Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:33:57

Constituency Profile


Allen, Thomas ''Tom''

Bouchard, Caroline

Dauphin, Marc

Dusseault, Pierre-Luc

Huberdeau, Benoit

Malouin, Sophie

Richard, Hubert

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (241/263 polls, 90.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre-Luc Dusseault

   (22/263 polls, 9.40% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean Rousseau


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
Mulcair was in Sherbrooke yesterday, so it could be a sign that the NDP feels things are close here.
But who knows for sure who is likely to win. If long-term former BQ MP Serge Cardin were running again, he might have the edge. But it's hard to say.
The Liberals might also get a better share of the vote here than usual with high-profile candidate Tom Allen. Justin Trudeau was in the Eastern Townships with Tom Allen & Denis Paradis last week.
15 10 11 Jeff S
I can understand those predicting the Bloc. But the CPC may gain votes out of the idiotic nijab thing that might otherwise go to the Bloc. Which could enable the NDP to squeeze by. In other words, not ready to call it.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
One of four seats currently projected to be won by the Bloc.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
Now that the Bloc have found real traction this riding is in real danger of leaving the NDP's grasp.
15 10 09 observer
Sherbrooke will be returning to the Bloc column again after briefly holding he distinction of having the yoingest elected Member of Parliament in history.
The Bloc campaign is making steady inroads here, and can be expected emerge victorious on Oct. 19th.
15 09 18 Nick M.
Seems like an easy NDP riding on paper. Bloc vote will bleed off to the NDP, and this no exception. Please also don't forget, this will be the first election where the NDP will actively canvass in the area.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Now I'm ready to call this for the NDP. The BQ just have not got any traction. Duceppe is very fond of quoting Yogi Berra's 'It ain't over till it's over', and that may be true, however, at the moment, it looks very bad for team blue.
15 08 01 A,S,
Actually, I'd suggest that Sherbrooke's separatist tendency over the years makes it *more* likely to vote NDP than its Eastern Townships neighbours, *not* less. That it was as close as it was in 2011 had more to do with Dusseault's youth/inexperience vs Serge Cardin's strength--and
Cardin was strong enough to pick up from that and defeat Jean Charest in his own provincial riding the next year. However, Cardin in his turn was defeated once again in 2014's PQ disaster, so if the Bloc's banking on someone like *him*, well...
15 07 20 Mr. Dave
The riding with the distinction of electing the youngest M.P. in the history of the House of Commons will see that M.P. re-elected in 2015, given the recent polling that shows that the 'surge' experienced by the B.Q. with the news of the return of Gilles Duceppe has gone bust already.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Duceppe's return may have increased BQ support in Quebec but thrice nothing is still nothing. Polling shows the BQ support still below what they garnered in the 2011 election. That said, there will be few BQ seats in the next House of Commons. Regardless, I am not prepared to call this seat for the NDP. Sherbrooke does have a knack for voting more towards the separatist parties that it's more rural Eastern Township neighbors.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 24 Stevo
Sherbrooke is an enduringly nationalist riding where the Bloc's tally was quite robust last time. If one assumes that many of the left-leaning nationalists have migrated over to the NDP, the Bloc and the Conservatives will split the centre and centre-right vote allowing the NDP to maintain first place. It would take a return of Jean Charest to federal politics for the Conservatives to actually win here - hey he's still quite young, it's certainly possible.
15 03 30 JC
I think this should be moved into the too close to call column, I consider this one a two way race between the Tories and the NDP, with the possibility of the bloc depending on who the candidate is as I assume it was close the last time because there was an incumbent MP but definitely not a slam dunk for the NDP.
15 03 28 monkey
This riding has a distinction for electing young candidates and in fact elected the youngest MP ever, but with the Liberals and Tories being non-factors here, I suspect this will stay NDP unless something dramatic happens.

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