Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Don Valley West

Prediction Changed
2015-03-16 22:45:17

Constituency Profile


Carmichael, John

Cromwell, Sharon

Hill, Elizabeth

Hunt, Natalie

Kittredge, John

Oliphant, Rob

Riaz, Syeda

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1400.31%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Don Valley West
   (154/185 polls, 87.50% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Carmichael

   St. Paul's
   (31/185 polls, 12.50% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Carolyn Bennett


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15 10 17 MH
Having returned from Europe yesterday, I did most of today's walk tracking what had happened on Sutherland, along which I had walked on September 7. On that day the sign count was: Oliphant 16, Carmichael 11. Today the count was: Oliphant 23, Carmichael 13. Things are looking bad for the incumbent.
15 10 03 Jeff S
Mainstreet poll shows Liberals leading.
15 10 04 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/9/29) Lib 47%, Con 35%, NDP 13%, Green 4%.
15 09 22 R.O.
Don valley west was clearly going to be a difficult riding for conservatives to hold on to for a number of reasons. As it was one they won by a small margin in 2011 and home riding of Kathleen Wynne who has been campaigning for trudeau. The liberals also have a well known candidate as Oliphant was a former mp. But I'm not sure Carmichael is out of the race yet as several weeks remain and with ndp doing well in Toronto its tough to say how some of these ridings will go. Carmichael also goes into this election as the incumbent and that may have increased his profile in the riding. I feel this riding will be one of the closer races in Toronto regardless of which party wins as both times Carmichael and Oliphant faced each other in 2008 and 2011 those elections were won by small margins.
15 09 20 MH
Today I took the last of my sign-counting hikes (tomorrow I leave for three-plus weeks overseas, returning just before the election). This time I walked through North Leaside, along all or part of the following streets: Broadway, Bessborough, Annesley, Hanna, Glenvale, Laird, Fairland, Brentcliffe, Rykert, Thursfield, Donlea, Divadale, Sutherland and Rumsey. The sign count: Oliphant 53, Carmichael 32, Riaz 2. This suggests: (a) the NDP has negligible support in this upper-middle class area (duh, I hear you say); (b) the Oliphant camp have so far been better in identifying and mobilizing their core support than the Carmichael forces. Whatever happens in the rest of the GTA, my assessment that DVW will return to the Liberals stands. But who knows what will happen in the next four weeks ....
15 09 11 MH
Today I did my 5km walk through the Davisville area, south of Eglinton and north of the cemetery, between Mt Pleasant and Bayview. I walked along parts of Banff, Soudan, Forman, Hillsdale, Harwood, Tilson, Belsize, Millwood, Cleveland, Merton, LeMay and Davisville. Conservative prospects do not look good. The sign count so far: Oliphant 36, Carmichael 6, Riaz 1 and Kittredge 1. It seems the John Carmichael campaign has barely got off the ground in this part of the constituency, which was in St Paul's in 2011. At that time the area voted almost 50% for Carolyn Bennett. This time it seems likely to go for Rob Oliphant by a higher percentage, because Justin Trudeau is clearly not the drag on the Liberal campaign that Michael Ignatieff was, and Stephen Harper seems to have become something of a drag on the CPC campaign.
15 09 07 MH
I spent part of my morning walk going the length of Sutherland, the longest road in Leaside. The current sign count: Oliphant 16, Carmichael 11, NDP and Green 0 each. (I don't know who their candidates are.) This is mostly an upper middle-class neighbourhood in which the Conservatives have to do well to have a shot at retaining DVW. Of course, thanks to the eleven-week campaign the government have saddled us with, it's still early days.
Interesting to note: although the signs for Oliphant also carry Trudeau's name, there is no mention of Harper on the Carmichael signs. Is this due to a recognition that the PM's name is a liability this time around? Probably: a recent poll indicated that close to 70% of Canadians want to get rid of the PM. I was in Vancouver and on Vancouver Island last week and noticed that Harper failed to get any billing on the Conservatives' signs there as well. The signs of NDP candidates, like those of the Liberals, did carry Mulcair's name.
15 09 07 K.M.
Oliphant will win this riding. Any NDP votes will be cast this way.
15 08 12 R.O.
One could view John Carmichaels 2011 victory here as a fluke or a result or hard work as he had run twice before in the riding . this riding had historically been one of the most conservative in the city , however in recent years in has been more liberal . it is also riding of Kathleen Wynne at provincial level and may be a riding where she has some influence as she campaigns in this election for the liberals . Rob Oliphant had been the mp for this riding however only for a couple years . its an interesting race here and we might have a better picture as campaign drags on who is doing better here.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
Daniel, the NDP only got about 10% of the vote in this riding in 2011 even during the Layton Wave. They are unlikely to be competitive here unless they were set to win a massive majority government. They aren't competitive provincially here, either. (Last year they got under 10% of the vote against Kathleen Wynne). The fact that the NDP still doesn't have a candidate in place here yet is another reason why an NDP win is also unlikely. The Don Valley ridings really aren't friendly territory for the NDP at either level. In fact, I don't think the NDP itself even expects to be competitive here. This riding is likely to go back to the Liberals, but if it doesn't, it would probably remain Conservative rather than going NDP in the near future.
15 08 09 Follow The Numbers
This is an easy Liberal win based off the current polling numbers alone. Taking a look at the results last time, this should be an easy gain for them. The Conservatives are down and the Liberals are up in Ontario. That should be enough for them to win here unless their campaign becomes a total disaster, which I don't see happening this time.
15 08 03 daniel
The liberals have a strong candidate, but considering liberal's stance on Bill C-51 and sex-ed, it can only hinder their chances. Carmichael is out of the question. If NDP has a strong candidate and strong presence in this riding, they can possibly even win.
15 07 31 Woodworth
There lacks a strong enough NDP presence to help the Tories here. So while Carmichael may finish with around 40% of the vote, Oliphant will be victorious.
15 07 16 Naythan
I have to disagree with the current declaration of this seat going Liberal. This is one of the three North York seats (alongside Willowdale and Don Valley North) which can swing either Lib or Con. Recent riding association numbers came out and the DVW Con association had much more money than the Lib association. Although not a clear indicator of who will win, more money is always helpful. The Libs are running the former MP, which helps, while Carmichael has worked the riding since 2006 before winning as a Con in 2011. Too close to call.
15 07 04 Jimmy in Leaside
Liberal support is falling (one might even say collapsing). In DVW there is serious anger with the Libs in the Islamic community over the Sex Ed curriculum at the provincial level. The NDP vote is surging and they are rumoured to be courting a serious candidate. This will likely be one of the few Conservative holds in Toronto.
15 07 01 HFoster
This riding is interesting in that it has some of Toronto's wealthiest neighbourhoods (Forest Hill, Bridle Path) together with some of Toronto's poorest (Thorncliffe Park & area). For the most part the NDP is irrelevant in this riding, and the race is between the Liberals and the Conservatives. It's likely that there will be some strategic voting on the part of NDP & Green voters, casting their ballots for the Liberals' Oliphant to take down Carmichael, who won by a slim margin in 2011. As a result of this, combined with Oliphant's name recognition as the former MP, this riding should go Liberal.
15 06 14 A.S.
I'd actually offer a bit of contrarian circumspection re this apparent low-hanging-takeback-fruit for the Liberals--yeah, hints of flagging Justinmania (or Wynnemania, for that matter) plays its part; but also, the ghost of DVW's onetime 'safest PC seat in Metro' status endures in how John Carmichael is actually 'plausible' by 416-Con-caucus standards, in a could've-gotten-elected-under-Mulroney sense (hey, if Mayor Tory could get his daughter elected to Council...). But here's another *real* wild card to consider: if the coordinated ethnic/highrise-community-based backlash to provincial sex-ed policy leads to *Thorncliffe*, of all places, swinging in a Conservative (or at least anti-Liberal, all the more so given how both Wynne and Oliphant are gay) direction. Now, for CPC strategic brass, that'd be a dream scenario en route to total domination--already hinted by how this hitherto-elusive demo was readily mobilized by Ford Nation. Of course, it's a scenario so scarily, transparently dreamy that it could wind up backfiring on the Cons instead--but, still: be prepared.
15 05 01 Docere
Don Valley West has fewer 'swingy' Conservatives than other Toronto ridings - even in 1997 the old PCs got 30% of the vote and won a large swath of polls in the wealthy sections. By 2011, there was little room for growth - though enough to put them over the top. Just a small drop in the Conservative vote should put the Liberals over the top. This is also the weakest riding for the NDP in Toronto.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Reasons this riding is now leaning Liberal:
1. Current provincial support levels have this riding returning to the Liberals.
2. This was one of the most narrow Conservative wins in Ontario in 2011 (only about 600 votes) despite a big increase in the Conservative vote in the GTA. Re-distribution gives the Cons an extra point, but that's probably not enough.
3. Former Liberal MP Rob Oliphant is running again.
4. Provincially it is the riding of Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, voting almost 60% Liberal in 2011 & 2014.
5. Wynne & Trudeau campaigned together in the Ontario election last year, so Wynne will probably campaign with Trudeau this year, too.
15 03 31 Stevo
Interesting how for decades Don Valley West was held up as the most Conservative-friendly riding in the 416 (which, given it's the 416, isn't saying much). Things have really changed here, in no small part due to Kathleen Wynne's popularity. I would say this is a near-certain Liberal take-back. The Conservatives would be better-served devoting resources to securing Eg-Law, York Centre, and Etob-Lk.
15 03 28 monkey
The Tories barely won last time around so I suspect the Liberals will retake this nonetheless the Tories have traditionally done well here compared to other 416 ridings so unless they implode nationally they should have a strong second place showing. The one thing though that could allow them to hold this is if Justin Trudeau proposes a large tax hike on the wealthy as this includes a lot of mansions and millionaires so if Trudeau is seen as hostile to them it could hurt his chances.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
West will be closer than east, and the CPC could hold it, but their resources in the 416 are better used in other seats. LPC gain.
15 03 23 MH
Don Valley West narrowly slipped into the Conservative column in 2011. Even if he Conservatives maintain themselves nationally, this constituency will go Liberal. Carmichael has made no impact, and Oliphant has won this before. The NDP will run third; the Greens are not a factor.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
John Carmichael is literally a car salesman, with no accomplishments of note. Rob Oliphant lost due to no fault of his own, and will return. If nothing else Oliphant's high profile among religious constituents will be a factor.

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