Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Fiorito, Vince

Gould, Karina

Laird, David

Wallace, Mike

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1400.23%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (278/283 polls, 99.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mike Wallace

   (3/283 polls, 0.79% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lisa Raitt


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15 10 17 Ian
Kyle must have a different local Paper in mind. Metroland is owned by TORSTAR which has faithfully supported the Liberal party for decades. The Burlington Post often ran pictures of Paddy Torsney, just to fill up the space between the ads. It is no surprise that they would endorse her young protege. The voters know this. Mike is safe.
15 10 16 Dr. Bear
I have friends who are campaigning in this riding for the Liberals and they are echoing what Kyle is saying below (it seems they know you Kyle). I am often cautious about making predictions based on anecdotal evidence, but the polling data seems to be backing it up. The liberals are on a roll in Ontario. It is very conceivable now that the Liberals win in a close race. I am seeing parallels between this election and the provincial election in 2014. We all know what happened in that race...
15 10 16 Kyle H
Not sure at what level it still counts, but the Burlington Post - a Metroland paper - endorsed the Liberal candidate Karina Gould in Burlington, as well as Pam Damoff in Oakville North-Burlington: http://www.insidehalton.com/opinion-story/5962698-time-for-change/
This is a paper known for its stringent support of Conservatives over the years, including glowing endorsements of Hudak & McKenna in 2014 and for many other previous elections. For them to support the Liberals and Karina now is a big shift, and a sign that Burlington is ready for change. TCTC.
15 10 15 JC
At this point we are looking at a wave election in Ontario, very few Tory incumbents are safe and Mike Wallace is in a riding that at the federal level has elected a liberal, the liberals are polling in mid to high 40's, and the conservatives around 28-30%, they are polling at 1993 Chrétien sweep levels and I can't see Wallace winning this one.
15 10 14 Ian
Mike Wallace is very good at looking after his constituents. If the local Liberals thought that they had a chance to win this riding, they would have nominated someone local from City Council or the business community. Instead, they drafted someone from the Mexican Trade Commission. Who, by her own admission, left Burlington as soon as she finished high school to travel in Mexico where she got a husband and a career. Neither of these will be much use in looking after the interests of the people of Burlington, especially after an absence of 10 years.
15 10 12 Spx
If the voteshare of the Liberals pick up a little bit more, Burlington as well as neighbouring Milton should both become very close races. Even though numbers technically favour Milton to be the first one to turn red, I believe it would be Burlington though going Liberal. TCTC for now.
15 10 07 Kyle H
I wanted to avoid commenting on here because it is my own riding and I'm deeply involved in the Liberal campaign, but I want to echo what poster O.G. said, who I hope also saw the CFUW debate the following Monday that showcased much of the same thing.
Mike is a nice guy, well known and has been commended on his constituency work, but there has been a very stark sense among people I've talked to of all past affiliations - and given 2011, just statistically I know there are a *lot* of past Tory voters I've met - that he's stuck defending a record that is simply indefensible. There is also a sense of Mr. Wallace, who has spent 9 years in Ottawa, being someone who likes going to parties but managed to accomplish little else with his time in Parliament - something he accused the previous Liberal MP, Paddy Torsney, of doing. I've lived here the entire time he's been in office, and we've rarely heard from him except with BS surveys/partisan ads and a shoddy newsletter. His one major role - being chair of the Justice committee - is saddled with the baggage of things like Bill C-24 and C-51, and also makes him just close enough to the levers of power to be considered an 'insider' with the Harper gov't.
There is not a lot of love lost here for Harper and Wallace is no stronger than any other 2006-year incumbent is, he ain't exactly a superstar. All it will take to flip this riding is a strong anti-Harper sentiment consolidated behind a strong candidate. Let it be said now that Karina Gould is an impressive candidate on paper alone, nevermind meeting her in person - experience factor be damned. Also, David Laird, another nice guy sure, is simply not going anywhere - for the seventh time.
Again, I'm a partisan so take my words as you will, but I think this is easily a swing riding - and if Trudeau's numbers continue to pick up, I can guess which way it will swing.
15 10 07 jeff316
Swing riding this is not! Torsney won her races based on Reform/PC vote cannibalization. The Liberals would have to win every single NDP vote in Burlington, every single Green vote in Burlington, and eat 15 percent of the Conservative vote to even squeak a win here. Private Burlington doesn't wear its colours on its lawns, so the 50/50 Liberal/Conservative sign ration doesn't reflect the actual race. A recent poll showed the Liberals more than 10 points behind Wallace and that's about right.
15 10 04 O.G.
Dr. B., Mike is indeed a lovely fellow but gave a complacent and surprisingly stumbling performance in the C. Of C. all candidates forum. I am not suggesting many will see it or be influenced by it, but it does underscore the problem with the CPC campaign - stand pat policies and MP's too often unused to speaking to the issues beyond scripted talking points. By contrast, the excellent communication skills and impression of knowledgeability of the certainly young Ms. Gould will be readily apparent to constituents who meet her - and by her account she has been working the hustings more or less for a year. I mention my impression of her particularly because the Torsney years remind us that this is a swing riding and that the old core cannot hold Burlington for the Conservatives on its own. I think it will be a two horse race, despite the fact that the other two parties gave good accounts of themselves as well.
Mike may indeed prevail, given the political inexperience of his likely rival, but I wouldn't give much for his chances next time should Karina be prevailed upon to run against him again.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
Even with the current robust numbers for the Liberals in Ontario, I stand by my earlier prediction. The CPC will hold this seat.
15 09 05 R.O.
This has been one of the more reliable conservative ridings in the gta and Mike Wallace has been mp since 2006 . it was a seat the cpc won before they won more competitive ridings in this area. it did go liberal provincially but that election was much different race and not same dynamics provincially . Mike Wallace is also higher profile candidate than new liberal or ndp candidate who has run a few times here. The race here might be closer than 2011 but likely to stick with current mp.
15 08 23 A.S.
Note to jeff316: the NDP actually *did* win a couple of apartment-dominated polls in 2011 (the Liberals won zilch). While some of the eterna-Tory bloom's off the Burlington rose at lower levels (ex-MPP Cam Jackson losing mayoral reelection in 2010, the Liberals stealing the provincial seat in 2014), the seat's also not quite at an Oakville level of retro-Paul Martin Liberal potential, and Wallace's been acceptably moderate enough as representative. And at this point, being adjacent to Hamilton could just as well stimulate a 'Andrew Thomson Dipper' reflex, thus mutually cancelling out the anti-Con vote.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this 80% likely to go Con, with the Liberals as the challengers. Given the young Liberal candidate and the party's falling fortunes and a 14-point lead by an incumbent, it would be lax not to call this one for Con.
15 08 14 jeff316
When the Liberals run youth candidates in Burlington (which for the Liberals is anyone under 35), the Conservatives haven proven their dominance. But maybe the NDP will make it interesting by winning a poll or two?
15 06 03 seasaw
I know I keep writing this comment over and over again, that one must not confuse Federal and Provincial elections or their results. Provincially, this riding was a close Conservative win for the past few elections and it flipped to the Liberals due to a dismal campaign. Federally though, the Conservatine candidate won by almost 32%, even if the Liberals were to close a 19 point gap, provincially and in this riding as well, it won't be enough for them to win.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
I really don't think the Liberals have a good chance at winning this riding. I also believe there are some flaws in the comparison between this race and the provincial race last year. The primary difference is the candidates being offered. The Liberals are offering Ms. Gould, a young woman with an impressive amount of philanthropic work on her resume, however doesn't seem to have experience working in actual politics. Compare this to Ms. McMahon, who has spent many years working in the offices of a variety of Liberals, including Prime Minister Chretien. I think it'll be far tougher for Ms. Gould to win a right-leaning riding without a stronger political background. There is also the matter of the Conservative candidates. Ms. McKenna was certainly not liked by everyone. I don't know why, but it seemed that she had rubbed people the wrong way. This is not the case for Mike Wallace. A friend of mine, who is involved with the Burlington Liberals (who was happily surprised at Ms. McMahon's win last year) described Wallace as 'extremely likable. You want to have a beer with the guy.' That in of itself will help him keep his seat.
Bottom line, I say this will be a Conservative hold...for now. If Liberal numbers rise in Ontario, and especially in the Halton region, this one will flip. For now, I don't see it happening and I suspect the Liberals will be focusing more on easier ridings to win (like Oakville North-Burlington).
15 03 25 Jack Cox
I wouldn't be too quick on the trigger finger, last provincial election this riding dumped its Conservative Incumbent handing it to a liberal MPP for the first time in history. If Tim Hudak didn't play well here with his brand of Conservatism I'm not convinced that Harper's will.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Mike Wallace, well, he's a sales executive with a typical business degree. Chair of the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights, you know, the kind of function that Harper assigns to an empty office. Mike also chairs the Conservative Marine Caucus despite living on a *LAKE*...

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