Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-07 22:21:08

Constituency Profile


Assouline, Valérie

Baylis, Frank

Blanchette-Lamothe, Lysane

Laplante, Natalie

Weizfeld, Abraham

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (221/221 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe


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15 10 10 Marco Ricci
With recent Quebec polls showing an increase in Liberal support a number of points above the 2011 levels, and Justin Trudeau winning The Gazette poll over Tom Mulcair as to who won the Leaders Debate With Anglophones, the Liberals have probably now moved ahead of the NDP here and can re-claim this riding.
I don't think Valerie Assouline of the Conservatives can win unless there is some sort of a weird Liberal/NDP split, or unless there is evidence that the Conservatives are up in West Island this year. Jean-Marc Leger of Leger polling said this week that the Liberals are now the leading party in Montreal again. It is in Quebec City where the Conservatives have picked up support the most.
15 10 09
Some may say I drank the Kool-aid, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the Conservatives make their breakthrough into Montreal with this 3-way battle. I don't think that Pierrefonds-Dollard voters will take very kindly to the news that Liberal candidate Frank Baylis bought ads with his company's money, illegal under the Canada Election Act. Same old Liberals up to the same old advertising scams.
15 10 09 observer
two weeks ago, I was almost ready to move this to the Liberal column. I still give Baylis the edge , but I am not ready ready to count out Valerie Assouline.
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
I think it may be too soon to predict a Liberal win here. It depends upon how accurate the Montr?al vs. Qu?bec polling is.
The general Qu?bec polls show the NDP up from 2011, the Conservatives down, and the Liberals up (although not up by as much as earlier in the year).
The Montr?al poll done a few weeks ago did show the Liberals doing well in the city, and well ahead with Anglophones. If that was accurate, then the Libs have the potential to win a seat like this back.
However, this riding was projected as having an 82% chance of going Liberal by 308 at the beginning of August, and is now down to a 63% chance. So it will be interesting to see how these trends turn out by October 19.
15 09 06 Teddy Boragina
Polls are showing us that the Liberals and NDP are just about tied in Montreal. The Tories are also way down. In addition, among Anglo voters, the Tories are down even more, and the Liberals have a huge lead over the NDP. Ridings like this one will swing much more towards the Liberals than many of it's neighbours.
15 09 03 Observer
I am still not ready to call this riding, anoher one where I used to live, and still visit regularly. This one could go any of three ways. However, We are only three weeks into a LONG campaign, which began while many are on vacation, or at least in vacation mode, and not really paying serious attention. What happens after Labour Day and up until the actual vote is what really matters, and we may start seeing some radical shifts.
French language debate, and in this riding, the English debates matter too are coming, in addition to the fact that people will start paying attention to the news again.
Quebec can be a volatile place too, so while the NDP may be riding high now, it could turn on a dime. In 2011, until the moment Duceppe and Marois appeared together and he dropped the 'defender of Quebec's interest pose for the 'Independence' one, it appeared that Quebec would be a replay of 2008.
I know this riding well having lived there for many years, and there is only one way it stays NDP, and that is if the party holds its current numbers until election day. Otherwise, My guess is that the bleed off from the NDP's Lysianne Blanchette-Lamothe will likely trend to the Liberals, putting Frank Baylis over the top. I expect improved numbers for the Tories' Valerie Assouline, mainly from the Jewish community in Westpark, DDO. She is one of two Tories with a remote chance of winning in Montreal.
Not at today's numbers, but if in the next 6 weeks the Tries start trending up, she's a contender.
15 04 07 Observer
As much as I would like to click under the 'C', I am not ready to call this riding yet.
It is, however, one of only two Montreal ridings that might go Tory, the other being Mount Royal. Stephen Harper has clearly cast his lot with our alliance with Israel, and that may be enough to put Mme Assouline over the top in a tight 3 way race, which, make no mistake it is going to be. NDP will probably see some of their votes falling aside to the Grits, and maybe back to the Bloc, while some Jewish Lib voters might slip to the Tories. Whoever wins will likely win with just over 30% of the vote with the other two nipping at their heels.
we will revisit this one again as the date draws near.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Excellent point made by the previous poster. As was the case with Lac Saint-Louis next door, the Conservatives finished a strong 3rd here. Thus, like Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia, (now former) Liberal MP Bernard Patry was also hit from 2 sides - both by the Orange Wave, and by an increase in the CPC vote. Although Scarpaleggia narrowly survived next door, Patry did not.
Presumably there will be an increase in the Liberal vote on West Island under Justin Trudeau that will bring up the Liberal numbers in both Pierrefonds-Dollard & Lac Saint-Louis, but voting patterns are not quite as clear as they were prior to 2011.
15 04 05 A.S.
Maybe the most interesting if little-noticed detail about this unlikeliest of 2011 Orange Crush upsets is that it was to some degree reflexively precipitated from the *other* flank as well; that is, the HarperCons' pro-Israel stance resonated with the hitherto dependably Liberal suburban Jewish vote in Dollard--indeed, when it came to votes cast on e-day, the Conservatives actually won more P-D polling stations than the Liberals! Sure, that may seem a rump constituency with little room for growth; but when it comes to the HarperCons, you never know what's up their sleeve...
15 03 23 B.W.
This riding is a longtime Liberal stronghold that surprisingly went to the NDP due to the Layton wave, and Ignatieff collapse in the 2011 federal election. Once the NDP took the lead, and Liberals began losing ground in Quebec, ex-Liberal MP Bernard Patry made a desperate attempt to criticize the NDP by accusing them of parachuting Lysane in Pierrefonds-Dollard when she actually does live in the riding, and didn't do much campaigning when she only campaigned on weekends due to her schooling in Trois Rivieres. This proved to be costly in Dr. Patry's electoral chances for the Liberals in Pierrefonds-Dollard. It is going to be interesting to see if the riding is going to stay NDP due to Ms. Blanchette-Lamothe's rising status as an MP serving as the party's citizenship and immigration critic, or back to the Liberal fold with the personal popularity of Justin Trudeau on the Island of Montreal, particularly the West Island.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
Considering how early it is and the dearth of incorrect Quebec predictions from 2011, I understand why EPP is cautious and is calling this TCTC. Regardless, I think this riding will swing solidly back to the Liberals. NDP support has collapsed amongst non-Francophones in Quebec and especially in the Montreal area. That alone would send this riding careening back into the Liberal column.
15 03 19 Mr. Montreal
Cette circonscription de l'ouest de l'Île de Montréal, habitée principalement par la haute classe moyenne, a créé toute une surprise en se joignant à la vague orange en 2011. Ayant échapé à la réélection du député libéral sortant Bernard Patry, le parti de ce dernier n'aurait besoin que d'environ 16% de vote populaire dans la province pour espérer au gain au dépends du NPD. Un gain conservateur est peu probable pour le moment.

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