Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:35:54

Constituency Profile


Amos, William

Griffiths, Colin

Lang, Louis

Lepage, Nicolas

Médieu, Pascal

Ravignat, Mathieu

Woodman, Benjamin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 870.17%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (190/237 polls, 70.87% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mathieu Ravignat

   (29/237 polls, 19.41% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nycole Turmel

   (18/237 polls, 9.72% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Françoise Boivin


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
Jéan Chrétien appeared here 2 days ago to campaign with Liberal candidate William Amos:
It will be interesting to see whether this is a sign of Liberal momentum here.
15 10 17 SC
For what it's worth, the word I've gotten from people involved in the Liberal campaign is that they're now expecting to win here.
15 10 17 DSR
The Leger poll published today gives the Liberals a six point lead over the NDP in Quebec with leads among both Anglophone and Francophone voters.
All voters: Lib 31%, NDP 25%, BQ 23%, Con 20%. Anglophone voters: Lib 51%, NDP 22%, Con 20%, BQ 4%. Francophone voters: Lib 27%, BQ 27%, NDP 26%, Con 20%.
With figures like these it is difficult to see the NDP retaining this riding and I now believe that this will be a Lib pick-up.
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
It's hard to know for sure which party will have the most momentum on Election Day since things can always change in the final week as we have seen before. And with numbers as close as the Mainstreet riding poll is reporting, predicting how the numbers come out on October 19th could be like flipping a coin.
However, as someone mentioned below, the fact that Sophie Gregoire-Trudeau was here last week visiting the campaign could mean that the Liberals are seeing internal numbers that match up with the Mainstreet poll.
Plus, David Reevely of The Ottawa Citizen reports that now Justin Trudeau will be coming to Pontiac tomorrow:
15 10 10 Jack Cox
A poll here showed Matthew Ravignat with a 2 percent lead over Will Amos, I think at this point you have to go with the party that has momentum and I think Amos is going to win this riding.
15 10 09 Marco Ricci
This riding was Conservative for 2 terms under Lawrence Cannon before the Layton Wave brought the NDP in and took Cannon down.
The question now is, with NDP support declining in Quebec, and Liberal support rising, do the Liberals have the ability to coalesce the Federalist vote here and win this riding back? It was Liberal for several terms in the Chrétien/Martin era.
The new Mainstreet poll has the Liberals nearly tied with the NDP here. The question is, where does the 3rd place Conservative vote go?
PONTIAC - October 8th
Decided & Leaning
NDP - 36%
LPC - 34%
CPC - 19%
BQ - 8%
15 10 09 DSR
The Mainstreet poll perhaps explains why Mrs Trudeau was campaigning in this riding on Tuesday. This one remains TCTC.
15 10 08 Jeff S
Mainstreet has this: NDP 36 LPC 34 CPC 19 Bloc 8. TCTC.
15 09 30 R.O.
Although the ndp did really well here in 2011 I've always considered this to be a swing riding and not yet a safe ndp riding. Its also more of an Ottawa riding than a Quebec riding as a lot of towns in it like Shawville are more connected to Ontario than people realise. Conservatives did well here in 2011 but had Lawrence Cannon as a candidate who was popular here . its tough to say how the new candidate Benjamin Woodman will do here . even though its an ndp riding there is large liberal and conservative bases of support here.
Bien que le NPD n'a vraiment bien ici en 2011, j'ai toujours considéré ce projet comme une balançoire circonscription et pas encore un coffre circonscription néo-démocrate. Son également plus d'une circonscription d'Ottawa qu'une circonscription du Québec, comme un grand nombre de villes comme Shawville sont plus connectés à l'Ontario que les gens ne l'imaginent. Les conservateurs n'ont bien ici en 2011 mais avait Lawrence Cannon comme un candidat qui était populaire ici . son dur de dire comment le nouveau candidat Benjamin Woodman fera ici . Même si sa une circonscription néo-démocrate il y a de grandes bases libéral et conservateur d'assistance ici.
15 09 25 Woodworth
This riding was blue only because of Lawrence Cannon. It probably won't be going Tory again for a while for the future. Race is between LPC and NDP, and NDP will keep it.
15 09 20 A.S.
Back in 2004, the post-Cheryl Gallant 'Ottawa Valley effect' made this the poll-winningest riding for the Cons in Quebec--thus motivating the 2006-through-2011 Cannon-ball runs; however, the high floor was also a low ceiling, as Lawrence Cannon failed to make enough headway in the rest of the riding to rise above a third of the vote at large (instead, the heart of QuebecCon country turned out to be the *provincial* capital rather than the *national* one). The symbolism of an ex-Communist martial arts champ knocking out a CPC cabinet minister was worth a few raised eyebrows in 2011; but redistribution helps Ravignat, and besides, the residual Ottawa Valley effect more than likely splits the opposition.
15 09 03 Tony
NDP win here again. They beat a minister here in 2011, they should win in 2015 vs. a weak candidate.
15 08 28 R.O.
This is a federalist swing riding and generally votes for most popular federal party in Quebec or popular incumbent . its been liberal, conservative and ndp since 2004. Lawrence Cannon was mp for a few years but not back this election, Benjamin Woodman is the new cpc candidate. ndp would have a clear advantage if election held today but its type of riding that could come more into play if polls were to change.
C'est un fédéraliste swing circonscription et généralement pour la plupart des votes parti fédéral au Québec ou populaire . son été libéral titulaires, conservateurs et néo-démocrates depuis 2004. Lawrence Cannon a été député pendant quelques années mais pas cette élection, Benjamin Woodman est le nouveau CPC. candidats néo-démocrates auraient un avantage clair si élection tenue aujourd'hui, mais son type de circonscription qui pourraient venir de plus en jeu si les sondages venait à changer.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this a Con v NDP dead heat. Probably too early to call this. A Liberal breakthrough because of the Sherbrooke declaration? Seriously? 308 has them in third place and the fairly hopeless 7.3% Bloc vote will likely be looking to park with the NDP precisely to support Sherbrooke declaration.
15 08 17
As i can see this will be a 3-battle race between NDP CPC abd LPC. Even if I think NPD will win, this one use to be Lawrence Cannon riding and yet, 308.com waves between a 50% chance for the CPC to win and a 56% for the NDP to win with LPc finishing in a strong 3rd place. I would not count the conservative out in this riding who has a big big anglophone part. Some of them from Ontario, and Glengarry-prescott-russell is fairly conservative as a riding
15 08 04 seasaw
I wouldn't call this one yet. I agree with Non Partisan that this is a seat that the Liberals could win, especially if Trudeau continues to perform well. One should not underestimate the power of NDP in this riding either, for now I say TCTC
15 07 05 #ABC51
Ravignant will not lose this riding. It takes more than a few unilingual Anglophones in Shawville jumping to the Liberal ship to overcome Mulcair's immense popularity in Francophone Quebec.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Lawrence Cannon is not running here again, and a lot of the federalist CPC support will go Liberal, especially those wary of the NDP's Sherbrooke Declaration. The Liberals will pick up this seat.
15 03 28 monkey
Anyone of the three national parties could realistically win here. The NDP is probably the favourite as they are strong in the areas in around Gatineau region, but somewhat weaker in the rural areas. This riding has a large Anglophone community who the Liberals have regained amongst so could also go for them. While a Tory win seems unlikely, they do tend to do quite well in the areas further up the Ottawa Valley which are rural Anglophone and in a lot of ways are more like rural Eastern Ontario than rural Quebec. Nonetheless they are quite weak as you get closer to Gatineau as well as Lawrence Cannon probably got some personal votes so to win here they would need a really strong split between the other parties.
15 03 24 DT
The Pontiac is an interesting riding, with a relatively high anglophone population. The Tories, the Liberals and the NDP all have a shot, really. That said, I think that the NDP will be able to retain the riding, in part because of the choice of candidates from the other major parties, and because he is the incumbent (even if it was with the Orange wave).

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