Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:15:47

Constituency Profile


Asselin, Pierre-Thomas

Duclos, Jean-Yves

Fournier, Normand

Mordret, Charles

Papillon, Annick

Provost, Danielle

Riboty, Philippe

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (239/244 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Annick Papillon


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15 10 16 Oliver May
I take it back. Annick will hold this one. No Bloc surge almost certainly means a Bloc collapse. Why throw your vote away when there are better choices.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province.
15 10 10 Oliver May
Got to say that I simply don't see where the Conservative support is going to come from and how it will overwhelm a 30%+ Bloc vote. Yeah, Vanier is technically more conservative than upper town and St. Roch, but seriously, that Conservative?
I still think Annick might hang on to this seat but I very, very strongly doubt the Cons will win.
15 10 09 observer
Going out on a limb here, as the Tories have not won this since the Mulroney era, but given the sharp and dramatic uptick in the Quebec City region for the Tories, and the potential splitting of the left vote between the Bloc and the NDP's Annick Papillon, this one has a good chance of falling into good , Tory hands.
15 10 03 JFBreton
Before the last french debate on TVA, Jean-Marc Léger from Léger Marketing presented this poll for Quebec City area: Conservatives 48%, NDP 20%, Bloc 17%, Liberal 14%, Green 2%. In Quebec Riding, most left politically, with division of the vote between NDP and Conservatives, I would not be surprised to see the Bloc win.
15 09 25 Woodworth
This has been out of reach for the CPC even in their Quebec peak of 2008. With BQ votes shifting NDP and public servants unions working hard for the Dippers, this is staying orange.
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from the Liberals throughout Quebec, they will not lose here give as how the Liberals are irrelevant in this riding.
15 09 02 A.S.
Yeah, the 'Ottawa Centre' inner-city rule of thumb definitely applies--and why not, considering that the PQ/BQ history here has been more 'progressive' than 'PKP'. And on top of that, it's one of the stronger non-Montreal nodes for Quebec Solidaire.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
While most of Quebec City switch parties depending on the provincial whims, Quebec stayed steadily BQ. Now that the BQ have crumbled and don't have much hope of becoming the force they once were, it's likely that this riding will stay with the NDP. While the surrounding ridings may switch back to the CPC or the LPC, this will remain a speck of orange in the city center (like Ottawa, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Halifax...see a pattern here?).
15 03 20 JFBreton
Je suis assez confiant en la réélection d'Annick Papillon du NPD. La circonscription de Québec recoupe la circonscription provinciale de Taschereau au centre-ville de Québec. Si la couronne de Québec est plus encline à voter conservateur, la ville-centre est nettement plus à gauche, ce qui a notamment permis au Bloc de résister lors de nombreuses élections.

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