Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-16 10:25:50

Constituency Profile


Dineen, Tristan

Fekri, Alexander

Klevering, Kornelis

Kovach, Gloria

Longfield, Lloyd

Miller, Gord

Seagram, Andrew

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5830.98%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (213/215 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Frank Valeriote


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15 10 18 XM
It really is too close to call. Guelph more than any other riding is an experiment on whether local politics and candidates matter anymore in Federal politics or whether Federal politics have become all about national coverage and national leaders. (Liberal) Lloyd Longfield's campaign has been limp and embarrassing. He has spend the last month banging the strategic voting drum and begging for money. It's now the last week of the election and instead of talking about GOTV he has put out yet another public plea for money. (Conservative) Gloria Kovach has been almost invisible making few public appearances. Her campaign says she has been knocking on doors but there haven't been any noticeable Conservative foot canvassing presence. The idea that the Conservatives could take Guelph is a joke so Lloyd strategic voting campaign is a very cynical ploy. Meanwhile Gord Miller (Green) has been a dominate local presence in the riding. Gord has sponsored the local Friday hockey games for the last three weeks, and had volunteers giving Gord4Guelph hockey cards to kids. The two local paper's have both been weekly wrapped in in Green Gord for Guelph wrappers. Gord handily won every debate. Both the federal Greens and the provincial Greens have brought in staff and volunteers from across the province. Green canvassing teams have been out every night. Gord's an all star candidate whose got a personal endorsement from David Suzuki. And Elizabeth has done three full house events with Gord. Comparatively Justin Trudeau did events in Brampton and Kitchen without stopping in Guelph. The provincial and federal Green party have put all their resources into a break out in Guelph. And Gord has used those resources to put on a campaign the likes of which Guelph has never seen. But despite Lloyd's weak showing Guelph has been a Liberal stronghold and the National momentum and narrative as swung in the Liberal's favour. My prediction is that Gord's campaign will be able to pull over 20 000 votes in GOTV. It may not be enough to overcome Liberal momentum and Llyod might end up winning despite himself. However my bet is local campaigns still matter so my prediction is Gord for Guelph.
15 10 18 prognosticator15
By now, I am ready to call this Liberal. Polling momentum for the party is clear in Toronto area and Guelph will follow this pattern as it is much more driven by Toronto trends than the rest of Southwestern Ontario, so Justin's junk celebrity moment is likely to spread here, with progressives, union interests, and wasteful junk science funding interests (not least of 'environmental justice' anti-development variety) falling in line, for the most part. I was pondering earlier a possibility of a Cons win with an undoubtedly strong candidate as well as of a Green win, but these parties do not really make progress (NDP was weak from the start). Conspiracy theorist Elizabeth May who avoids media scrutiny in part due to the minor status of her party surely wants to pick this one and Victoria and spends much time here, but hardly makes things better - well, she will still have her mini-Green dictatorship in her own riding. Here, in a choice between pragmatic and known wasteful spender party benefiting University-related interests and an uncertain ideological outlet of progressivist indoctrination, Longfield has it, Greens and Cons will fight for the second place. As for his 'dirty' ads, they are done for a reason - they may serve the purpose as long as they appeal to real concerns of people and successfully paint opponents as poor in addressing these concerns, and with Guelph liberal (small 'l') demographics, might just do the trick - people will not switch to Kovach nor to other progressivist parties because of negative ads alone. Liberal hold.
15 10 17 Nick
I have lived in this riding for over 10 years and every federal election people make predictions about a Green victory but it has never come close to materializing. I'm not quite sure what makes people think that the Greens are strong here. It is true that there is a significant segment of the population that is motivated by environmental issues in Guelph but this has never translated into Green votes...the party barely registered in 2011 despite people making bold predictions. As for the claims that the Libs and Greens are running neck and neck, I have seen no evidence of this. Most progressive voters I know are voting Liberal to block the Conservative candidate, which seems to be the most persistent pattern here.
15 10 16 Progressive Voter
This riding appears to be swinging in the Greens' favour.
It's becoming clearer that Ms. Kovach does not pose a threat of being elected, and it is truly shaping up to be a Red-Green race in Guelph.
GPC Leader Elizabeth May was in Guelph for the third time yesterday night, and the venue was packed. I stopped by a bit late to hear what she had to say and was turned away because the hall had hit capacity - that kind of thing doesn't happen unless a campaign has momentum, especially considering it was Ms. May's third such rally in Guelph over the course of the election campaign.
Mr. Longfield has been playing up the strategic voting argument over the last few weeks, rather than focusing on his impressive credentials and the Liberal policy book. Although I can sympathize with this (as I do normally vote ABC) it is looking more and more like a desperate attempt to shake off soft Green votes to the Liberals. This has just convinced me even more than Mr. Miller can win in this riding.
It will be a close race, but my prediction is a Green win.
15 10 15 Docere
Guelph is another one of those 'wouldn't it be interesting' ridings if the NDP displaced the Liberals as the dominant center-left party. But that is clearly not happening and the Liberals will not be losing any seats in Ontario.
15 10 14 CM
It's shaping up to be a very close two-horse race here in Guelph with the Liberals and Greens running neck at neck. The long campaign had left its toll on both the Seagram and Kovach campaigns. The incumbent Liberal campaign looked strong out the gate and looked tough to beat, even with the Greens running the highest calibre candidate in Gord Miller, but Longfield's campaign has resorted to scare tactics and fear-based negative campaigning to drive voters away from the ballot box. Rather than talking about issues that matter to the people of Guelph, the Liberal campaign has spiralled downward in such a way that indicates that they're tired, worn-out, and simply lacking grit.
I'm not much for supporting a 'fringe party' like the Greens, but their campaign is picking up steam at the right time and Gord Miller (former Ontario Environment Commissioner) is the kind of guy you want fighting for you in the halls of power. With a week to go this seat will go RED or GREEN when the pools close on Election Day.
Will the Greens be able to mobilize enough supporters to get out to the polls on Election Day? Will the Longfield campaign continue to resort to attack ads and voter suppression tactics? Who gets to decide? The people of Guelph.
I'd like to see more civility and independence in the house of commons, which is why I'll give the edge to the Gord Miller campaign.
15 10 08 Marc Cohen
The Greens definitely have the best ground game this time and it seems like they are outspending the other candidates by a mile! Even though there has been strong Greenie campaigns here before, this one definitely is more polished.
NDP/Cons not a factor. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greens and liberals duke it out for the win in the early 30% range with the Con/NDP vote at 35% inclusive.
Guelph might be Green on E-day.
15 10 08 s
I'm changing my prediction from Liberal to TCTC. Why? For the last 12 days, Longfield has been running dirty attack ads against Kovach and as of today, against Miller as well. These ads'll make US Republican attack ads look like a picknick. Not only that, in the debates, he's been extremely rude and arrogant, I've spoken to many people who have met him personally, and their opinion's unanimous, he rubs people the wrong way. Many people here want to vote for Gloria, but they say they can't because of Harper. A week from now, if a Harper defeat becomes a sure thing, who's to say that they won't cahnge their mind ? This riding could become 2015 federal version of 2003 provincial Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, which John Yakabousky took a long held Liberal riding.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
I don't see Gord Miller being competitive here unless there is a reliable riding poll by a good pollster showing that. The Greens have run other strong campaigns here but have never been able to finish higher than 3rd. The Liberals are up in support this year, and this riding has been Liberal federally and provincially for many elections now. The weakness of the NDP in Ontario right now helps the Liberals, as well. The Greens have actually lost support over the course of this election Nationally, and it appears only Liz May is expected to win for the Greens in B.C.
Btw, prognosticator15 referred to the 'Valeriote personality-based vote.' It's important to remember that while Valeriote was well-respected and popular in Guelph, he was *not* Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester). This riding was *already* Liberal when Valeriote arrived here. He was popular but he didn't have the personal popularity of a Bill Casey who can win a traditionally Conservative riding. Valeriote continued on a Liberal voting tradition that already existed here.
15 10 01 Dave
I have been following this riding quite a bit. It will definitely be a close race but I think there is a strong possibility of electing a Green MP here. Gord Miller is very knowledgeable and people of all political stripes seem to connect with him. He won't have a whipped vote so that's one major factor voters will consider when casting their ballot. What might be a game-changer here is if (Progressive) conservatives & ndp voters back Gord Miller to overcome the Liberals. It will be a tough sell but if they conside proportional representation as an option for the follow-up election, it will be worth their strategic vote for the Greens.
All-in-all, this is a riding to keep your attention on
15 10 01 carpentier
Any of the four parties can take Guelph, but Greens are better organized and have most motivated constituency. They should finally take this after several attempts.
15 09 30 Craig Hubley
I called this Liberal very long ago before Gord Miller was nominated. I withdraw that prediction on the following grounds:
1. The Liberal is so unattractive to progressive voters that usual NDP supporters and leftish Liberals are looking closely at the Greens.
2. Conservative support is not recovering here as much as elsewhere in Ontario.
3. Guelph is a university town with all the student vote and organizing that entails, and a progressive agricultural university at that, which should be easy campaign grounds for a former Environmental Commissioner of Ontario who got both anti-SLAPP law and neonicotinoid ban in Ontario (!)
4. As of Monday all candidate nominations are over and the Green volunteers, donors and calls across riding borders will be going to Guelph. Miller is the closest winning prospect to the GTA and will be getting the entire Toronto Green contingent commuting and sleeping on couches to support him. He is well known in Toronto and *VERY* popular.
5. Guelph ON and Fredericton NB are the only good Green prospects east of Bruce Hyer's campaign and are attracting basically *ALL* the Green Party of Canada's attention in Southern Ontario and the Maritimes respectively. The campaigning here will be extraordinary. So will the measures taken, including student vote buddying-up, military base visits, and vote swaps that should attract thousands of progressives in each place to vote Green in exchange for far more effective NDP votes in ridings just next door.
6. Gord Miller has crushed his opposition in every public debate and has been visible on TVO and other mass media, and been tireless on the ground.
7. Miller was an Ontario PC controversially appointed by Mike Harris but reappointed by the Liberals, who he harshly criticized. His reputation as a non-partisan and fair civil servant effective on a range of issues is not in doubt, and absolutely no one believes he would not be a top notch MP.
8. The effect of riding level polls showing Liberals ahead is to remove the inhibition from voting Green, i.e. it shows Guelph is an ABC riding, thus there is no particular reason for progressives not to vote Green.
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
Just un-calling my Liberal prediction because of the extraordinary Green effort here, which is not just the strongest campaign in Ontario east of Toronto, but the only prospect to win anywhere, better even than Bruce Hyer's chance at re-election.
Riding level polls have too many problems and assumptions to trust, I do not in general believe them, especially not if the questions haven't been released. They tend to shift radically and be very different per pollster.
Gord Miller is beyond a star candidate. He was instrumental in Ontario banning SLAPP lawsuits and cost claims by developers against activists, and in the neonicotinoid ban that, as in Europe, protects bees and other pollinators. This is enough reason to want him in the House of Commons, but his long history of tough non-partisan advocacy of science is maybe even more important in an era when science itself has been under threat.
Greens are volunteering, donating and vote swapping into this riding in numbers like we have never seen in any election campaign in this country. There are more Greens pouring into Guelph than poured into Saanich Gulf Islands in 2011, if only because Toronto is bigger and closer than Victoria. Knowing that a star candidate's win can empower many more viable Green campaigns in the same region in the next election, which could be in as little as a year or two, the Greens are sucking it up and abandoning their local candidates to do everything they can for Miller.
Miller also has the potential to attract floor crossers into a much more serious Green caucus with regional representation actually elected in more than one place. Similar to Mary Lou Babineau's campaign in Fredericton, a few NDP or Liberal MPs could feel much more emboldened to stand against oh say Energy East, if they knew they had a Green caucus to actually cross to, and if they knew Greens had vote-swapped and actually voted for said NDP or Liberals in 2015.
When a national party puts its whole effort into one riding, the result is not predictable by riding level polls. May's polls showed her in a close race until the last moment in 2011, but she won by thousands of votes...
15 09 27 DSR
Environs poll 9/20/15 Lib 45%, Con 25%, NDP 18%, Green 12%.
15 09 20 prognosticator15
This will be a very close race, and to call it Liberal is at best premature. I see a three way competition between the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Greens. I see much of the NDP and other radical left vote shifting to the Greens due to NDP candidate's weakness combined with already established Green presence here, the strongest in Ontario west of Toronto. This vote is unlikely to shift elsewhere due to 'establishment' nature of a Liberal candidate and incompatibility of most of this vote with the Conservatives. In addition, the Greens who have a high profile candidate and benefit from a major national Green effort including Elizabeth May visits, will likely attract a portion of former 'soft Liberal' Valeriote vote. Kovacs is a much stronger Conservative candidate than Burke last time around and a former president of a Canadian Federation of Municipalities, she will at least keep the same vote as last time and likely increase it at the expense of the Liberals. Robocalls scandal has no impact on this election and may even backfire if other candidates bring it up directly. Riding-level polls like the one showing NDP lead mentioned below, are notoriously unreliable. Any of the three candidates can go one-two-three in this riding as I do not expect the Liberals to retain all of the Valeriote personality-based vote.
15 09 17 Jason
The Liberals are doing well enough in Ontario for them to retain Guelph.
Gord Miller under the Green banner will pose a strong challenge, but can't see them doing much better than Mike Schreiner's result last year.
15 09 14 JH
This will be a ridiculously close race, but I'm putting my bets on a Green win by a narrow margin.
The Greens are running a well-known, and well-respected candidate in Gord Miller, who will do lots for the party in terms of drawing support from 'non-traditional' Green voters. Many in this riding have already voted Green, and will be familiar with the party's policies. Look out for a huge region-wide push to get Miller elected in this riding.
Looking around Guelph its becoming clearer that Miller has already eked out a lead in terms of lawn signs and local earned media. The debates in this riding started last week, and Miller's experience as a media personality will make him popular with debate viewers, and will get him more earned media coverage. So far Elizabeth May is the only leader who has announced a trip into Guelph during the campaign.
Guelph was ground zero for the 'robocall' scandal, which will certainly hurt Gloria's brand. The Liberals have been chastised locally for their party's support of C-51 and commitment to whipping votes.
Further, I don't think this riding will get swept up in the NDP's strong regional numbers in Ontario - in 2011 they only increased their share of the vote by 0.19% and placed fourth in last year's provincial election.
Will be a nail-biter for sure!
15 09 09 Prairie Bumpkin
This race goes Liberal based on recommendations from strategic voting websites.
15 09 09 Nick M.
So we know the Cons are gonna perform worse than previous election for almost every riding in Ontario. Whether it be 5% or 15% Liberals are the incumbent, dont have to increase vote count. don't know why this is TCTC? Maybe their is some electoral district issues that I am not aware of? But liberal win unless people think NDP are competitive here?
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
Liberals hold on here, Kovach is a good candidate but her time to win was in 2008 not now as the CPC look to be on the way out.
15 09 07 Nick M.
All can guarantee is that wont go conservative. Don't know why Guelph is too close to call? Is there a strong NDP challenge? we can safely say Conservative can't improve from the last election. Don't know how this riding can't go Liberal?
15 09 06 seasaw
Half of my last posting didn't make it. Longfield will win this riding because, he's been visible. He was at Canada Day Celebrations ( Justin Trudeau was there ), Greek Food Festival, Ribfest and Riverfest, whereas other candidates have been invisible. Kovach will definately be second, NDP, Green, forget about. Seagram's made some inflamatory comments in the past, the kind that had a Liberal candidate out west resign, so he'll be hard pressed to get enough votes to get his deposit back. I know there was a poll conducted awhile back that showed NDP ahead, but what the ptevious poster didn't note was that the NDP had the lowest percentage of committed voters. The previous poster mentioned this riding can be swept with Orange Wave. Orange Wave was 4 and 1/2 years ago, with the campaign that NDP's ran so far and with the latest poll results, we're more likely going to experience Trudeaumania II rather than Orange Wave II.
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
Chris L, at the moment there isn't an Orange Wave. In fact, if you look at this week's polls from EKOS, Leger, etc. they show the Liberals beating the NDP in Ontario. One of this week's stories has been the decreasing NDP support outside Québec and the increasing Liberal numbers in Ontario.
The Globe & Mail just ran a story on it last night:
At the moment the 308 Prediction gives this riding a 93% chance of going Liberal: (September 4, 2015)
The riding poll you refer to was conducted TWO MONTHS AGO before the election began, before the Leader's Debate & before the recent NDP decrease in the polls. That poll was also conducted for CUPE -- an NDP-leaning organization.
While we should certainly keep our minds open to the possibility of change, there is no evidence yet of any major movement to the NDP here.
15 09 05 Kyle H
I'd be a lot more impressed by that poll if it wasn't a season old, Chris L.
But there is definitely a chance for the NDP here, make no doubt. The question will be what that winning coalition would look like - a strong Green campaign spells trouble for the NDP, especially if Liberal loyalties remain stubborn; it could be the best chance for the NDP is to gobble up fleeing Conservatives, who despite a good candidate in Kovach are more than likely going to drop. Do the NDP win with an appeal to moderate centre-rightists, the kind that defeated Farbridge last year? Who knows...
Safe bet to me is the Liberals and Mr. Longfield. For now, anyway.
15 09 03 Chris L
The Liberals have been filling up local papers with full page (or more) ads. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have been busy with low-blow attacks on the NDP candidate, Andrew Seagram. If this isn't a sign of desperation, I don't know what is. Perhaps they've also seen this poll (the only done in this riding lately) that shows the NDP with a 10 point lead. This is a riding that could get swept up in the orange wave.
15 08 25 seasaw
@Marco Ricci, the Conservatives don't have to be in a majority territory to win here. With a candidate like Gloria Kovach, they can win here even if they don't win the election. If any candidate is to benefit from Frank Valeriote's departure, it's Gloria
15 08 22 Marco Ricci
As I said in my first post in June, if this was a year in which the Conservatives were in Majority territory, I think they might have a shot with Gloria Kovach. But the Cons are still only in Minority territory, and have dropped lower in some polls since the start of the election.
It's hard to measure the aftermath of the robocalls scandal in this riding, but I would assume it has damaged the Conservatives. It would be surprising if the Conservatives were to win in Guelph during a year in which polls show the Conservatives are at risk of losing incumbents in many other ridings.
It's hard to measure how well Gord Miller will do for the Greens, but considering that previous Green campaigns have had trouble finishing higher than 3rd here, I don't see him doing better than previous Greens at this point.
I think the NDP does have the potential to be competitive this year, but it remains to be seen whether they can win, particularly after the controversial statements by Andrew Seagram that the Conservatives are going after. The Guelph Mercury reported that there is now a 2nd Conservative attack ad being run against the NDP. This could be a good sign for the NDP that they are competitive here, or it could drive NDP votes down.
The Liberals may not have Valeriote running again, but they won this riding under Brenda Chamberlain before Valeriote came along and are probably still the favourities here.
15 08 21 MTC
If you asked me 3 weeks ago I would have said the NDP were well positioned for a steal, but this time the local candidate factor is going to hurt them.
the Conservatives have attacked Seagram 3 times already, and this early on it means they have more ammunition. Seagram has said a lot of damaging things in his past and its going to hurt him as the campaign drags on.
The lost NDP support will undoubtedly strengthen the Liberals, I'm thinking they hold this seat for sure. No way Conservatives can pick up enough new votes to win it.
15 08 18 jeff316
'G-L-O-R-I-A glorrrrrrrrrrria' - were they singing that at Gord's nomination meeting? Gord Miller will do well - he'll pip the NDP to third, for sure - but his rep as an outsider and Harrisite will tarnish his appeal for many waffley Liberals, as well as core Greens that are increasingly worried about the party's focus on electability (Blair Wilson? Bruce Hyer?) rather than principle. But whatthehey. This is the best of both worlds for Gord - he gets to be highly visible, he gets to promote himself, and when he loses he'll have handed the race to his former party.
15 08 17 Adam Tarzwell
I am going to be bold here and predict Kovach takes this, even if the Conservatives fail to win government again. The main reasons I say this are, with Valeriote not running again, and fairly credible candidates running for all three so called progressive parties, the Liberal vote share will not be as high this time. Llyod Longfield is very well known as a the former head of the Chamber of Commerce, but isn't exactly dripping in personality. Gloria is a well known former Councillor, and is generally well liked and is more of a Red Tory than a Harperite. It will be close, but the right factors are there for Gloria to win with 30-33% of the vote. Yes, the robocalls still hang over the CPC in Guelph, but I don't see it being enough of a factor to push Gloria and the CPC much below the 30% range.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
NDP calls here seem to be propaganda. But so are the Liberal calls. Given the star candidate Gord Miller, the polling history and numbers aren't going to predict this one. Miller was one of the most respected public servants in Canada, one of the best known voices in Ontario, and was so invicible politically as Environment Commissioner that despite controversy over his early appointment (he ran for the PCs both provincially and federally) that the Liberals had to reappoint him. Twice.
Greens showed that they could run competitive races in byelections in south west Ontario, and also that they can win in a general election with enough focus on a particular riding. For 2015, Guelph is their best hope in the most populous region of the country, Southern Ontario. They'll pour everything they've got into it.
Conservatives who abandon hope of even a minority could prefer Miller, who with Frank de Jong represents a more pro-business 'blue Green' wing of the Greens, to either a Liberal or NDP backbencher who votes with his caucus. Miller showed extreme integrity and independence in public office and must be expected to be one of the most visible constituency MPs in the country, as Elizabeth May has been.
NDP members never give up their pipe dreams, but the people who vote for the NDP are quite different. Despite Miller's more centrist past he has been absolutely solid in standing up for activist rights (against SLAPP lawsuits for intance) and that has great appeal to the NDP base. The best chance to kill SLAPP suits in Canada for good is to vote for Gord Miller, who could get even a private members' bill to this effect passed, easily, as there would be no one seriously standing against it (just like Ontario).
Miller's high profile in Toronto and the proximity of the riding to it, and the vast number of people with ties between Toronto and Guelph, means a lot of phone calls and volunteering going back and forth along the 401. A good many people who were sure they were voting NDP or Liberal or even Conservative in August, will be casting a vote for Gord Miller in October.
All for different reasons, but... makes it too close to call right up to the end.
15 08 04 Docere
With Frank Valeriote leaving politics, Guelph seems to be undergoing a seachange. The NDP had been previously squeezed out by the Liberals and the strength of the Greens in Guelph; in 2008 'star candidate' Tom King bombed and came in fourth place. However as a university town with a civil libertarian streak, the 'liberally minded' appear to be shifting to the NDP in big numbers and the Greens seem to have fizzled out. According to an Environics poll, the NDP is at 38% in Guelph, well ahead of the Liberals and Tories (statistically tied at 28% and 27% respectively) and the Greens in single digits (7%). The Liberals could be see their Ontario representation limited to the GTA and the National Capital Region in this election.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Gloria Kovach, the Red Tory CPC candidate in Guelph, will eat away support from the centre. The Tories and Liberals will split and hand the riding to the NDP.
15 07 24 Expat
I see no one else posted this in time for the last website update, so I'll jump in with the riding news. Environics did a riding-specific poll of Guelph and the results were:
'Of decided voters, 38 per cent would vote NDP, 27 per cent Liberal, 28 per cent Conservative and seven per cent Green, according to the survey. The telephone survey of 597 residents of Guelph was conducted on July 13 and was weighted by age and gender.'
Very surprising numbers for this riding, so I won't make a prediction based on them, simply post for consideration and watch to see if anything else backs this up.
Reference: http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5746804-guelph-s-political-loyalties-may-be-shifting/
15 06 03 seasaw
Wow. Things just got a lot more interesting with the Green and CPC nominations. First off the Greens nominated Gord Miller, he is the former Ontario Environment Commisioner. He was a provincial Tory candidate in 1995 and a Federal Tory candidate in 1997. He also served two terms as Mike Harris's riding association president, was hired as commissioner by Harris. He did attend University here, was a campus Tory and is aquainted with many of them who still live here. He may take votes from Tories but it probably won't be large enough to put him over top, plus the Green ceiling is about 22%. Gloria Kovach, longtime city councillor, has been nominated for the CPC. She was unsuccessful in 2008, mainly because the local CPC had nominated someone else, but the CPC took a page out of the Liberal 1993 playbook and intalled her as the candidate, as a result, more than half the local CPC association, refused to help her, and when your own people don't help, you don't win. Also, it should be noted that in '93, up until 2 weeks prior to the election, it looked like the local PC candidate was going to win. The Liberal campaign had difficulties attracting volunteers, then came the commercial making fun of Chretien's face, and all of a sudden not only the Liberal support went up, volunteers brgan to show up and money started flowing in. Kovach will certainly get the sympathy vote, but it's not clear whether she'll attract any volunteers. Longfield'll have no problem getting organized, that's why the Liberals still have the edge.
15 06 03 Marco Ricci
If this was a year in which the Conservatives were in Majority territory, I think they might have a shot with Gloria Kovach. But the Cons are currently only in Minority territory, and are at risk of dropping even further. Plus they face the aftermath of the robocalls scandal in this riding.
The Liberals may not have Valeriote running again, but they have won this riding federally & provincially for many years now and are probably still the favourities here: 1) Liberal support is up in Ontario from 2011, 2) Neither the Greens nor the NDP really have enough support to win here. They each have pockets of support, but even in good years like 2011, the NDP hasn't been able to finish higher than 3rd here. Same thing for the Greens - even when they've run high-profile candidates, they find it tough to finish higher than 3rd.
15 06 01 LM
I might update my prediction seeing as Gloria Kovach former Guelph city councilor of 20 years is running. I find it will be hard to know who will win, her bullet points are that she has name recognition, former president of municipalities, and sat on the Guelph Police Services Board. Name recognition can go far.
As for Longfield, he might have a chance, but the issue is on both sides he is generally unknown unless one delves a bit deeper to see who he is.
Andrew Seagram, is the founder of the Guelph Comedy Festival, he pretty much IMO sits in the same boat as Longfield, name recognition might be an issue, plus the policies, but seeing how the Libs and Cons both supported C-51 it might be a surprise, we didn't expect the NDP to get to official opposition.
Former Ontario Environmental Commissioner Gord Miller running for the greens, he ran for environmental commissioner since 2000, started his career in Guelph, moving back, he says Guelph could be a strong Green riding, and the Greens did have a strong showing in the provincial election here.
So now my prediction is a tossup as I wish there was an option for 'Unsure' because Kovach is very well known in the city. I think this riding will be very tough to call for a accurate prediction now.
15 05 16 seasaw
Right now, it looks very good for the Liberals. I know LM, thinks that for some reason NDP can pull out a win here, the last two elections, they've barely gotten enough vote to cover their deposit and one of them was with a high profile candidate. I don't understand A.S 's logic about the National party 22 years ago, who managed to get 2% of the vote has to do with Valeriote's win the last time ? The truth is, left wing candidate rarely get over 20% in this riding and if you want to associate the Liberal wins here to the left, think again, Brenda Chamberlain, the MP for 15 years, was one of the most right wing MPs, Frank Valeriote belongs to the right wing of the Liberal Party and Liz Sandals, well she was a Tory until was asked to run for the Liberals. Valeriote increased his share of votes, the last time partly due to high profile endorsments from long time Tories. Right now, the Liberals have nominated the kind of candidate who can win, the CPC, they neither have a nomination date, nor anyone interested to run for them.
15 05 08 LM
With Frank Valeriote not running in the next election, I feel this seat might actually change to a different party, the new person running is Lloyd Longfield who was the previous president of the Guelph Chamber of Commerce, I am uncertain if he is going to win the seat due to his previous association with former mayor Karen Farbridge who alienated voters, and posted an anonymous attack ad against the current mayor during the municipal election. He might actually be a hard sell here.
15 04 04 A.S.
The 'agricultural' reference was more about the University of Guelph's Ontario Agricultural College genesis--and re the old 'rural SW Ontario Liberal fortress', that really was much more a provincial than federal phenomenon by the late c20 (i.e. 'Bob Nixon' farm/small-town Liberals vs the Big Blue Machine 'cosmopolitans'--by comparison, the heartland-vs-cosmopolitan red-blue dynamic's flipped these days). If anything, it's in how the UoG-spurred genius loci has neatly and rather organically morphed from 'agricultural' to 'environmental' that you can blame not only Guelph's solidifying Liberal foundation, but outsize support for anything from Mel Hurtig's National Party in 1993 to the Greens subsequently (there's a reason why the provincial Green leader ran here last year--and quite 'competitively' by such standards), as well as serious competing claims by the NDP for said prog-left vote. All of which *ought to* strike unite-the-left/strategic-vote enthusiasts as a game of chicken...except that federally, provincially, etc, this apparent 'disunity' has *yet* to topple the Guelph Grits. Then again, the 2011 federal result was the rarest of cases in the unlikeliest of years when 'unite the left under the Liberals' actually *worked* as intended (i.e. not only was the NDP flat from 2008, they won *no polls whatsoever*, and in the midst of the Orange Crush yet). And in Robocall Central, call that against-the-grain increased-share/margin victory karma. So, if Valeriote's retirement makes it more of a free-for-all this time (I mean, the Liberals have won consistently, but never with huge mandates--provincially, Liz Sandals has never budged from much above the 40% threshold), it's less and less likely with each passing year that it'll work on CPC's behalf. Almost like, feel free to vote 'strategically', but you don't *have* to, really...
15 03 30 MH
The Liberals managed to increase their vote here in 2011 and should have absolutely no difficulty holding the seat in 2015. One of the safer Ontario ridings for the Grits.
15 03 29 monkey
Being an urban riding, I don't think agricultural issues will have too big an impact never mind outside the Prairies the CWB is a non-issue and the ridings where it is an issue, the Tories won by such massive margins any fallout won't make a difference. Rather like any university town, the Tories policy on science and research probably won't go over well never mind the two main groups which are students who want lower tuition and professors and administrators who want more funding for research both have every incentive not to vote Tory.
15 03 26 D.M.
Easy Liberal win. They actually increased their vote share here in 2011 despite the worst campaign in their history, and I think robocall will be a black mark on the CPC campaign.
I have to laugh at an earlier comment calling this an agricultural riding and bastion of Southwestern farmers Liberal support. This is an urban riding with maybe a handful of rural voters on the extreme fringes. This is a university and public sector town, with some commuters into the GTA perfect Liberal demo's.
15 03 23 ML
I'm surprised this is TCTC. The Liberals miraculously pulled off a win in Guelph despite their 2011 national implosion. With their poll numbers much higher in 2015 I can't imagine Guelph suddenly switching teams.
15 03 22 Fairview Resident
Frank Valeriote narrowly held this riding for the Liberals when he first ran in 2008. While the Liberals lost more than half their Ontario seats in 2011, he actually increased his margin by over 4,000 votes due to massive backlash over dirty vote suppression tactics by his opponent. Valeriote isn't running again, but the Liberals have closed the 20 point gap in Ontario. Will the Tories regain enough of a lead to overcome both the natural Liberal tilt of the riding as well as any residual backlash from the huge number of voters who were angry about vote suppression tactics? It seems unlikely at this point.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Guelph, an agricultural university town, is maybe the last bastion of that old rural southwestern Ontario Liberal fortress. Farmers too smart to be fooled into thinking that losing the Wheat Board would help sell the wheat. Paying attention to what university professors studied and said.
You know. What Canadian agriculture used to be like. When it paid.

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