Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:18:04

Constituency Profile


Green, Daniel

Miller, Marc

Shanahan, Steve

Sloan, William

St-Onge, Chantal

Turner, Allison

Wolfe, Daniel

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1220.30%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Jeanne-Le Ber
   (121/208 polls, 61.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tyrone Benskin

   (73/208 polls, 36.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc Garneau

   (6/208 polls, 1.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hélène Laverdière

   (8/208 polls, 0.63%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair


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15 10 08 Marco Ricci
If the current polls in Québec are accurate (and one never knows for sure!) then this riding is leaning Liberal in theory. Both 308 & Too Close To Call show it in the Liberal column at the moment.
But since the riding has been re-drawn and there are new Liberal & NDP candidates running (as well as a higher-profile Conservative than usual) it's hard to say what will happen here. There does not appear to have been a riding poll done here yet, either. TCTC
15 10 07 Ropshin
Allison Turner is certainly an outstanding candidate with a high profile and revitalized team. The Liberals have parachuted in an outsider from Westmount. They should not count her out.
15 10 04 John
I'm not going to rule out the NDP on this one.
Looks like the constituency association thought they could get better mileage out of another candidate.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
With the NDP falling, the BQ rising, and the Liberals solidifying in Montreal, this riding is now a possible Liberal win again, but further data from Quebec will be needed in the next 2 weeks before determining this.
15 09 14 A.S.
With Benskin gone, the seat evidently became a less sexy subject of discussion--and it's funny how with the reconfiguration-and-shift of the former Jeanne-Le Ber, it went from a defeated-Bloc riding to one where the notional 2011 figure rather conspicuously favoured the Liberals (and even in the J-LB part, thanks to Nun's Island). And what's *really* been glossed over in the process is how it's unexpectedly morphed into the new 'Montreal Centre' riding, Old Town, McGill and all, to the point where the overriding Benskinian artsy-fartsy of old is looking rather squeezed out. So this could actually still be an interesting seat to watch, unless Orange Crush II results in yet another boring landslide...
15 09 10 Spx
This one is going to be a tough call .. could go either way, at this point I would say it's leaning NDP, but if Trudeau improves a bit more on the island it could easily flip to the Liberals
15 03 29 Marco Ricci
NDP MP Tyrone Benskin lost the nomination today to challenger Allison Turner, a lawyer. Benskin had some baggage because of the controversy over him not paying his income taxes. He had his critic's position taken away by Tom Mulcair, so it could be a good thing for the NDP to have a fresh candidate. This seat could go Liberal or NDP depending on what the provincial support levels are in this part of Montréal. The Liberals had been going up under Justin Trudeau, but they recently dropped in the Québec polls because of the Couillard austerity cuts. Something to keep an eye on over the year.
15 03 28 monkey
While the Liberals are up in Quebec and the NDP down, the NDP is still competitive never mind this sort of has the demographics that would naturally favour the NDP, i.e. large number of young unmarried types, students so while a Liberal pickup is quite possible due to large non-Francophone community, I would still give the NDP the edge. Even though the PLQ and federal Liberals are separate, the PLQ cuts have been extremely unpopular amongst students so that should also probably give a boost to the NDP.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
This is a tough call, but I'm going to say a Liberal gain. A new-ish riding, created from chunks of other ridings that could easily swing Liberal or NDP. Thing is, the NDP incumbent has fallen from grace, going from front bench-ish to backbencher. He's even being challenged for the nomination by two other candidates. The Liberals are doing well in Montreal at the moment, so that and NDP woes are why I say Liberal.

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