Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-11 10:21:40

Constituency Profile


Brunell Solomonovici, Rudy

Buchman, Ethan

Chisholm, Matthew

Mendicino, Marco

Oliver, Joe

Thomson, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (209/209 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Joe Oliver


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15 10 14 Docere
Joe Oliver is done. This is ground zero for strategic voting in Toronto. Marco Mendicino will be the next MP for Eglinton-Lawrence.
15 10 14 Monkey Cheese
Now here is the final nail of Joe Oliver's political career:
Wasn't charging taxpayers for expensive $16 dollar drinks Bev Oda's thing? With the Liberals surging in Ontario and all the projections saying that EL is shifting to the Liberals, I think Joe Oliver is finished.
15 10 13 Marco Ricci
CTV's Robert Fife reported tonight that Conservative sources say they expect Joe Oliver to 'go down to defeat':
15 10 07 DSR
Environics poll (15/10/4) Lib 44%, Con 39%, NDP 14%, Green 3%
15 10 05 Marco Ricci
Surprised that there haven't been any posts here since Mid-September since it is a high-profile riding.
Theoretically this riding is leaning back into the Liberal column, but it's probably TCTC until the final weekend before Election Day. This is the Finance Minister's riding, and Finance Ministers rarely lose. Harper will try to have a large team here to prevent his Finance Minister from going down, as such a thing would be a blow to his Government.
The fading of the NDP probably helps the Liberal chances here since the threat that Andrew Thomson posed to the Liberals at the beginning of the campaign may be less now.
What is needed is an updated riding poll from a respected pollster to give us a sense of who has the momentum here. TCTC.
15 09 14 MH
I drove along Glencairn between Avenue Road and Caledonia yesterday and want to change my prediction. The score was Mendicino 51, Oliver 26, Thomason 6. Oliver signs dominate east of Bathurst and around the Bathurst-Glencairn intersection, but west of Bathurst is mostly Mendicino country until you get near Caledonia, where there were a handful of Thomson signs. Glencairn passes through a range of neighbourhoods. On the basis of what I saw I'm willing to retreat from my Conservative call last week. Reflecting the views of more than one analyst, I now think E-L may be leaning to the Liberals. In any case it is no longer a clear CPC hold.
15 09 13 R.O.
With the overall election still very close my though is this riding will be one that isn't decided till final week of campaign . even when considering polls that indicate liberals have a lead in 416 , I still think this is one riding that will remain close. If Joe Oliver wasn't running for re-election here its likely cpc wouldn't focus as much on this riding .but with economy one of the main issues of election and Oliver the finance minister they have to. also I don't see how the ndp could win Eglinton Lawrence even if they have a bit higher profile candidate than before in Andrew Thomson. In all my years following politics I can't ever recall an election when Eglinton Lawrence was ever seen as a possible ndp riding even though the ndp hold a number of other 416 ridings.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
It's certainly possible that the entry of an NDP 'star candidate' into the riding could 'split the vote' and help re-elect Joe Oliver. But that is but one of several possible alternatives.
It's also possible that with the Liberals having now moved into 1st place in Ontario and the Conservatives having fallen into 3rd place Nationally that the momentum could shift in favour of Mendocino.
308 currently shows Liberal chances rising here -- to an 80% chance of a win.
Previous riding polls have tended to show greater support for Joe Oliver, although it's possible his support has fallen after the 'Men's Club' embarrassment he got into last week and his tendency to hide from the press.
15 09 07 MH
By nominating a star candidate in Eglinton-Lawrence the NDP have very probably guaranteed Joe Oliver's survival. The NDippers have no real chance of winning this seat, but they will likely take enough votes from Mendocino to allow Oliver to gain re-election.
15 09 04 QuébecCityOliver
There is nothing inherently Liberal-Conservative in this riding. To assume otherwise is to ignore Volpe's declining vote share from 70% to below 40%in 2011.
In other words, why would voters stay loyal to the Liberals when they have a better choice in the NDP. Of course, this presupposes that the NDP look like they are going to win.
15 09 01 Jason
II am sure Mulcair's team knows that Andrew Thomson will not win Eglinton-Lawrence. Thomson, as a former SK finance minister, is there to contrast the dynamics between the NDP and Conservatives on the economy file.
Thomson does erase whatever advantage the Liberals had in this North York riding. Now it will be TCTC.
I'm predicting Marco Medicino and Joe Oliver getting about 35-37% of the vote, with the NDP receiving 24% of the vote.
15 08 30 jawnbc
The NDP candidate will prove to be a stroke of brilliance, the key to a vote-splitting Oliver victory, or inconsequential. But in putting their presumptive Finance Minister against the current FM--whilst the current party in power is bleeding support--the Dippers may have rewritten the ballot question for Eglinton-Lawrence: would you rather have your MP be the FM (assume the NDP remains on track to win the election), or the former FM of a defeated government? Let's see what local polling shows us in mid-September.
15 08 29 Mark
Eglinton-Lawrence is a hot riding. Without a name or flash NDP candidate, the NDP wouldn't get a slice of the significant regional and national airtime that this riding will get. That's the only reason for Andrew THomson's candidacy. Andrew Thompson's entry is meaningless to the dynamics of this race. None of the nonnas or bubbies or lolos care about a former finance minister form the prairies. Oliver will hold, but it might be tight.
15 08 26 Monkey Cheese
The Environics poll only has Joe Oliver leading by 1% and that is within the margin of error. That means it would only take a marginal shift of strategic NDP and Greens to vote Liberal to take down the Harper finance minister.
Oliver also found himself in recent controversy. He was slated to appear at a men's only club only to cancel by saying that 'something came up'. I'm pretty sure that 'something' was the fact that why would he speak at such a club in the first place? Between this, the snubbing of the women's issues debate, and the misogynistic comments from Quebec candidates, the Conservatives will be taking a hit with the female demographic. This will be a nail-biter to the bitter end, but I still stand by my Liberal prediction for EL.
15 08 24 RJC
Oliver is in bad shape if you believe that Environics poll. Among all voters, he leads, but with only 33%, compared to 32% for the Liberals and 23% for the NDP. Among decided voters, it's a similar picture: 36% for him, just one point up on the Liberals (with the NDP at 25%). There is a margin of error, of course, but it's looking increasingly like he can only win if the Liberals and NDP split the vote badly (and frankly, that might just happen...)
15 08 23 Recovering political junkie
My oh my have times have changed. This was safest Liberal seatin English Canada. Survived the 1984 Mulroney landslide. I was fuming when I read media refer this a Tory stronghold. I hate that term. I am picking the Cons because I believe the strong NDP candidate will hurt Liberals chances. Liberals could finish third. Liberals aren't the incumbent, so vote splitting will hurt them more than it would either wise.
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 1% with the NDP doubling its support over 2011 election.
15 08 21 AJ
A recent Environics poll puts voting intentions in this riding at 33% CPC, 32% LPC, 23% NDP, 4% Green and 8% undecided. This was with a sample size of 588, which is strong for a riding poll, and a margin of error of 4.0% (https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf).
When this poll is compared against the 2011 results in this riding (47% CPC, 38% LPC, 12% NDP and 3% Green), it is clear that NDP support has increased since then, and much of that seems like it may well have come from past CPC voters here. The Liberal vote is, when margin of error is considered, not much different from 2011, but the CPC and NDP vote have both seen much more significant shifts, with the former down noticeably and latter up.
The NDP may also have internal numbers that strongly suggest they are taking away 2011 votes from Joe Oliver, as well as other data that indicates a significant amount of growth potential in this riding. Interestingly, this poll suggests that a possible CPC-NDP vote split could produce a victory for Mendicino, but a strong local campaign would definitely give the NDP a shot at winning the seat with Thompson, especially if they can bring past LPC voters onto their side. Without an Italian candidate, though, that might be a challenge. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of time left to go.
15 08 17 Monkey Cheese
I don't think that the NDP parachuting in a Finance Minister from Saskatchewan will be as destructive to the Liberals as some Conservative posters might think. They are forgetting that the candidate has no local ties to the riding, whereas Marco Mendicino has many local ties and is backed by the popular MPP, Mike Colle. Marco would make a great Justice Minister should the Liberals ever form government. 308 is still projecting EL as a Liberal gain. The Saskatchewan Finance Minister might make the debate more interesting, but in the end, the ABC vote and fed up Conservatives will rally behind Marco Mendicino.
15 08 16 Swellow
The introduction of the strong NDP candidate just makes it all the more hard for the Left to choose a candidate to rally behind. Considering this is already the safest Tory seat in the 416, Joe Oliver may have just been secured a win.
15 08 15 seasaw
This is one tough call, especially now, with Liberals not nominating Eve Adams. On one hand you have Joe Oliver, a okay finance minister, well known and fairly well liked. Then there's the Liberal candidate, also popular, and remember this is a riding that the Liberals won quite handily since inception. It did not go Tory in Mulroney's massive majority. Not much can be said about NDP parachuted candidate who has no roots in the riding. Sure, he was a pretty good Finance Minister, but that's in Saskatchewan and Eglinton-Lawrence is not Saskatchewan. We have to wait till the last days of campaign to be able to predict this one, but we know it's going to be between Liberals and Conservatives.
15 08 15 Annex Resident
This will be an interesting race, but the Liberals will win. Anger at the Conservatives for the poor state of the Canadian economy and the secretive nature of Harper's government will cause problems for incumbent MP and finance minister Joe Oliver. While the NDP have nominated a candidate that Mulcair is very invested in (former Sask finance minister Andrew Thompson), the lack of local ties for the NDP candidate will make him an unlikely choice for voters. For the Liberals, the support of the long-standing and popular MPP Mike Colle of the federal candidate Marco Mendicino will be a boost. Furthermore, Mendicino's long-standing ties to the constituency, strength on justice and security issues, and Trudeau's visit and popularity will boost the Liberal campaign. The Eve Adams situation will be long-forgotten by election day now that she is not the candidate and not diminish Mendicino's campaign.
15 08 14 Craig Hubley
Andrew Thompson is the NDP candidate here. The ex-Saskatchewan Finance Minister. He has no profile in Ontario and is not well known. However, as a Finance Minister, he is well qualified to attack Oliver's claims and credentials. He also potentially could attract some of Oliver's core vote on the promise that this riding could again elect a Finance Minister.
Or, he could split the vote more NDP less Liberal and hand it to Oliver. This campaign is getting started so late I don't think it will win, so the impact on the Con v. Lib race is unpredictable. Leaving this TCTC for sure until election day. This just became a very interesting race indeed.
15 08 14 Mworkin Mage
Andrew Thomson does not have enough clout in the riding to win, but he may be able to attract enough centre-left support to the NDP to ensure that Joe Oliver is re-elected.
15 08 14 OgthDim
If all politics is local, how come the NDP parachuted in a finance minister candidate? Locally, the only thing an ex Finance Minister from Sask does is solidify the NDP vote.
Advantage CPC in this riding now, I'd say. Still to close to call but that candidate hurts the Libs more then the Tories.
15 08 14 Expat
I had previously called this riding for the Liberals when it was a contest between Joe Oliver and not-Eve Adams Liberal candidate, but with the surprise announcement of the star NDP candidate I have to change it to TCTC.
The NDP running former Saskatchewan finance minister Andrew Thomson is a game-changer, in a completely unpredictable way. The contrast is already being made of a 2 term fin-min with 2 balanced budgets and billions in surpluses against a fin-min with 2 deficit budgets and billions in debt.
This is not a friendly NDP riding, so this is an unpredictable race favoring Oliver now until some new riding polling comes out, and as the new highest profile race in the country it will happen!
Reference: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-recruit-former-saskatchewan-finance-minister-to-run-against-joe-oliver/article25965876/
15 08 14 Jeff S
Former Sask finance minister Andrew Thomson is being parachuted in for the NDP. Good news for Oliver.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Despite what some are calling a debate 'win' (or rather not a washout) by Justin Trudeau, and despite a year of polling showing that no so-called Orange wave or crush has any chance of shifting Eglinton-Lawrence, this week's Forum poll says Joe Oliver will win it because of solid NDP vote that isn't shifting anywhere. Maybe they haven't heard the right offer yet (their votes could elect several NDPers if swapped to other ridings) but at present, this remains too close to call with Oliver's vote above 40%
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
Eve Adams is forgotten. Only Liberal and Conservative members seem to care. She didn't get the nomination, so that factor is effectively nil.
Joe Oliver is sufficiently hated to attract many non-voters to vote, for instance, anyone who has a poor friend or relative whose OAS was cut off so that a rich 67+ year old can fill up their yacht or play some extra golf. CARP continues to stand firmly for a clawback and restoral of OAS to 65 and 66 year olds. That will matter a lot in a riding with a lot of prosperous 50-somethings in it who live in the city - thus all know some poor people. There are no safe seats for Conservatives in the 416, nor now Brampton or Mississauga.
In other ridings (Yukon, Guelph, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Thunder Bay-Superior North) I argued that national party focus and tactics would work strongly against the third-place Liberals. In this seat it will work strongly in their favour. Deposing a sitting Finance Minister is a very big prize, one that could cause Harper to resign even if he got the most seats in October, rather than trusting a new face to shepherd a Throne Speech and then a budget through a hung parliament. The stakes are huge.
Remember Elizabeth May targetting Gary Lunn? Now it's Joe Oliver's turn.
Greens are by far the most enthusiastic vote swappers and cross-riding volunteers and donors. But Liberals in hopeless positions in the many new Con vs. NDP ridings are just as motivated to offer their votes to the NDP if their friends in Eglinton-Lawrence vote Liberal to defeat Joe Oliver. Greens and NDP supporters here will be the first to offer such swaps to their friends in Yukon, Guelph, Victoria. A UK article about another Green get-out-the-vote campaign argues that there are no safe seats in the social media era. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/feb/27/internet-era-politics-means-safe-seats-are-a-thing-of-the-past
Voters interested in fairness and electoral reform will want to make sure that Liberals gain a few seats back for what they will lose in tactical voting as a third place party. There are many more such fairness-minded voters than you think. This seat goes Liberal because Canadians are fair. Fair to seniors. Fair to each other. Fair to even third and fourth parties nationally (which means in this election, Greens & Libs).
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
As it's been confirmed that Eve Adams is not the Liberal candidate, I have to think that they are favored. Joe Oliver is proving to be an incompetent finance minister. Troubling economic news and the now assured recession is going to hurt him here, especially when faced with a strong Liberal candidate. I'm reiterating my call of this riding being a Liberal gain. Joe Oliver is past his 'best before' date and should have taken his walk in the snow by now, but I suspect the people of his riding will give him that chance.
15 08 03 Docere
Eglinton-Lawrence is a tough call, and I've held off making a submission until the Liberal candidate was chosen. Certainly, Marco Mendicino was the better choice than Eve Adams, a carpetbagger from Mississauga and subject of ridicule. Had she been the candidate, Joe Oliver would easily have won and even the NDP could have made a semi-serious play for the riding, pulling votes away from the Liberals. With Mendicino as candidate, I'm leaving it TCTC at the moment. On the one hand, Oliver is high profile and enjoys the advantage of incumbency, and the Liberals aren't in a position to win a lot of seats in Ontario at the moment. On the other hand, this is a riding where 'strategic voting' clearly favors the Liberals and a rising NDP could not be much of a factor at all.
15 08 03
Joe Oliver should have retired. Marco Mendicino will now be able to concentrate on Joe Oliver after winning the nomination from Eve Adams who would not have got the job done against Oliver. It won't be a cake walk, but I see the Liberals re-taking this riding now
15 08 02
A Mendicino win far from guarantees the Liberals retaking this riding. The Eve Adams affair was a national controversy for Trudeau and it reeked. As Finance Minister, Joe Oliver is the most powerful/influential minister in the GTA and won't be easily knocked out, notwithstanding the swing riding. If the election campaign continues to be polarized between NDP-CPC with the Liberals at a distant third, Joe Oliver's chances of re-election will grow.
15 07 30 R.O.
Well this had historically been a liberal riding the race had been tightening in recent years to the point the tories were able to win here . Joe Oliver is a high profile and well liked cabinet minister and feel he has an advantage here . it is a 416 riding but conservatives will still be competitive in ridings where they have found support in recent years like this riding. I do think Eve Adams would have been an easier liberal candidate to beat as she wasn't from riding and seems to stir up controversy where ever she goes. The riding sort of reminds me of Vaughan another previously safe liberal riding that went conservative when Julian Fantino won first in by election than he got re elected. Mendicino is maybe a better liberal candidate than Adams but he is still going up against an incumbent minister and conservatives have a lot of money and resources to help candidates like Oliver .
15 07 29 Prime Predictor
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals so quickly. While Adams would've been easier to beat, Oliver already beat an Italian candidate when he wasn't Finance Minister. It's also hard to say how where the Liberals end up (polls not great for them now, although that can change). TCTC.
15 07 29 MH
With Eve Adams now sidelined, Joe Oliver's shot at re-election has become iffy. The odds of a Liberal recapture of the seat look better than even. Mr. Oliver's position as Minister of Finance, normally a plus, could become a liability as it becomes clearer that his promise of a balanced budget can't and won't be met. In order to keep his seat, he must hope that the NDP will eat significantly into Liberal support. Still TCTC.
15 07 28 Expat
This riding is ready to call now!
Eve Adams nomination loss, while another blow to Trudeau and his judgement, is a win for Marco Mendicino and for the local Liberal party.
Adams would have lost this riding due to (among other things) disengaged sign-up members and demoralized Liberal grassroots, but Mendacino will rally the base and make it a recovered riding. Oliver may be finance minister, but he can't survive the prevailing anti-Conservative trend. In most ridings that currently favors the NDP, but here the Liberals will be the beneficiary.
15 07 26 MGK
The Eglinton-Lawrence Liberals wisely chose to nominate an Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal instead of an Oakville Conservative. That should help them win the riding.
15 07 26 Marco Ricci
Marco Mendicino wins Liberal nomination for Eglinton-Lawrence
15 07 26 Monkey Cheese
Now that Eve Adams is not the Liberal candidate, I think that Joe Oliver is in serious danger of losing this riding. Bad economic news and stronger polling numbers for the Liberals in Ontario since 2011 will be enough bring Joe Oliver down. There's a reason the Conservatives fear Marco Mendicino. He will be the next MP for Eglinton-Lawrence.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Joe Oliver had strong support even before 2011. It'll be tight, especially if the Liberals nominate an Italian. However, he's also a high-profile Minister. CPC hold.
15 07 15 ME
Joe Oliver is not up on the economy...it is obvious he is not in charge and did not see the recession coming nor the upcoming budget deficit...OTOH Eve Adams has too much baggage to win any election. Those who want change must vote NDP or accept an incompetent taking the riding..
15 07 15 MH
It's still too soon to call this one, but provided the Liberals don't nominate Eve Adams this seat seems ready to return to the Liberal fold (it seems less likely to go NDP). Mr. Oliver's recent comments about the economy are out of touch with reality, as the Bank of Canada's action today has made abundantly clear, and he himself seems to be well past his best-before date. At age 75 it's time to retire and leave the fight to younger folk. Unfortunately for Mr. Harper, there's no one on the Conservative front benches who looks like a credible replacement, so Mr. Oliver it will have to be. The fate of C.D. Howe awaits.
15 07 01 HFoster
The Liberal controversy in Eglinton-Lawrence has been brought onto the national stage, with people like former Liberal Leader Bob Rae and local MPP Mike Colle taking sides in the Liberal nomination. While the infighting is taking place, Joe Oliver's campaign has already kicked off. The NDP do not have enough support to win in this riding this election, but can play spoiler. It's possible that Liberals sour with the Adams-Mendicino affair may vote NDP or Green in protest, especially if Adams wins the nomination. As a result, it's possible Joe Oliver will be easily re-elected if Eve Adams wins the Liberal nomination, but will win by a smaller margin if it is Marco Mendicino.
15 06 06 A.S.
The tragedy of a potential Eve Adams candidacy stealing defeat from the jaws of finance-minister-decapitation victory is that, well, the Liberals *are* the only viable non-Con option in E-L--or at least, what passes for the local NDP machine has tailspun to the point where this seat saw the worst provincial ONDP result in 2014. And it isn't like E-L should be *that* deep of a black hole: Lawrence Heights + virtually everything W of the Allen Road is the kind of zone which, in different riding configurations, would be likelier as a Liberal-NDP marginal--and of course, a lot of this territory is onetime municipal Howard Moscoe country (and wouldn't some of it also be the eastern reaches of where David Lewis once ruled?). As it stands, if Eve Adams runs, expect a NOTA bottom-feeding nose-holding 'bump' for NDP/Green--that is, unless the NDP took some Alberta elixir and actually *tried*...
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
Joe Oliver's recent comments about loosening labour laws to make it easier to fire people, along with his other gaffes, will come back to bite him. This will be a riding to watch on election night. The current numbers favour the Liberals and it'll be interesting to see who they nominate.
15 05 28 ME
Joe Oliver has done a Hudak....proposing looser Labour Laws which will spur the economy by making it easier to layoff workers...Much like Tim's comment about firing 100,000 workers Joe has now made it possible the riding to be taken by the NDP...What is the difference between genius and stupidity? Genius has its limitations
15 05 12 MH
Until the Liberals nominate a candidate, and perhaps even after that, this one is TCTC. Eglinton-Lawrence slipped into the Conservative column in 2011, but it's not clear that Mr. Oliver can keep it there if there is, as seems very likely, a shift, even a modest one, back to the Liberals in the 416. But it's early days yet, and the local Liberals may nominate Ms. Adams. In that case Oliver will have a definite edge.
15 04 22 Rational Optimist
If Eve Addams winds up with the nomination here, then it's a Tory hold for sure. Even if not her, I would give the advantage to Oliver. It is hard to defeat a sitting Finance Minister- unless things go very poorly for the Tories, he will retain the seat. Tory volunteers will be working very hard to keep at least something within the old city.
15 04 09 Jason
Joe Oliver is a high profile incumbent, but that should not be mistaken for being a popular incumbent. He may as well be defeated in a tide.
That being said, the Liberals are not doing as well as they should be in the GTA. There could be an interesting scenario where Conservatives lose seats in the outskirts while holding a seat in central 416.
15 04 19
The demographics in this riding are changing. People are moving to Thornhill. Wish we knew more, but, you know...census. Hard to beat a sitting finance minister, but the riding is not beholden to Oliver as much as to a party. If the Tories start to tank, this riding will flip.
15 04 06 ottawa99
Oliver's high profile within the government could be perceived as an asset, but if public opinion continues to turn against the Tories this could easily become a disadvantage. This riding stayed Liberal right up until the 2011 disaster, through two minority Conservative governments. Given that the Liberals seem to have a respectable chance of forming government this time around, it seems likely that the Liberals will take this back. If the Liberals start to fall substantially behind the Tories in the polls, this could fall back into the Tory column.
15 04 04 Carleton Students
Fallsview Resident is right to state that Ms. Adams is not the candidate yet. However, after Orleans, Tri Spa, Vancouver South, etc we all know JT's track record on open nominations.
15 03 29 JC
I'm going to say the Liberals will take it, I'm believing Adams will move over to Oakville North-Burlington now that Max Khan has passed away, it makes all the sense in the world, even if she doesn't I believe Marco Mendicino will win the nomination and he will easily have a better chance at winning this.
15 03 29 Fairview Resident
I am amazed at how many people think Eve Adams is the Liberal candidate in Eglinton-Lawrence. She is not. She has declared her intention to seek the nomination. She needs to convince Liberal voters in the riding that they should pick her. Incumbent MPP Mike Colle has declared that she will run for the party in E-L over his dead body. A poll of the riding puts her way behind Oliver, Colle ahead but did not ask about a generic Liberal candidate. I have a hard time seeing her win the nomination, so she is the straw woman argument for a Tory hold.
Oliver will lose because 1) the riding has a natural Liberal tilt, 2) the economy is taking a turn for the worse under Oliver's watch, 3) the postponement of the budget makes it look like he's in over his head, and 4) the Liberals have closed the 20-point gap that existed in Ontario in 2011. Whoever the Liberal candidate is (and it won't be Adams) will benefit from the Liberal base in the riding and will be able to make hay over Oliver and the economy's poor performance. Oliver's prestigious cabinet post and 8-point win in 2011 aren't enough when his performance is weak and his party loses its edge and its lead.
15 03 28 monkey
If the Tories hold any 416 seats, this is without question their best one. With Joe Oliver being finance minister that no doubt helps but doesn't guarantee. If Eve Adams runs here, that even improves the Tories odds of winning although still not a guarantee as a lot will depend on national numbers.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
I know it is in Toronto, but why is this too close to call. The finance minister against a former CPC MP who was removed from the CPC because she broke the rules in Oakville, and is now going to run for JT. Goodbye Eve, no one will miss you up here in Ottawa. EPP, put this in the CPC column ASAP.
15 03 25 Stevo
Seems likely that the Conservatives will lose a good number of their seats in the GTA as the region partially reverts back to its status as a Liberal fiefdom. This means the Tory team will focus on a smaller number of seats that they think they can hold, and this one with the Finance Minister as MP is first among them. TCTC with the edge to the Conservatives.
15 03 24 JC
I don't have a prediction for this one yet, but it basically depends on who wins the Liberal Nomination, if it's Mendicino then Oliver should start packing his bags, if it's Adams then Oliver should hang on.
15 03 22 Mrz
Assuming Eve Adams gets the nod for the Liberals, finance minister Joe Oliver will return to Ottawa.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Joe Oliver, Finance Minister and front man for ecocide, genocide and climate denial, should have lost this riding easily to any Liberal worth a damn.
However, it appears that the infamous Eve Adams and Dmitri Soudas have been cleared to chase the Liberal nomination here. Even as Christine Innes and Tony Ianno were blocked for bullying in Trinity-Spadina for doing exactly what Adams and Soudas were doing in the Conservatives... This is a major lack of integrity and perceived fairness for Trudeau.
Mike Colle and perhaps a few others may be finding a challenger to make sure Adams doesn't get the nod.
However, if Soudas actually brings a backup copy of the Conservative Information Management System (CIMS) with him, and would share it with Trudeau if Adams wins the nomination, that would decide the matter. Data is everything. It's hard to imagine crooks like Adams and Soudas being welcomed into the Liberals so warmly without something like that on offer.
For reasons I outlined in my Etobicoke Centre prediction, this will be a dirty election. Certainly nabbing the other party's whole database is worth a sacrificial nomination and some embarrassment. Let's hope it's so.

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