Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:38:05

Constituency Profile


Durand, Lise

Filion, Michel

Léveillé, Réjean

Ménard, Ugo

Sansoucy, Brigitte

Vincelette, René

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (228/228 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marie-Claude Morin


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15 10 18 ShadyH
This one is well outside the suburbs bordering a suburban riding (Pierre-Boucher) already forecasted to go Bloc. If the consensus is that Vercheres and Varennes are turning Bloc, then it is very hard to see how St-Hyacinthe remains NDP.
15 10 14 #ABC51
Nothing in the polls suggest that the Conservatives are doing well enough in Quebec to plausibly win any seats in Montérégie.
Easy hold for the NDP.
15 10 10 Teddy Boragina
The real threat to the NDP here is not from the Bloc, it's from the Tories.
Despite that, this is a 3-riding area where the NDP did very, very well last time, and as such, they can be expected to hold on.
15 09 29 R.O.
Although the ndp did really well here in 2011 its open this year as mp Marie Claude Morin decided not to run again. And somehow I suspect this riding is going to be closer as new polls show ndp down in Quebec ? new abacus data poll 30 ndp , 24 lib , 21 cpc , 20 bloc . an open riding like this that had historically been a bloc Quebecois stronghold from 93-2011 appears like one that could be more competitive . Its also been somewhat of a conservative target over the years as well when they came close in a by-election here back in 2007.
Bien que le NPD n'a vraiment bien ici en 2011 sa ouvrir cette année comme mp Marie Claude Morin a décidé de ne pas s'exécuter de nouveau. Et en quelque sorte je soupçonne que cette circonscription va être plus proche que de nouveaux sondages montrent NPD au Québec - Nouvelles données d'Abacus sondage 30 néo-démocrates , 24 lib , 21 CPC , 20 bloc . une coupure circonscription comme ce qui avait toujours été un bastion du Bloc québécois de 93-2011 apparaît comme celui qui pourrait être en jeu . Son aussi été quelque peu d'une cible de conservateur au cours des années de même quand ils sont arrivés près dans une élection partielle ici en 2007.
15 09 20 A.S.
Another case where an Orange Crush beneficiary found that she bit off more than she could chew in elected life--though to her credit, Marie-Claude Morin opted for a single-term soft landing, no Sana Hassainia debacles to burden the party with. In any event, given the 2011 result in St-Hyacinthe, we're dealing with Beauce in reverse, anyway: the one-time Quebec Tory fiefdom of Claude Wagner is now coasting confidently on Orange fuel.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
An empty seat where, on paper, any of the four parties could win. However, with the NDP being the new-pseudo Bloc Quebecois and Mulcair courting the soft-nationalist vote, I think ridings like this will stay safely in the NDP fold.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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