Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

London West

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:40:38

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Jacques Y.

Holder, Ed

Lascaris, Dimitri

Lewis, Michael

Rowlinson, Matthew

Young, Kate

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 590.10%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   London West
   (249/249 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Ed Holder


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15 10 13 SC
Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting finds the Liberals with a pretty decent lead: 42 LPC, 33 CPC, 19 NDP among decided voters; 37 LPC, 30 CPC, 17 NDP among all voters (12% undecided). This is traditional Liberal turf, so I'd say they take this.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Movement to the LPC in Ontario tips this one to red.
15 10 14 JC
Ed Holder is finished, Kate Young is going to Ottawa, Mainstreet Research poll shows
42-Liberal Party
33-Conservative Party
15 10 12 Joe M
With Ed not attending most of the debates or all candidates meetings along with the trend in favour of Liberals - people will focus their vote for Kate Young to win this riding without a doubt.
15 10 11 prognosticator15
I am ready to call this riding for Conservatives.
First, this is a three way race, all riding level polls should be disregarded for the many problems they have. A two way race was clear here back 10-20 years ago when Sue Barnes was free riding at first on Jean Chretien coattails until defeated by Ed Holder in 2008. This time is now over. Since NDP split progressivist vote nearly perfectly in half in 2011 (I even thought back then they had a fair chance of winning in spite of Ed Holder dominance), lots of changes have happened, most important establishing NDP presence at provincial level as the number one anti-Tory party in this riding. The NDP network is strong and the candidate, Rowlinson, is a part of the same Peggy Sattler (provincial MPP) and her professor husband network of leftist academics and political operators skilled at bringing supporters to the polls. He has advertised himself no less well than a Liberal candidate Kate Young and presents a more competent image. The latter, although known from her past TV work reading the news, is not quite a pin-up (to put it bluntly) and struggles to create an image of a competent politician. I liked the way Cons incumbent Ed Holder forced her in a radio debate to contradict her party leader Trudeau's position on local General Dynamics military contract for Saudi Arabia - Trudeau opposes this popular job-rich contract, supposedly on 'human rights' grounds. Taking position different from her leader is not a sign of strength for a candidate, typically shows a big problem. Overall, Young might have been the weakest in debates out of all FOUR major parties and runs a weak campaign (in spite of a fair bit of supporters' private signage on lawns). She runs, for example ads on addressing 'climate change' at a decisive campaign moment - such ads only appeal to Liberal and Green base supporters (a few thousand, not enough to win) and remind others of the heavy costs involved and of incompetent Wynne provincial government with its crony 'green' ventures strongly promoted by its beneficiaries such as former Liberal minister Gordon McBean whom she advertises as a supporter without disclosing his Liberal connections. I sometimes have a feel her campaign makes certain anyone who even very hesitantly backs Cons will definitely come to vote against her. Of course, incompetence and poor understanding of issues does not always prevent a win (remember Quebec NDP candidates in 2011 election, many running again for re-election now?), but faced with a strong Cons incumbent and a strong NDP that prefers to concentrate on bread and butter issues (including Trans-Pacific Partnership impact where the Liberals fail to take any clear stance at all), she is in a position of weakness. Add to this a much more stable Cons vote in places like London and Waterloo as compared to Toronto where Liberals fight for the votes of PM Harper's 2011 fairweather friends from recent immigrants and other groups, and one would not put too much value in provincial polling numbers (arguably, still a bit more reliable than riding level polls) in places outside Toronto. Trudeau's recent visit to London had barely any impact.
Another factor no one writes about is a strong Green candidate who is likely to have an impact way greater than any other Green in Southwestern Ontario west of Guelph, a bombastic left ideologue lawyer, Dimitri Lascaris specializing on destroying resource companies for any or no reason through lawsuits. He is quite well known in the community and I am surprised by the number of support signs he managed to attract. His populism against big 'polluters' and corporate interests, for climate protection, 'human rights' (so called) and such attracts many of the more ideologically inclined progressives, and I expect it to hurt the NDP and the Liberals. Unless, of course, he withdraws at the last moment, but he has already done much damage by attacking all three parties as not being too different from one another. I cannot imagine him and his far left position winning this time, but his impact is felt.
In contrast to the Liberals, Ed Holder's campaign is competent, raises correct issues with broad appeal to attract all supporters to vote (ex. scare of incompetent Trudeau, of Liberal payroll tax hikes, emphasis on job creation, plus selected local issues like General Dynamics), and his competence contrasts that of his Liberal opponent. He goes to the right debates such as on local radio, and skips the partisan interest-group run events where he has nothing to gain (ex. Huron College NDP professor/progressives' run supposedly objective debate). Cons have learned from the past that going to debates where all are against one only makes sense in relatively neutral settings - this is to answer a post below claiming skipping debates hurts Holder, while in fact quite the opposite is the case, throughout Canada - it is a sign of good campaign expertise (reminds me of Chretien Liberals skipping debates in the past organized by social conservative and other non-Liberal groups).
In addition, Cons vote of 2011 is not running away - this is important to keep in mind. It is not that Cons are looking for a new alternative. Quite the contrary, commitment is very strong to prevent progressives from ruining finances and such, from Cons perspective, at least. Just bringing the same vote back to the polls will assure Ed Holder's victory. Liberals' campaign issues and visible weakness of a local candidate (could they find a better one?) makes NDP the strongest Cons opponent this time, whatever the polls say. Alas, campaign dynamics and issues are different from last year's provincial race (not to mention the fact Cons candidate was a Muslim then - a matter of bias for some), and although I do not expect Holder to win as solidly as last time, with full voter mobilization, he should hold the seat against NDP strength spilling over from the neighboring London-Fanshawe riding, as well as against any spillover of Liberal support from Toronto area.
All in all, even ABC voter appeal is not likely to help - many leftists are not ABCs. It is competitive, but only a big dent in Holder support will bring this seat to the NDP or the Liberals. As I do not see Cons vote softening in favour of other parties - quite the contrary, in fact, the gap between the Cons and the rest is growing - I think Holder will be back in Ottawa.
15 10 08 Dr. Bear
Clarification William.
The polling data I am referring to is the current (current as of a few days ago) standings the federal Liberals have in the province of Ontario. I am not making any reference to the 2014 provincial election. Rereading my earlier post, I can understand the confusion.
15 10 07 DSR
Environics poll (15/10/4) Con 38%, Lib 37%, NDP 20%, Green 5%
15 10 06 Jeff S
TCTC with this Environics poll.
15 10 05 William
Correcting Dr. Bear.
The NDP won London West is the most recent Provincial election (2014) with more than 40% of the vote. The Liberals came third.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
If the provincial numbers for the Liberals hold (44%), then they will win this riding easily. Two weeks in politics is an eternity though....
15 09 29 Monkey Cheese
This is going to be a close one. 308 is currently showing this as a very narrow Conservative hold, but previously showed it as a Liberal gain. I'd like to see some credible riding polls (no Mainstreet and no Environics) give us a clearer picture of what's actually going on here. Ed Holder is one of the better ones the Conservatives have to offer, but he's been noticeably absent from campaign events and debates. The Liberals have a strong candidate in Kate Young. It won't be the NDP who wins here, especially with them back in third place in recent polls. TCTC until we get a credible riding poll or two.
15 09 22 The Jackal
Ed Holder will win this time the same wat as last. Coming up the middle via a Liberal-NDP vote split.
15 09 20 Brian L
This riding should be a toss-up, but between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The NDP aren't going to do as well here as they did provincially. Peggy Sattler was the accidental winner when she won her first election in a by-election. The voters were mad at Dalton McGuinty and the Conservative candidate who should have won, screwed up royally (he was the epitome of Murphy's law). Sattler moved up the middle and managed to keep the provincial riding in the last provincial election.
While Ed Holder is relatively popular locally, he has been a dud as a junior cabinet minister. But then, most of Harper's cabinet ministers don't really get to run their departments anyway. That could affect him.
Kate Young is a popular former televeision newscaseter who, like Holder, has been involved in local charities. She is personable and hard working and is well known by most of London West's population (the riding probably has the most stable population of all the London ridings).
The NDP candidate, while possibly benefiting from Sattler's crew, is a non-starter in this campaign.
It is either Holder or Young this time around and if the polls don't break for one party or the other, the prediction for this riding may not made until the day before the election.
15 09 17 Author
this is going to be one two watch. London-West tends to trend slightly more conservative than London North Centre, but it elected an NDPer provincially. With the Liberals slightly ahead right now, it'll likely swing that way, but this will be a close one, especially with a well-known Conservative incumbent.
15 09 14 Jason Brown
If you had asked me when the election began who was going to win this riding, I would have said Ed Holder. I agree with others on this site that Holder is a likeable fellow, and it's always nice to have a government minister in your backyard. But, as the campaign has progressed, I've become convinced that the Liberals may win this riding for a few reasons. First, I think Kate Young's team is putting far more effort into this riding than Ed Holder's. There are massive Kate Young signs on PEOPLE'S FRONT LAWNS, and she has some big ad boards throughout the riding. Second, the Liberals are polling better than expected across the country as Trudeau is performing better than expected.
15 09 11 Observer
While Holder (former insurance salesman) is a likable fellow, as Minister of State for Science, has done absolutely nothing for Western University which is a research university. Like all other MPs he is a loyal follower and votes the way he is told. This is a tough riding though for the ABC crowd as it is likely the NDP and Liberals will split the vote.
15 09 01 Jason
Similar to Peterborough-Kwartha, London West will be an interesting three way race. It really depends on the party that is leading Ontario during the final week of the campaign.
Some factors that could be in play for this riding
1. Incumbent Ed Holder seems well liked enough that there could be constituents voting for the local candidate over the party. It helps that he also is a Minister of State and the de facto government representative of this region. Holder is also more than just a Harper puppet like other candidates - so that may help.
2. NDP MPP Peggy Sattler seems to have built a strong grassroots campaign machine. It will be interesting to see how it translates federally.
3. Unless numbers improve, I am skeptical if the Liberals would focus much of their efforts London. In Ontario, they seem to be going all out on the 905 and 416.
15 08 28 Pretender
Polls show this is a very close race - differences among the big three within the margin of error. The voters of this riding have recently shown a taste for something different. NDP victory provincially and unseating incumbents municipally - and gaining representatives that are seemingly doing just that - representing the voter not the party. I'm tipping this one for Matthew Rowlinson.
15 08 25 A.S.
Thanks to Peggy Sattler, London West has gone from an underrated NDP prospect to an overrated NDP prospect--latently, that is, since there's hasn't been much evidence of NDP boosterism in the entries so far; or maybe it's because at heart, LW remains just too comfortably 'Chris Bentley moderate' (and a starrish Liberal candidate helps). Then again, Mulcair's own projected moderation coheres quite well with Sattler's unlikely 'big in Byron' reach. And beyond everything, even if Ed Holder's more amiable than your typical SW Ontario HarperCon he remains vulnerable simply by being 'urban', i.e. if CPC in Ontario echos the provincial PCs in heading for rural-rump territory, he'd be pretty Elizabeth-Witmer-anomalous if he survives...
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Ed Holder is likeable and a minister too. He wins.
15 06 08 Rational Optimist
Aaron H does not even try to cover his bias in his prediction, or hope, for this riding. I agree with others that this will be tighter than London North-Centre (Liberal) or London Fanshawe (NDP), but I believe Holder will hold. His appointment to a ministerial position will win him a few extra votes from the mentions in national media. It's a fair point about Young's high visibility, but it won't be enough to defeat this sitting MP. Conservative hold by a fairly narrow margin. And, if the NDP ?surge? continues, maybe a slightly greater margin.
15 04 30 Aaron H.
Part of Ed Holder's ability to win this riding in the past has revolved around much of his long-standing community involvement which was combined with trends towards the Conservatives in the past few elections. However, the trend is away from the Conservatives this time and he has, in Kate Young, a formidable opponent on the community involvement front. If anyone is more involved in the community than Holder it is Young.
Holder's ministerial appointment is unlikely to help him although he was probably appointed a minister in order to help him win the riding by Harper who desperately needs to hold some seats in Ontario. Susan Truppe was probably Harper's choice to be the minister from London but she is probably going down in flames come October, so Harper chose unnoticed backbencher Holder to fulfill a Science post in his ministry, a post that comes will no power because science isn't something that Harper is remotely interested in.
At this point, I don't think that either Young or Holder have an edge, but more will become clear once the summer rolls around. Holder is a good campaigner, but I suspect that the personable Young will equal him or better him in that regard and it may be on that point on which this race will be decided.
15 04 11 Mr Saturday Night
Given the NDP strength provincially, this could end up being a three way race. It will really come down to the leaders. All 3 local candidates are going to ride the coattails of their leader, for better or worse.
15 03 28 monkey
Interestingly enough since 2004, the actual numbers each party got has closely matched what they were provincewide so while not a national bellwether it is in many ways a provincial bellwether so whichever party wins the popular vote in Ontario will probably hold this. Unlike the other London ridings, this is the most affluent thus meaning the Tory tax cut policies will probably help unlike the other two London ridings where they will hurt, but also as a fairly educated riding, the Liberals could take this, especially if the NDP implode.
15 03 28 Mr. Dave
I wouldn't count the NDP out in this riding, given that the provincial NDP won this seat in a by-election, and then held it in the provincial election.
This looks like a three-way contest.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
London West can be a frustrating riding. Previously it was difficult for the Conservatives to win (when Sue Barnes was the MP) and later it was hard for the Liberals to take back. The Liberal collapse and (arguably) vote splitting gave the CPC a free ride here in 2011. The Liberals have a fresh face, who is also a familiar face, having been an anchor for the local news. While I'm not ready to call this one way or the other, I do suspect this will be an interesting race.
15 03 26 DWN68
This will be one of the closest races in the London area. Kate Young has lots of name recognition from her days as a broadcaster in the London TV/Radio Market. Ed Holder has ben a good MP for London West but will probably prevail by the narrowest of margins. A lot will depend on the national numbers for the Conservatives and the Liberals.

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