Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:40:48

Constituency Profile


Doel, David

Marville, Che

Oliver, John

Young, Terence

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (230/230 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Terence Young


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15 10 15 Marco Ricci
One has to be cautious about writing Terence Young off. As the press have pointed out this week, it does appear he is in danger here since he's been putting out those attacks claiming the Liberals want brothels.
However, it could still be a close race here in the closing days, particularly if the Liberals lose any momentum in the final few days.
15 10 14 Harold
I will make my call the Liberals will win
There has been no major movement of voters to the Conservative in the past few days
When we reflect on the provincial win of 5800 votes as I expect Ontario will reflect the provincial win because, and Oakville will go Liberal.
The riding of Oakville has seen growth since 2011 and that's why I lean that the 2014 provincial results are more predictive of 2015 when we add the recent polls in Ontario.
And at the end of the day present elections are about three things : leader, leader, leader. And I thank the people who volunteered for all the Oakville Candidates. Those who volunteer express their love of Oakville in their service for people like myself who are too busy at work and raising families.
However, in the past few days, the PC candidate and MP Terrence Young, has received some press that there will be the mandated sale of women and brothels with a Liberal Government. Again Oakville is a highly educated riding and this type of comment does not help him.
Joey Smallwood, Premier of Newfoundland, once said, the tide comes in and the tide goes out. At the beautiful lighthouse of Bronte I see a red tide. The tide will change once again in the future - a free and democratic society mandates the election of different parties.
15 10 14 C.E.
Young's pathetic accusation that the Liberals will mandate brothels, injection sites, and marijuana-shops at the open candidate's meeting shows that he's desperate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Yi4Z_RVdg
15 10 13 SC
Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting finds the Liberals with a strong lead: 50 LPC, 38 CPC amongst decided voters, 47 LPC vs 36 CPC amongst all voters.
I hope John Oliver can make time to do his show while also serving in the House of...oh, not that John Oliver. Oh well, that would have made question period far more interesting.
15 10 13 R.H.
Terence Young must know he is in serious trouble because he just stated in a debate sponsored by the Oakville Chamber of Commerce that Justin Trudeau will mandate brothels, the selling of women, and the building of marijuana stores in Oakville. This was a televised debate and the outrageous claims he made during his closing remarks are now circulating on social media. It is incredible that a candidate from any party would stoop to this level. The writing must be on the wall for Mr. Young.
15 10 13 Jeff S
'Mandated Brothels' Young must know he's in trouble. If the LPC wins wins Ontario by more than 5% he's almost certainly gone. Then maybe he can get a job at one of the mandated brothels.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Ah. So now I get why the remark. 'Brothels' Young is done.
15 10 13 JC
Yourg sank his chances with his ridiculous assertion that the Liberals would bring brothels, drug injection sites and marijuana shops into Oakville, this looks like someone who is desperate and is ready to lose.
15 10 14 JC
This one is over and John Oliver is going to Ottawa, Mainstreet Research poll shows
50-Liberal Party
38-Conservative Party
7-Green Party
15 10 09 harold
This is very close
I hope to see something by Thursday
But It might be a Liberal win
What is helping the Liberals
1. It is generally felt the Liberals have run a good campaign. This is not the Shakesperian disaster campaign of Ignatieff --a person you wouldn't want to be in the same restaurant as you.
Trudeau like all party leaders performed well in the debates.
2. The NDP has Orange crashed in Ontario. They were doing so well in the beginning of the campaign. This is the crucial factor in the Liberals win. No disrespect is attended to the fine local NDP candidate.
3. The Liberals seem to be doing reasonably well in polls in the GTA and Ontario
4. Unifor a local union is supporting the Liberals
5. Quite frankly we are very educated people here in Oakville. We have a high post secondary participation and support for Charter rights. Niqab bashing is beneath Oakvillians.
6. I have only seen the normal people who have signs have signs during my runs.
7. Nobody has knocked on my door from any party.
So is it a Liberal win or a Bonnie Brownish pull out victory . I think the next five days will clinch it but something would have to change the Red mood
15 09 29 David Gates
In a sweep election, a riding can be won without a ground game (organization). In 2006, former Liberal MP Bonnie Brown was able to salvage her seat from the Martin ship wreck through a functioning ground game. Mr Young came close to winning that year with his own ground game. It was last minute trends that helped to save Ms Brown (and some of her colleagues).
By 2008, Mr Young had been campaining since his loss in 2006 so his ground game was there and together with trends he was carried accross the finish line in first place.
The 2011 election came about unexpectedly but Mr. Young could have taken it easy and he still would have won. The Liberal candidate Mr Khan, sadly since passed away, had the virtue of having at least been elected to something by winning a seat on Oakville Council.
The riding did not change at all under the latest redistribution which benefits Mr. Young who is a reasonably familar face to even none engaged and low information voters. There have been new housing developements in the riding but Mr Young at least has an organiztion in place to reach these new voters.
Mr Young's workers have been seen out in the riding since before Canada Day. The Liberal workers - not so much. The Liberal Candidate, Mr Oliver is known for getting a very big salary and not much else. While Mr. Young and his workers have been out knocking on doors, Mr Oliver has been seen walking his dog. Nothing wrong with that but maybe he should be knocking on doors.
Some residents of Oakville believe the hastily drafted Bill C-51 is discriminating against them due to their national origins and/or religious beliefs. However, Mr. Oliver will not get many of their votes as the Liberals got it wrong yet again by voting for this bad law and hoping nobody would notice. These voters will either vote NDP, Green or possibly hold their nose and vote CPC if they like Mr Young enough.
Ground Game together with recent regional and national trends should give Mr Young the win this time in Oakville.
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
With Liberal numbers increasing in Ontario in recent polls, 308 now lists Oakville as a 50% chance of going Liberal:
Probably still an edge to the Conservatives based on incumbency & recent history, but a possible opening for the Liberals if Conservative numbers drop over the next month.
15 09 05 Monkey Cheese
I'm questioning the PermaCon predictions for both Oakville ridings. The Liberals are doing much better in Ontario lately and 308 is currently calling Oakville for the Liberals with 50% accuracy, as of September 4. Post Duffygate and Syrian refugee crisis, I think that this is a riding that should be moved to the TCTC category along with its brother riding Oakville-North-Burlington.
15 08 23 A.S.
Oakville may be (as docere says) 'a pretty naturally Tory seat'...but in the traditional 'PC' sense; which means, it's also 'a pretty naturally Paul Martin Liberal seat' (though use caution in projecting from 2011 figures, since those were skewed a titch upwards by Max Khan's candidacy). Which might be moot if Justin's playing too much of the 'out-progressive the NDP' card--speaking of which, given that Che Marville got just short of 8% provincially last year, predictions on *her* behalf are out to lunch (yeah, I know, a lot of Notley's Alberta candidates started from even less, etc)
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this only 58% likely to go Conservative, and I think anything less than about 75% this early in the campaign (or 80% if the challenger is the still-rising NDP) ought to remain TCTC. At 22% of the vote the NDP plus Green vote is more than 7 times greater than the 3 point lead the Cons have over the Liberals. Meaning only 1 in 7 voters from last time have to balk and vote tactically Liberal to put this in play. 2 in 7, and it goes Lib.
The demographics of this area are changing and this in play is no surprise.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This post might appear twice due to technical difficulties.
Current polls have the Liberal's John Oliver, not to be confused with the John Oliver from The Daily Show and Last Week Tonight, putting in a good fight here. The Conservatives haven't been doing too well in the polls lately and it seems like the NDP are slowly eating away at their support. If this trend continues until October 19, then the Liberals just might be able to pick this one up. At the very least this should be moved to TCTC for the time being. This is not a safe Conservative seat.
15 08 03 Docere
The Conservatives have held Oakville since 2008 and won it again by a very wide margin in 2011. The Liberals at present are too weak to be in a position to win it back. If Canadian politics looks to be undergoing a UK style 'Labour vs. Tory' polarization with the Liberals squeezed out, the very affluent suburb of Oakville looks to be a pretty naturally Tory seat.
15 07 15 B Chan
This an important and strategic riding for both the Liberals and NDP that requires a strong candidate to win. The NDP candidate from Oakville is virtually unknown in Brampton East and is at a severe disadvantage by not having any connection to the riding. Resume also does not have any positives other than his affiliation with Jagmeet Singh, which looks like the only basis on which the candidate is running. This is a risky proposition that is overestimating Jagmeet's influence given that his brother, Gurratan Singh, recently ran for Brampton Regional Council (obviously with Jagmeet's active endorsement) and lost. Shows that a lot more is needed to win here. Liberal candidate, Raj, is a popular and well-liked politician. As a Bay street lawyer, he is articulate and can appeal to a greater range of people and is qualified to deal with a diverse range of issues. Think more people will trust him based on that. Although Raj clearly stands out as the superior candidate, it is a tough riding to predict since voting will reflect overall federal sentiment.
15 07 13 ME
Che Marville is the NDP candidate..and she is well organized on the ground. She is mounting a serious campaign to win...
15 04 22 Rational Optimist
I would not feel confident calling this for the Tories. They may have a bit of an edge, but Oliver has good local credentials that the Liberals should be able to capitalize on, and voters in Oakville are perfectly capable of voting for the right Liberal candidate or leader. I think that this one is at least as likely to go Liberal as Oakville North-Burlington. Too close to call.
15 04 04 C.C.
Even if Harper loses most of the GTA, he'll probably hang on here by a reduced margin. Terence Young barely lost in 2006 and won by 10% in 2008 while ridings in Peel, for example, weren't even close. Then he won by 21% in 2011, giving him a buffer for this time around. Furthermore, this is the federal arena where the CPC performs better locally than their provincial counterpart, probably because of the religious vote.
Then there are the candidates themselves. The Liberals are running someone new who is not yet a household name amongst the average voter. Young has the advantage here. Lets face it, he's been around a while and even recently attracted national media coverage with the passing of Vanessa's Law, which tugs on the heartstrings of Oakvillians.
Then there is the national campaign that really makes the most difference. Sorry, but I can't predict that one! For now, put this one in the blue column.
15 03 29 Stevo
This should certainly be changed to TCTC. Oakville's current Conservative credentials are not strong enough to resist a Liberal GTA tide should one occur (and let's face it, it's never difficult to convince GTAers to vote Liberal).
15 03 28 monkey
I would not yet call this for the Tories. I agree if an election was held today, the Tories would probably hold this, but only by 5 points are so. Lets remember the NDP is pretty much non-existent her so even if the Tories get in the low 40s, that won't necessarily be enough to win unlike in most ridings. Using results from past elections, generally if the Tories are tied or ahead in Ontario, they win this. If the Liberals have a 1-5 point lead in Ontario, it could go either way while if the Liberals have a lead of more than 5% in Ontario, it generally goes Liberal.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
Threehundedeight.com is listing Oakville as a tossup, with the CPC at 42% and the Liberals at 41%. The polling numbers seem to show the Liberals at an advantage in Peel and this could seep over into Halton. I think it's too early to make a call here just yet.
15 03 16 Lee Stephenson
MP Terence Young won by 12,000 votes last time. He's running again and seems well-liked overall, so I would call Oakville a 'Conservative hold'. After all, he also won by 5,500 votes in 2008 when much of the GTA went Liberal. So while seats in and bordering the 416 are in Liberal reach, the Tories will probably win most, if not all, Halton Region seats.

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