Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:18:55

Constituency Profile


Duhamel, France

Jenkins, Brian

Kaddouri, Barek

Mavros, Anthony

Nassif, Eva

Núñez Melo, José

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2390.51%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (176/236 polls, 77.74% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

José Nunez-Melo

   Laval-Les Îles
   (28/236 polls, 12.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

François Pilon

   (32/236 polls, 9.91% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rosane Doré Lefebvre


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15 10 10 Teddy Boragina
This is another riding without anyone else projecting Liberal recently, but where the math is suggesting the Liberals have the edge.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
While the CPC and BQ have caught up to where they were on e-day in 2011 (when they bombed in the province), the Liberals are way up. Extrapolating a result based on current provincial polling numbers, the Liberals would win this seat. The NDP incumbent running for the Greens ought to help draw votes and benefit the Grits.
15 09 04 Marco Ricci
Tony, the Liberals & the NDP both nominated their candidates here a couple of weeks ago, they're just not listed on EP yet. (And as I mentioned below, the press recently covered Justin Trudeau's Laval rally at which the Liberal candidate here, Eva Nasiff, appeared).
As I said before, this is a riding which is leaning NDP at the moment, but which can go Liberal if Trudeau raises his Quebec numbers over the next month. Liberal numbers are up Nationally, and particularly in Ontario, but haven't come up high enough in Quebec yet.
15 09 02 QuébecCityOliver
The idea that the voters in this riding or any riding in Québec or Ontario are going to vote for a defector to the Green party is delusional. This stump didn't win because of his great candidature.
Less than 5% of voters care about the candidate at the best of times.
15 09 02 Tony
No candidate yet for the Liberals (Or listed here at least) same with the NDP, think enough people feel for Melo and hand the Greens a seat in a close race.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
I give the edge to the NDP here, but the Liberals have the potential to win here if they can raise their numbers a few points and NDP support continues to level off as it did in this week's Abacus poll.
Abacus Quebec poll shows NDP down 3 points and Liberals up 3 points:
Justin Trudeau appeared here at a rally tonight in Laval for Liberal candidate Eva Nassif, so the next month will reveal whether the Liberals have enough support to challenge the NDP here.
15 08 22 A.S.
Seriously; the broad-based nature of Orange Crush-era NDP support in Quebec is *not* the sort that'd be all wound up in the 'legitimate concerns' Craig Hubley delineates. Maybe if the party were sitting on a 4.27% notional 2011 share--but *not* a 42.70% share.
15 08 18 Craig Hubley
Nunez-Melo has legitimate concerns that will likely resonate with a lot of NDP supporters. http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/18/ndp-defends-online-system-after-mp-bolts-to-greens-over-suspicious-nomination-process/
Apparently 'the final list of voters for the nomination [had] about 80 names on the list that ?looked suspicious,? ... all last-minute additions and had similarly structured email addresses.
Riding Association President Christopher Young admitted that ?some of the emails were mistaken,? but insisted that ?we called each and every one of them individually (and verified) their addresses.? I can't think of any reason to believe that, knowing what I know of NDP riding associations and their Presidents, which tend to handpick candidates and cheat to make them win, when there is a strong conflict between the incumbent and the assoc.
'After issuing his press release against the new system, Nunez-Melo found out, through a journalist, that ?I was excluded (from the nomination process) and that my authorization to participate in that contest was revoked.' That is clearly not proper process in any party or democracy: Questioning the result gets you kicked out of the process without appeal?
Electronic voting is bad technology. There is no way to scrutineer, recount or ensure polling place neutrality in any electronic system. Who knows what appears on the screen two seconds before someone hits the voting button?
I'm not hearing a good reason for Quebecois not to have a single Green MP.
?Jose joins a great team of Quebec Greens ready to fight risky rail and pipeline transport of dangerous materials and demand a real and effective climate plan,? May announced in a statement Monday morning'. Seems Greens have a new riding to volunteer, vote swap, donate and call friends in. It isn't too much to imagine they may put as much as 10% of their national effort into holding this and gaining a breakthrough in Quebec. Thus TCTC.
Unable to run for the NDP, he quit the party.'
15 08 17 Monkey Cheese
Current MP José Nunez-Melo has announced he is running for the Greens after being kicked out of the NDP. He will stand to do better than other Green candidates in Quebec, but I don't think his incumbency bump will be enough to help him. I believe that this will actually benefit the Liberals, who will take advantage from vote splitting from the NDP and the Greens. As of this post, 308 is also showing a slim Liberal lead.
MP actuel José Nunez-Melo a annoncé qu'il est en cours d'exécution pour les Verts après avoir été chassé du NPD. Il se tiendra à faire mieux que les autres candidats verts au Québec, mais je ne pense pas que sa bosse de titularisation sera suffisant pour l'aider. Je crois que ce sera effectivement bénéficier les libéraux, qui vont profiter de la division du vote du NPD et les Verts. Comme de ce post, 308 montre également une avance libéral mince.
15 08 16 Marco Ricci
NDP MP Nunez-Melo announced today that he is joining the Greens and will run for them in this riding. Nunez-Melo & Elizabeth May appeared at a press conference today in Montreal to make the announcement:
15 08 10 Marco Ricci
NDP MP Nunez-Melo has been kicked out of the NDP nomination race for complaining about the NDP nomination process:
This could give the Liberals an opportunity to win this riding, but the Liberals may have to improve their poll numbers in Québec to do so.
15 05 24 Mr. Dave
With the NDP surging in recent Quebec polls and Bloc support below the Conservatives, this should stay in the NDP fold!
15 03 28 monkey
Laval is generally a bellwether and tends to go whichever way the province goes so at this point TCTC.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
A riding which swings with the general whims of the province. At the moment, that's towards the Liberals, especially in the Montreal region. The NDP incumbent is also being challenged for the nomination. That's not usually a good sign. I say Liberal gain.

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