Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:06:02

Constituency Profile


Beaulieu, Myriam

Busque, Laurier

Desmarais, Marc

Dubois, Antoine

Nolin, Olivier

Rayes, Alain

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (242/242 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

André Bellavance


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15 10 17 Tes
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
With current polling numbers, I concur with the CPC prediction for this riding. The popular mayor of Victoriaville will be part of the Conservative caucas.
15 10 09 observer
Conservatives have long posted some very good numbers in Richmond Arthabasca, but never good enough to overcome the popular Andre Bellavance.. until now. Now the tables are turned and the popular mayor of Victoriaville is carrying the Tory banner, and will return this riding to Conservatives. This was, remember, the one riding the Tories retained in the 2000 election.
15 09 29 Spx
At the moment I'd say this one is leaning Conservative, but I have the feeling it's just an emotional bounce for the Conservatives (and drop for the NDP) because of the Supreme court ruling on the Niqab. In a week or so it's going to be all old news and I doubt somebody would really base their vote solely on one issue which doesn't even affect anybody who votes. So I think this should stay in TCTC
15 09 27 MUBS
From Mainstreet/Postmedia polls Sept. 23rd
?The Conservatives are running a star candidate ? Alain Rayes, mayor of Victoriaville and right now the political gamble for Rayes is paying off. His 12% lead is all the more significant when you factor in a low level of undecided voters in the riding. Conservative numbers will need to hold up for Rayes to be successful, but with Conservative numbers so low in the province it looks like right now most of his support comes from his own personal personality.?
15 09 28 JFBreton
Sondage Mainstreet. Avance du candidat conservateur qui jouit d'une bonne popularité. Depuis, les conservateurs et le bloc ont grimpé dans les sondages et le NPD est en baisse. Gain de Rayes. Source: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ahuntsic-cartierville-mount-royal-richmond-arthabaska/
15 09 27 Monkey Cheese
Definitely TCTC at this point. I have always questioned 'Mainstreet Research' ever since that poll that showed the Conservatives at 38% nationally just before the election. They always appear to overestimate Conservative support and showing them with a 12% lead in a riding the NDP won comfortably last time strikes me as odd to say the least. 308 is showing a much closer race. I'm not ready to call this one until we see a more credible pollster like CROP poll this riding.
Certainement TCTC à ce point. Je me suis toujours interrogé 'Mainstreet recherche' depuis ce sondage a montré que les conservateurs à 38% au niveau national juste avant l'élection. Ils apparaissent toujours à surestimer l'appui aux conservateurs et en leur montrant avec une avance de 12% dans une circonscription du NPD a remporté confortablement dernière fois me paraît bizarre de dire le moins. 308 montre une course beaucoup plus proche. Je ne suis pas prêt à appeler celui-ci jusqu'à ce que nous voyons un sondeur plus crédible comme sondage CROP cette circonscription.
15 09 25 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Poll
CON - 42%
NDP - 30%
BQ - 9%
LIB - 6%
Mainstreet says that although the Conservatives are unpopular in Quebec, it looks like the personal popularity of Alain Rayes, the Mayor of Victoriaville, may get them a win here:
15 09 25 R.O.
Mainstreet polling released a poll for this riding , around 668 people were polled in the riding , among decided voters 46 cpc , 35 ndp , 10 bloc , 7 liberal. The numbers are interesting cause this used to be a bloc riding until mp Andre Bellavance decided not to run again yet they don't appear in the race. Conservative candidate Alain Rayes was the mayor of Victoriaville one of the larger towns in the riding . this riding was also the only pc riding in Quebec a few years ago when Andre Bachand was mp .
Mainstreet rendait publics les résultats d'un sondage du scrutin de cette circonscription , environ 668 personnes ont été interrogées dans la circonscription , parmi les électeurs ayant 46 CPC , 35 néo-démocrates , 10 bloc , 7 libéral. Les chiffres sont intéressants causer ce utilisé pour être un bloc circonscription jusqu'à ce que MP André Bellavance a décidé de ne pas exécuter de nouveau encore qu'ils n'apparaissent pas dans la course. Candidat conservateur Alain Rayes était le maire de Victoriaville l'une des villes les plus importantes de la circonscription . Cette circonscription était également la seule circonscription de pc au Québec il y a quelques années quand André Bachand était mp .
15 09 25 Orange Tory
From Mainstreet/Post Media riding polls on September 23: ?The Conservatives are running a star candidate ? Alain Rayes, mayor of Victoriaville and right now the political gamble for Rayes is paying off. His 12% lead is all the more significant when you factor in a low level of undecided voters in the riding. Conservative numbers will need to hold up for Rayes to be successful, but with Conservative numbers so low in the province it looks like right now most of his support comes from his own personal personality.?
15 09 25 Woodworth
Mainstreet Poll shows CPC with massive lead of 12 points in this riding - well above the margin of error. Taking into consideration the CPC spike to about 24% in Quebec, this one will be a Tory pick up.
15 09 21 A.S.
Wow, how murky. Keep in mind that Andre Bachand won in 2000 largely because he was the last reoffering incumbent PC remaining in Quebec--but the inability of CPC to win here ever since (and even in 2006/8) shows that the local Conservative roots aren't *that* deep, even if they're deep enough to excuse Alain Rayes' candidacy. And even if Bellavance had a certain endearing-maverick quality by Bloc standards, his survival of 2011's rout also had to do with a particularly poteau-level Dipper and Bachand's brother allowing him up the middle--now with him gone, what does it mean? Rayes looked like a favourite until the NDP started soaring to SNP levels and the Cons to low teens in QC; but, still--what now? With vestigial 'incumbent' Bloc and Liberal strength, maybe another third-of-a-vote victory a la 2011 for whomever prevails?
15 09 19 Nolan R O'Brien
I believe that the Bloc Quebecois is finished in this riding so now it's pretty much up to the Conservatives against NDP and I am going to say that the NDP will win this riding with a comfortable majority but the Conservatives have a small chance.
Je crois que le Bloc Québécois est fini dans cette circonscription alors maintenant il est à peu près à la hauteur des conservateurs contre NPD et je vais dire que le NPD va gagner cette circonscription avec une majorité confortable, mais les conservateurs ont une petite chance .
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
Stephen Harper held an event here yesterday, so the Conservatives haven't given up on this riding yet, BUT it is now leaning NDP, rather than Conservative like last month.
Harper was an hour late for the event, and the Qu?bec press (as well as some supporters in the room) were impatient at the delay.
The Conservatives do have a star candidate in Mayor Alain Rayes, but it will be interesting to see whether his name recognition is enough to overcome the drop in the CPC's numbers in Qu?bec. There was also an article this week criticizing the Mayor for taking a salary while he is running for the Conservatives:
We'll have to see whether the Qu?bec pollsters will do a riding poll here to give us more information about what is going on.
15 09 09 Isa
Numbers for the NDP in Quebec, as they stand right now, mean that the NDP is the only party to take this seat. Nationally, Liberals and NDP are running neck and neck, while CPC down to a solid third. That means Richmond-Arthabaska goes orange unless numbers for Libs go up significantly in Quebec. Many days to go though...
15 09 03 Tony
Conservatives have always targeted this seat. This time its open and they're running a mayor so I think they finally win it.
15 08 20 Will
With the CROP poll this morning, this is an easy NDP win. Unfortunately. Libs, who are running 2nd provincially, need to get numbers up to mid-30s or higher to be in the game in Richmond. Conservatives, even with Rayes, are out of the game here. Will end up 2nd or close 3rd. Bloc is dead without Bellavance.
15 08 12 Dr Bear
This is one of two ridings that I think the CPC will pick up in Quebec (the other being Louis Saint Laurent). This is an area where the Conservatives have always been competitive and they have a star candidate (the mayor of Victoriaville). Watch BQ support evaporate to the NDP to prevent a CPC win, but I think Rayes' popularity will win the riding for team blue.
15 08 11 J.F. Breton
Circonscription ciblée par les conservateurs avec un candidat connu, maire de la principale ville du coin. Ils y mettront tous les efforts pour l'emporter. Devrait également bénéficier de l'effet d'entrainement des autres circonscriptions de Chaudière-Appalaches déjà conservatrices. Courte victoire PCC.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Alain Rayes is a star candidate and is Mayor of the city which makes up a third of the riding. He should win.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Alain Rayes has decisively won as mayor in Victoriaville. I can even see him getting above 40% here. CPC win.
15 07 09 mr_vince
I've read all the comments and it will be a good race between the Bloc-NDP-CPC.
Alain rayes has been elected whithout opposition in 2013 as the mayor of the 42 000 citizens victoriaville. the riding has over 100 000 voters. Plus doesn't mean all people like what Rayes do as a mayor.
Of course BQ and NDP will split vote and give a chance for CPc to win but, I do think that BQ voter WIll go for NDP now that their candidate is gone more than NPD going back to BQ. Plus, the ascension of the LPc mike take out some vote for the CPC (Not many but it might be a factor)
I predic a NPD-CPC Battle but a NPD win maybe by more than 5%
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This is an open seat with MP Bellavance not running again. The CPC is running the mayor of the largest city in the riding. The Bloc and NDP will split the vote, and the CPC will gain this seat.
15 04 09 Marco Ricci
Canadian Press reports today (April 9) that Victoriaville Mayor Alain Rayes will announce his candidacy for the Conservatives on Monday.
15 04 09 Jeanne Marie
Conservative Alain Reyes is popular, and Mayor of the largest city in the riding. An open seat, he can win the riding as a result of vote split between the Bloc and NDP
15 04 07 Observer
With Tory voting intentions at their current levels, This riding where the Tories have long fared reasonably well, including being the only Quebec riding to remain Tory in 2000, it will be among the first new ones to go blue as the periphery of 'la Fleche bleue' widens.
15 04 01 B.W.
With Bloc Quebecois turned independent MP Andre Bellevance announcing that is not seeking reelection, followed by news that members of the Richmond-Arthabaska Bloc Quebecois riding association resigning due to their close working relationship with Bellevance, and differences with BQ leader Mario Beaulieu, this could be a wide open seat. The Conservatives are trying to recruit the current and popular mayor of Victoriaville, Alain Rayes, who once ran for the ADQ. Former Richmond-Arthabaska Progessive Conservative MP Andre Bachand could be another possible candidate for the party as well but there is no word if he is interested. If either one of those candidates decide to run for the party, this riding could go back to the Conservatives due to name recognition and personal popularity of those candidates in the riding
15 03 28 monkey
This is an interesting one as it straddles the Eastern Townships which largely went NDP and the Chaudière-Appalaches region which went largely Conservative. No doubt Andre Bellevance could hold this, but could be challenging as well as it could go NDP. The Tories with the right splits also have a decent chance of picking this up and if they can convince Andre Bachand to run here I would even give them the edge. While he opposed the merger and supported the Liberals in 2004, he has since in contrast to most Red Tories returned to the Conservatives.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
It's an open riding and as far as I'm concerned this is a four way race, but the Conservatives have been targeting this seat heavily and I think they will win it.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
Certainly too close to call. This riding sits on the edge of the most conservative region of Quebec, a very separatist region of Quebec and the Liberal-friendly regions of the Eastern Townships. Having been been held by the PC when the rest of the province abandoned the party and then by the BQ when everywhere else opted for the NDP, I'd say this riding is impossible to call with any certainty. If compelled to make a decision, I would say a CPC pick up, in a very close race with the NDP. Should the NDP start to look like they're gaining ground in rural Quebec, then this will swing orange. The one thing I am certain about, the BQ will not hold this riding (was a mistake not selecting Andre Bellavance as party leader).

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