Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:23:16

Constituency Profile


Albinati, Chris

Love, Kimberley

McLaren, David

Miller, Larry

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
   (222/222 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Larry Miller


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15 10 17 Spx
I think on a really bad night for the Conservatives, this one is in play for the Liberals, but there have to be a couple of other riding turning red first before this one will flip. If the Liberals are doing well in St.Catharines, Brantford-Brant, Kithener-South and Perth-Wellington than this one could get close as well. I am still leaning Conservative hold here but I wouldn't be surprised if they were to loose this one.
15 10 17 Jason
The Environics poll was showing the Liberals and Tories in a statistical tie was somewhat surprising. Not sure if Larry Miller's bigoted comments earlier this year had to do something about it. This rural riding does not have many visible minorities, but there are many white rural folk who are against intolerance.
That being said, it is still a long climb for the Liberals to win this riding. If the Liberals win this, then they are headed for a majority government.
15 10 16 Dr. Bear
Woah! Hold on everyone. The liberal momentum seems to have slowed a bit. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a rural riding far from the bright lights on the 416/905 going red just yet. If the liberals do surprisingly well (as the local poll seems to suggest) then watch this to be a next tier target for the grits.
15 10 15 Monkey Cheese
Although I put little stock in Environics, I think that this riding should definitely be put into the TCTC column. Who would have thought that this riding would be competitive? The Liberals are surging in Ontario and I think there will be some strategic voting (despite Harper's insistence that no such thing exists) in this riding to narrowly give them the edge. Larry Miller is suddenly vulnerable and may end up losing his seat now that the Liberals are flirting with majority territory.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll was released for Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound which reports that there is a close Conservative-Liberal race here:
Conservative/Miller (41)
Liberal/Love (40)
NDP/McLaren (16)
Green/Albinati (4)
15 10 13 M
Just saw the results of an Environics riding poll in which the last date of polling was Oct. 11, showing that this riding is a two way battle between the Liberals and Conservatives with 1 percent separating them. With the gain of 11 percent in just 2.5 weeks, then this could very well be a Liberal gain. Clearly the momentum is on the Liberals side.
Liberal 40 (+11 since Sept 21)
Cons. 41 (-2)
NDP 16 (-4)
Greens 9 (-5)
15 10 13 South Islander
Larry Miller is only ahead by 1% according to Environics/LeadNow! Perhaps this is the backlash of voters upset at the Tories' election strategy against the anti-niqab-backbencher-in-chief. This poll also means any strategic voters who were previously hopeless now have a clear choice. Momentum still seems to be working against the Tories. They might yet hold on, but it's no sure thing anymore.
15 10 13 Graham D T
This should be moved to TCTC after today's riding Poll showing 41% support for Miller and 40% for Love. The Vote Together movement is really taking affect here, and many people are unhappy with Harper despite the SW Ontario reputation for being strong Conservative territory. This should be a riding to watch on election night, and has a good chance of going either Conservative or Liberal
15 10 13 CH
With the new Environics poll with the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals at 40%, this seat is no shoo-in for Larry Miller. I'm definitely giving the edge in this riding to Miller, but a mobilized Liberal get-out-the-vote campaign could definitely win this, and the two parties are in a statistical tie. If it was the day before the election with a poll like that, I'd call it Conservative, but 6 days out with the winds blowing towards the Liberals don't be surprised if this seat goes red.
15 10 10 R.O.
Larry Miller has been mp of this riding since 2004 . it is a mostly rural riding but does include the small city of Owen Sound . Miller has a stronger following in the rural portions of the riding . ndp came in second here in 2011 but normally not much of a factor in this riding and often come in 3rd or even 4th during a few years when greens did well here. the riding should stay conservative.
15 10 03 Graham D T
A riding poll done in August showed that this will remain Conservative, but people are buying into the strategic vote and many are voting Liberal to get incumbent Larry Miller out. I guess this will be a conservative hold, but by a smaller margin than before, and this will be Miller's last term in Ottawa representing Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
15 09 02
Conservative hold in B-G-OS. Conservative incumbent Larry Miller has way too strong of a hold in the rural areas that make up a large majority of the population to lose his seat. With that said, not everyone approves of Larry Miller's extreme right beliefs that included his 'stay the hell where you came from' comments on a local radio show, as well as his Adolf Hitler remarks in the house back in 2012. I see Larry Miller getting between 55%-60% of the vote here, and holding his seat.
15 08 20 Elizabeth
Miller's 'stay the hell where you came from' comment likely caused his support to grow in his redneck riding. He'll hold easily, perhaps with 60% support.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
Still calling this Conservative despite Larry Miller's 'stay the hell where you came from', which will appeal to racists in this riding.
308 presently calls this 44% Con / 22% NDP / 19% Lib / 14% Green which is (barely) a 'three way split on the left' that has slim possibility of unseating Miller if his racist remarks are sufficient to anger voters into staying home.
However like Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester, Miller managed to take credit for Harper's weak rural broadband funding (a joke compared to real G7 countries, which seems to target Con ridings amazingly well), That may shore him up enough to be a shoo-in. Re the Greens yes Shane Jolley self-destructed but I suspect they still see it as a long term build.
Re swaps, strong Green candidates get a *lot* of swap-in offers from the rest of Canada, and that's just what we can track. Thousands, in the last election, were left stranded who will not be this time. And only 1 voter in 10000 would have to actually formally swap in the closest swing ridings to change a typical election outcome. So it's quite irrelevant what most or typical voters do, only relevant what a few hundred people do in those ridings that end up close on election day.
Phrases like 'go back where they came from' are motives for all kinds of anti-Miller organizing including swaps but also large scale get out the vote, especially from veterans who realize the huge harm racist talk does. Like, causing wars with people we otherwise have no issue with.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
As much I would like to see Larry Miller lose on the basis of his bigoted statement towards Muslim women, there is no way he's losing here unless the Conservatives absolutely collapse in the polls. Even then this is one of the safest Tory ridings and that isn't going to change any time soon.
15 04 26 Docere
Craig Hubley there was no 'three way split on the left' here. The Conservatives got 56% of the vote in the last federal election and Larry Miller may very well stay above 50% this time. The Green vote in the past is an interesting footnote in an otherwise Conservative rural riding.
15 04 04 A.S.
Never mind 'aren't smart enough'; my feeling is, *unless* the local Greens have a super-duper-star candidate in the offing (a born-again Bill Murdoch?!?) and manage to avoid Shane Jolley-style internal pratfalls, the BGOS disunited-left crowd's more likely to do a Larry Miller and tell Craig Hubley to 'stay the hell where he came from' re his insistence upon vote-swapping as a pile-on panacea for all electoral evil. And *especially* given that another key is to shave off a whole lot of that soft/swayable Conservative support--esp. that which has been rendered all the more soft/swayable by Miller's remarks. And yes, such voters exist. They opted for Miller and CPC as a solid, sensible choice more than out of crazed ideology or bigotry. And they'd still opt for him and them over, well, the kind of rhetoric Hubley's offered in certain other EPP entries. That said, when the 2011 Con tally is 50%+ vs opponents in teens, even allowing for fallout from Larry Miller's big yap it's a bit quixotic to imagine that merely forcing some kind of united opposition front would be enough to overcome this. And if it's any consolation, this isn't one of the more necessary opposition (united or not) gains in the event that the Harpercons lose power. (And to compound the consolation: just because I'm presently predicting CPC doesn't mean the opposition is *totally* out of the running--indeed, relatively speaking, this could be as close a call for the BGOS Cnservatives as we've seen in over a decade federally, and over two decades provincially. Even if more by way of 'normalization'.)
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
Calling it Conservative on the grounds of a three-way split on the left, and this being a long term target of the Greens where they are unlikely to yield ground and where few Green votes will swap out to more winnable ridings. Greens want to break 10% or maybe 15% here in 2015 so that they become one of the 2019 target ridings and thus a swap-in target.
NDP and Liberal however aren't smart enough to see the benefits of ceding a single near-North Ontario seat to the Greens to gain the swap-outs elsewhere, so we're heading for a default vote split and a Conservative win.

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