Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:44:29

Constituency Profile


Guinta, Stéphane

Hurtubise, Denis

Marotte, Hans

Redivo, Marilyn

Rioux, Jean

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (239/239 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tarik Brahmi


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15 10 15 Jeff S
Looks like the NDP has righted the ship and will take this one.
15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
If the Bloc goes up to 23%, and the NDP down to 29%, this riding would go Bloc. The problem (for the Bloc) is they have retreated in the polls, and the NDP has stabilized closer to 30%.
Why give those specific numbers? Frankly, I'm not going to update this posting every time the poll averages goes over this line, and as such, you may need to mentally update this as time goes on.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
While the BQ are up in the polls, it's only to levels they had on e-day in 2011. The NDP are down enough that this race is now close. My previous comments from months ago still stand. This is TCTC and we should watch the polls this week.
15 09 02 A.S.
A fabled Quebec belwether, which right now means but another brick in a sea of Orange. And if Hans Marotte unapologetically playing the Middle Eastern politics card proves anything, it's that the NDP in Quebec has become the modern-day version of Reform/Alliance in the West a generation ago, i.e. no matter how 'outrageous' their past or present statements, you just can't knock'em out...
15 03 29 Dr Bear
An open seat with a strong BQ presence. This riding is considered a bell weather riding in provincial races (though it bucked the trend in the last provincial race). That said, I think it'll depend on who the BQ nominate (hasn't been done yet) and how well the parties generally fare in the campaign. One to watch.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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