Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:52:49

Constituency Profile


Bory, Leslie

Bylsma, Dave

Ettinger, Wayne

Finley, Diane

Harris, John

Mouland, Joan

Wakeford, Dustin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4350.86%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (228/228 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Diane Finley


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15 10 19
This will be an easy CPC victory... I'm not sure how this can be considered vulnerable. Visited the riding last week and a quick analysis of signage throughout the riding clearly indicates no change here. Not to mention poor performance of Grit candidate in local debates- zero understanding of agriculture makes her a less than ideal choice.
15 10 16 Dr. Bear
I too am echoing the call that this riding should not be listed for the conservatives. The liberals are on a roll and this is one of the closest rural races. While I am not ready to give it to the liberals, neither am I ready to say it goes conservative.
15 10 16 DSR
In the last few days riding polls have suggested that the Cons are in TCTC races in Perth-Wellington and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. This SW Ontario riding is even more vulnerable than either of those and I think the Libs are now favoured.
15 10 15 Spx
Numbers have moved quite a lot over the last couple of days and moved this one out of the TCTC coloumn. I think I am going to make my final call here, it's going to be a Liberal gain.
15 10 15 JC
At this point we are looking at a wave election in Ontario, very few Tory incumbents are safe and Diane Finley is no exception, the liberals are polling in mid to high 40's, and the conservatives around 28-30%, they are polling at 1993 Chrétien sweep levels and I can't see Finley winning.
15 10 15 Brian L
This riding needs to move to TCTC.
All of the riding predictions for this riding lean to the Liberals. 308, election-atlas.com, vox-pox (The Signal), Too Close to Call all have predictions for the Liberals.
An even bigger indicator that Diane Finley is in trouble is the fact that Stephen Harper visited the ridings of Brantford-Brant and Haldimand-Norfolk yesterday. If the Conservatives were not in trouble in these ridings, Harper wouldn't have been anywhere near them.
15 10 12 Spx
I think this riding should move in the TCTC column. At this point with the strong Liberal numbers in Ontario a couple of ridings outside the GTA area are now close to flipping over, Haldimand-Norfolk being one of them.
15 09 22 R.O.
Haldimand Norfolk is a fairly rural riding with Simcoe one of the larger towns. Diane Finlay has been mp since 2004 and one of the higher profile conservatives from southwestern Ontario. The liberal candidates she previously beat former mp Bob Speller and Eric Hoskins were also fairly high profile in the riding. New liberal candidate Joan Mouland's political resume isn't as big although she is Bob Spellers wife according to her website .overall I'd be surprised if riding didn't stick with incumbent .
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Both threehundredeight as LISPOP are suggesting that this riding is competitive. While I say it's still the Conservative's to lose, they seem to be in a free fall at the moment. If that is the case, rural ridings will start to flip.
15 09 08 Monkey Cheese
TN, it looks like this riding may already be flipping. Ontario is moving towards the Liberals and away from the Conservatives. The Tories are in third place federally. 308 is also now calling HN for the Liberals (as of September 8), with 50%. I'm not ready to call this one for anybody yet, but I think due to recent polling numbers, Election Prediction Project would be wise to stop with the PermaCon predictions for many Ontario ridings. The Tories do have the advantage, but if they keep on losing support like this, then even ridings like this one are competitive.
15 09 06 TN
This one's not your average rural Ontario riding, it was the only one in the region where the Liberals kept second in the 2011 washout. Aside from the major national campaign changes, lots of concern regarding trade issues with farmers, as well as a large population change with new subdivisions (esp. in Caledonia and Port Dover).
As others have noted, Finley tends to keep a very low, borderline invisible profile for a Minister, much less than the more popular MPP Toby Barrett. NDP has a better candidate than 2011, but seems to be fairly invisible early on. Liberal candidate Mouland is a prominent local lawyer, also the wife of former MP Bob Speller.
If the Liberals start inching toward and above the 40 percent mark in Ontario, this will probably be the one of the first seats outside the major urban areas to flip, as it was in 1988.
15 08 30 A.S.
Diane Finley's a conundrum--H-N's been hers for the keeping since 2004, she's been in cabinet as well as half of a heavy-hitting Conservative power couple, yet provincial 'Toby Barrett populism' has always rendered her remote and wan by comparison. And it doesn't help that she's repeatedly faced ex-MP/cabmin Bob Speller (and now, his wife) as Grit opponent--and the one time she *didn't* face a member of the Speller household (2008) she faced *both* overachieving future MPP Eric Hoskins *and* a 10% independent run from Caledonia-crisis-populist Gary McHale (by comparison, Toby Barrett had the McHale demo down cold). One unusual upsy-downsy tidbit about H-N in 2011: it was the only Con/PC seat in Ontario where the NDP came third behind the Grits *federally* (thank Speller for that), but second ahead of the Grits *provincially*. While the stats would still seem to generally favour Finley now, given how the election's going I wouldn't be surprised if, in the event that she survives, she may take a page from fellow Con power-couple widow Christine Elliott and opt for early retirement...
15 08 15 seasaw
I wouldn't quit call this for the Conservatives yet. Sure they won by 30% the last time, but there's a chance that Finlay's support can drop by 12% and the Liberals can pick most of it and if NDP vote collapses ( good chance of that ), then this will be a riding in play.
15 03 29 monkey
Unlike Toby Barrett provincially who is quite popular, Diane Finley is a liability, but still this is a fairly rural riding and barring a Tory meltdown, they should hold this even though I suspect things will tighten up a bit.
15 03 29 monkey
Unlike Toby Barrett provincially who is quite popular, Diane Barrett is a liability, but still this is a fairly rural riding and barring a Tory meltdown, they should hold this even though I suspect things will tighten up a bit.
15 03 28 D.M.
Despite Diane Finley having some troubles( a small ethics issue amongst other things). This riding is very Conservative by Ontario standards, in the last election the CPC also had the burden of the Caledonia native standoff which has been resolved to some extent.
Toby Barrett also wins this very easily for the Ontario PC's and demo's don't get much better for the Conservatives in Ontario than this riding as their are only very small towns to complete rural areas here.
Easy CPC hold.

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