slump of the dippers in Quebec
15 09 20 A.S.
'Montarville' means it contains a certain bit of Phil Edmonston's 1990 NDP breakthrough seat--and the touch of Vercheres suggests BQ targetability as well. At least, if the Bloc weren't presently so eager to present itself as a force that'd go ballistic at a name like 'Djaouida Sellah'.
15 09 18 Initial (R.P.)
Avec la dernière publicité du @BlocQuébécois, les sondages vont bientôt le voir arriver beaucoup plus tôt, et le NPD, plus bas, ou sinon des électeurs mous vont se présenter lors du scrutin. Malgré sa forte majorité en 2011, cette circonscription est loin d'être acquise au NPD.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 29 Dr Bear
This is one riding where the Liberals are often competitive to a degree but seldom make any headway. Polling seems to indicate that once again, they'e in the running. The BQ also seem to be standing well, though I think their supporters will tend to gravitate towards the NDP to keep the Liberals out. NDP have the incumbent advantage and are still popular among the soft nationalists. I can see this being a battleground riding.

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