Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Kingston and the Islands

Prediction Changed
2015-09-07 22:38:47

Constituency Profile


Beals, Daniel

Brooke, Andy

Gerretsen, Mark

McAllister, Luke

Townend, Nathan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Kingston and the Islands
   (245/245 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ted Hsu


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15 10 15 Docere
Nope, Kingston will not be interesting. Easy Liberal hold.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
RP, the NDP is in 3rd place in Ontario and 3rd place Nationally, so I don't see them as having the momentum to win this riding this year. Beals is a decent candidate for the NDP, but he most likely needs an Orange Wave to carry him over, and that isn't happening so far.
15 09 29 Kyle H
Ah yes, the perennial 'NDP can totally win this' posts for Kingston and the Islands. It failed to their way, despite multiple assurances that it would, in 2014, both 2011 races, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2004, even 2000! The candidate is good, the time is now, the local polling is great, the leader is visiting - heard it all before, and I think everyone here remains as unconvinced as before.
Kingston is an uber-friendly Liberal riding, and that hasn't changed in a decade despite multiple chances for it to do so. I don't know about the quality of Gerretsen as a candidate - I'm not a local, so I have no idea how well or poorly his time as mayor goes over on the populace - but even if he was the worst possible they could find, he still has a better chance to win than the NDP do. Maybe if the NDP were leading in Ontario, maybe if Mulcair was a little more appealing to the soft left base this riding's progressives seem to like, and maybe if the NDP had organizational strength here worth commenting on (unlike the Liberals, in which Kingston and the Islands has one of the strongest local associations in the country) - this could go orange. This election, at this point? Not a chance.
15 09 24 RP
Believe it or not, local polling has the NDP and the Liberals neck in neck for Kingston; it's a fight between Beals and Gerretsen. There are likely a couple of reasons for this. First, Beals has kicked around for awhile and is campaigning well; on CBC he sounded like a statesman who already held the riding. He's articulate and focusing on his policies. Second, Gerretsen is a downgrade from Hsu. People liked the personable Hsu; but alot of residents have a bone to pick with Gerretsen. He contributed to a bumpy council, and building consensus was never his strong point. Beals referenced this at the debate with his not too subtle dig at Gerretsen, who has since left his mayoral title to run federally: 'Council runs much more smoothly now, I'm not sure why that is.' Third, Throw in Gerretsen'spenchant for getting all riled up and ranting (e.g., I have in mind his behaviour at the Queen's debate when a student asked his opinion on Feminism) he has not been very impressive in presenting himself, and, as a result, seems to be sticking to reading his talking points (e.g.,last nights local candidates debate). But nervousness seems to be overtaking what are likely his advisors suggestions to play it nice. Finaly, Gerretsen's privleged position as part of an entrenched dynasty (his dad as mpp, he as mayor, hand-selected by Trudeau, etc.) doesn't seem to be helping him at all. Beal's NDP will likely take it.
15 09 21 M K
I agree with Author. 2011 was the best chance the Tories had at this seat since Flora; Ignatieff was an unpopular leader, Hsu was an unknown (though turned out to be a well-respected MP), and Gordon was a known local businessperson (Gordon's Estate auctions). Now with an unknown Brooke, and a well-known Liberal candidate in Mark Gerretsen, the window has been closed.
Add in the riding boundary changes, and the Conservatives are likely to be 3rd in Kingston, with the NDP in 2nd, as in the Provincial election last year.
15 09 17 Author
it's worth noting due to boundary changes and the Tories sinking in the province, I suspect Brooke will do less well than in 2011. If this riding was going to go Conservative, it would have been then.
15 09 08 Teddy Boragina
Author is right. What he misses is that should the Liberals drop in the polls again, the NDP at 37% in Ontario is not out of the question, especially with more and more voters piling up against Harper.
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
With the NDP dropping in support in Ontario and the Liberals rising, this riding will probably remain Liberal, as it did during last year's provincial election, when there was also a strong challenge from the NDP.
I don't know whether Gerretsen is considered an 'upgrade' or a 'downgrade' as a previous poster discussed, but as someone with political experience & name recognition and organization, he is probably the strongest opposition option here for non-Conservative voters.
This riding is also currently projected by 308 as a 90% chance of going Liberal:
I think the only reason this riding was changed to TCTC was because of the questionable riding poll that was conducted here early in the Summer before the election even started. (Same thing happened in Guelph). A lot has changed since then (eg. Liberal support has risen, NDP support has dropped).
15 09 05 Author
This riding has gone Liberals since 1988. It would take the NDP polling at 37% for Kingston to swing. Unfortunately, Gerretsen will likely take it, which is a shame because, despite being a city councilor and mayor, he doesn't seem that bright or capable.
15 09 03 jeff316
No one, no one, absolutely no one with any insight into Kingston would consider Mark Gerretsen an upgrade to Ted Hsu. Ted is widely respected by all parties and well recognized for many accomplishments outside of the political field. Mark Gerretsen is the son of the former MPP, one term councillor, one term mayor, and his non-political experience consists of managing his family's rental apartments. Gerretsen will win - you don't lose a riding in which you have 1300 paid, voting party members. But he's a significant downgrade from Hsu, and very much bucks the trend of Kingston electing accomplished MPs that are well-respected across partisan lines.
15 09 02 R.O.
This one is a tough call as its been a close riding, current liberal mp Ted Hsu is not seeking re-election so its an open riding once again as he had only been mp for 1 term. However the new liberal candidate Mark Gerretsen might be an upgrade and was mayor of Kingston and son of a former mpp. There is still a strong conservative and ndp base in this riding . conservatives once again have a new candidate Andy Brooke . the ndp have some potential in the riding but have yet to do better than 3rd going back to 2004 election. There Is still a lot of campaign left and this one will become clearer as it nears end.
15 09 02 jeff316
Not that it was ever in doubt in Kingston, but Trudeau's deficit plan allows well-read university voters to conveniently ignore any hesitancy they had with the Liberals re: C51.
15 08 23 Recovering political junkie
This is a University town, but is more of a Right of Centre University culture. Atleast it was when I was a student here 10 years ago. So An NDP breakthrough here would be a miracle. This will be a healthy 3 way race, but the Conservatives won't win. Attitudes don't change fast in Eastern Ontario, but it was once a safe Con seat pre 1993.
15 08 14 jeff316
'There is something about Mary(Rita)' would be the title of the Kingston NDP's movie. She appealed across the Limestone City's deeper-than-you-think class divisions and could have very well carried Kingston against such a plebeain nominee as Mark Gerretsen. Dan Beals is a fine fellow and well-meaning man, respected sure, but the NDP will never carry patrician, old-money Kingston with such a common candidate that really appeals to no-one. Gerretsen's name recognition and Trudeau's appeal in Kingston will the Liberals win this easily, regardless of national trends.
15 08 14 SS
This is a hard one.
This is a university town. C-51 has really hurt a lot of people here. The NDP are definitely going to make gains.
Aside from that, also note that EKOS (who, it's important to note, were the most accurate pollster in the Ontario election last year), has the NDP with a huge lead (11 points!) among university-educated people. Relative to Canadians as a whole, NDP support is 7 points higher.
This means the NDP increase is more powerful in Kingston than elsewhere. Keep in mind the students are all here this time, it's an October election.
This one will probably still be a Liberal hold but the NDP have enough of a shot that it's way too close to call.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
Monkey Cheese, it is possible that Kingston is TCTC. Afterall, not long ago the Conservatives placed a strong 2nd to the Liberals, so it's possible that the NDP could be the party to rival the Liberals this time around.
One thing that we all need to keep in mind over the next 2 months is that we are in a long election period, with a lot of changing fortunes for all the parties.
Having said that, Environics has sometimes had a pro-NDP bias in the past, so it is possible that the numbers are somewhat inflated here, and the poll was also asking questions about unpopular provincial Liberal policies such as the Hydro controversy, so that may have distorted the Federal numbers a bit.
It's also possible that the Liberal numbers have gone up since this poll was conducted since Justin Trudeau has had a strong start to the Election Campaign and got good reviews for the Leader's Debate.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
M.K has pointed out the problems with that specific riding poll and the more reliable polling aggregate, Threehundredeight, still shows the Liberals leading here by a wide margin. The Liberals chose wisely when they nominated a Gerretsen, who will handily win this riding. This should not be TCTC.
15 08 06 M K
Despite the riding poll linked by Expat, I think it's premature to move this to the TCTC column. Reading the link, the poll was buried in an IVR poll concerning opinion on Wynne's Ontario Liberal sale of Hydro One and which party one would vote for provincially, with party choice federally as a 'bonus question' of sorts. I could see this leading an anti-Liberal response that might not apply accurately federally, and there's no indication that candidate names (Beals, Gerretsen, etc.) were mentioned.
Daniel Beals (NDP) has made a good effort with attendance at community events, quotes in the Whig, signs ready to go on Day 1, but it's an uphill battle in a Liberal city that has before and is still more likely to vote for the name Gerretsen (Lib). With 70+ days to go, of course, if any party has the opportunity to make inroads it is the NDP; I just don't believe that's what's happened here.
15 08 04 MTC
Recent local polls in Guelph and Kingston showed the NDP surging. Combine that with a downward trend in overall Liberal support and this riding swings NDP.
The liberals maintained power here only through strategic voting which causes many NDP supports to vote Liberal. I lived in Kingston for a long time, and I can tell you if the strategic liberal vote is lost Kingston falls to the NDP.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
Kingston is TCTC? Seriously? All the polling aggregates, including 308, are indicating that this will be a safe Liberal seat in every sense of the word. Their polling numbers are quite strong here and their candidate is the former mayor, and son of a popular mayor and MPP. The NDP will do better here than before, but nowhere near enough to take down this Liberal stronghold.
15 08 04 Docere
Time to update this one. #ABC51 makes the very good point about the civil libertarian streak of university towns; C-51 could really hurt the Liberals in Kingston. An Environics poll shows the NDP and Liberals in a statistical tie in the riding. Certainly, with Ted Hsu leaving politics and making this an open seat and the Mulcair NDP's appeal to the 'liberally minded', this is a riding to watch.
15 08 02 Expat
Perhaps surprisingly (Kingston has been Liberal since 1988), this riding is TCTC!
We have the rare fortune of getting a riding-specific poll for Kingston, from a major pollster. Environics Research Group poll has this currently going NDP by a small margin. However, it will be a long (so long!) campaign, so this is absolutely too close to call for now.
Reference: http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=914
15 07 06 Stevo
Seasaw, I would have had it the other way around re: Guelph/Kingston. Looking at location and student base as two variables among many - the former closer to GTA leftism, the latter surrounded by ultra-conservative rural Eastern Ontario, and the former harbouring a lefty/greeny university while the latter a university with a wealthier, more business-oriented student body - Kingston would appear to easily be the more Conservative-friendly. Guelph just feels more like a suburb whereas Kingston feels like a small town. This election however will be all about saving the Conservative family china, so don't expect them to invest a lot of resources here.
15 06 06 A.S.
This had all the markings of a Liberal sure-hold--Hsu surviving 2011, Gerretsen being even more of a star than Hsu--but now it's showing signs of a potential, not to mention archetypal, C-51 casualty in the making; and it certainly doesn't help that the ONDP has firmed its position as a second-place provincial force hereabouts, so the Grits can't pretend 'the Liberals and *only* the Liberals' in Kingston' anymore (imagine if Mary Rita Holland ran *federally*). Oh, and re seasaw's claim that Kingston and Guelph aren't alike at all--which seems rather creatively/clumsily based upon Guelph's pattern of electing so-called blue/ex-PC Liberals or the NDP failing to enjoy an Orange Crush boost in 2011--well, the Libs and Cons are sitting on a narrower margin in Kingston than they are in Guelph, so something about his claim smells of vested interest. And on behalf of the robocalls riding, yet...
15 05 27 seasaw
Unlike what a couple of the previous posters have said, this riding's not like Guelph at all. You see, CPC can pick up Guelph if they: 1. get organized and stop their infighting, 2. they recruit the right candidate and 3. if it's the right year for them.
Here, the CPC can recruit Mother Theresa and get well organized and they still won't win. I believe Mr. Gerretsen will take this by a very wide margin.
15 05 17 #ABC51
The LibDem-leaning university towns that you refer to have a very socially liberal and civil libertarian electorate that had no taste for the soft authoritarianism of Tony Blair and New Labour. With Justin Trudeau and the C-51 Brigade leading the Liberals down this dark path, we may very well see some surprises in places like Kingston and Guelph.
15 04 26 Docere
Kingston and Guelph are Ontario's equivalent of Lib Dem university towns in the UK (at least until the Cameron-Clegg coalition). Kingston stayed Liberal by a quite comfortable margin in the 2011 disaster. The Red Toryism represented by Flora MacDonald found a new home in the Liberal Party long ago. At this point, Kingston would go NDP before it would go Conservative.
15 03 28 money
Like many university towns it is a Liberal island in a Conservative sea. Otherwise the Conservatives may win big in the neighbouring ridings, but that won't spillover into this one.
15 03 26 M K
Gerretsen is a former mayor with name recognition, and you don't even need name recognition to win as a Liberal in Kingston.
The new boundaries of the riding, removing the mostly rural parts north of the 401, seal this as one of the safest Liberal incumbencies out there.
15 03 25 Stevo
Eastern Ontario's answer to Guelph. Easy Liberal hold in a city that was once as Red Tory as they come.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal based on the 2011 hold and this time a popular leader in Ontario. Also on the fact that my personal dealings with the NDP in this riding suggest they are deeply deluded and so sure they can win it that they actively attempt to censor any discussion of vote swapping among NDP voters.
This is how you alienate your base that wants Harper out. The NDP votes in this riding, swapped out and distributed among close NDP-versus-Liberal ridings across the country, would be pretty formidable and guarantee Mulcair a seat at the table. Running another third place campaign here? Not so much.
Enough NDPers will see sense and either swap (which wins other NDP seats) or just tactically vote Liberal (which doesn't win other NDP seats, and depresses the NDP vote total nationwide). We'll see who has the brains to demand something for their vote, but in any case, it'll be a Liberal MP going from K&I to Ottawa.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
When things looks absolutely dire for the Liberals in 2011, this riding was safely held with a new candidate. Now that candidate is not running again and the new Liberal standard bearer is Kingston's former mayor. His father was also mayor and long time Liberal MPP. Strong family legacy in a safe Liberal seat. The other parties will be looking elsewhere for gains and largely ignore Kingston.

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