Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:52:55

Constituency Profile


Creces, Gerard

Lobb, Ben

Splettstoesser, Jutta

Thompson, Allan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2540.48%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (230/230 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ben Lobb


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15 10 16 DMcB
This riding is one where the last election's results are not very relevant. The liberal campaign both local and national was awful and the local candidate was weak. The NDP clearly had the best candidate but no strong history in the area. This time the Liberal candidate is very strong, the NDP candidate is not resonating and the Con incumbent's main strength is that he is a nice fellow although ineffective. As a long time politics watcher in the area and a Liberal I still think the incumbent will hold but won't be completely surprised if the Liberal wins.
15 10 13 MM
With Trudeau making a campaign stop in Stratford (although its Perth-Wellington, it also involves neighbouring ridings like Huron-Bruce), obviously this riding is in play, hence it should be changed to TCTC at this time.
15 10 11 M
I think that with the Liberals now pulling ahead significantly in Ontario, this is a riding that should be changed to TCTC at the moment. This is a two way battle between the Liberal and the Conservative with the NDP and Greens out of it. Many people in this riding, like many other Canadians want change, which as a result puts this riding in play. If the Liberals keep gaining support, this may very well end up being a Liberal steal.
15 09 30 R.O.
This riding is fairly incumbent friendly when compared to others . A lot of rural ridings are often like this and have long serving mp's. it also re-elected its mpp and stayed conservative during provincial election. Ben Lobb has done well here and this is type of rural riding conservatives should be able to hold onto .
15 08 03 A.S.
There definitely needs to be some acknowledgment of how Huron-Bruce has, however incompletely, become a litmus of NDP potential in Rural Ontario--definitely clear from previous EPP go-arounds; but borne out by Grant Robertson's impressive quarter of the vote in 2011 (hey, in that year vs HarperCons in this neck of the woods you can only go so far). Though it may be a little different this year (albeit not necessarily for ill) without a standard-bearer surnamed 'Robertson' or 'Johnstone' or Klopp'--but don't count out *anyone*, really, even the Liberals (if not for the goal, at least for the assist). Maybe the big lesson of those quixotic past claims on behalf of the NDP--and borne out by Mulcair's pre-election tour of SW Ontario--is that despite the current Con advantage or the past nature of Liberal Paul Steckle, there's more ways to the ballot-box heart of a Huron-Bruce type of riding than blowing the social-conservative dog whistle or what have you. (Trust me. There are.)
15 04 15 Bruce County Bumpkin
I think this riding is up for grabs and may even be a Liberal steal.
Allan Thompson has been working this riding since he became the Liberal candidate last year. He has been highly visible and approachable at events, which is the polar opposite of his main rival.
Ben Lobb has been largely unheard and unseen as an MP. I don't think he will steal any votes outside of the devoted Conservative voters in this riding, which is not as plentiful as in other rural ridings. Yes, Mr. Lobb won a convincing victory in 2011, but that was largely due to an unravelling local Liberal campaign, as well as a poor federal campaign. I don't see that happening this time around and I think Thompson has a very real chance to win this riding.
15 03 29 monkey
Like the rest of rural Ontario, this is a solidly Conservative riding. The Liberals only held onto this riding in 2004 and 2006 because Paul Steckle was a popular MP and was also quite right wing on social issues too.
15 03 28 D.M.
Marginally less Conservative than some other rural ridings in Ontario, it took a little longer for the Federal and Provincial Tories to snatch this from Liberal hands.
Maybe a riding where the LPC stands at least a shot in the dark chance but should be retained by the CPC, the Libs don't seem to be challenging much for rural ridings especially outside of the Atlantic and this seems to be the kind of seat that will be sacrificed in order to appeal to Metropolitan/Quebec voters.
CPC hold.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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