Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Ottawa Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Akpata, John Andrew Omowole

Dewar, Paul

Harris, Dean T.

Konstantinakos, Damian

Lukawski, Conrad

McKenna, Catherine Mary

Milroy, Tom

Ryan, Stuart

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 6861.06%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Ottawa Centre
   (266/266 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Dewar


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15 10 15 James Bowie
The new Toronto Star poll puts this riding within the margin of error.
The latest national poll puts the LPC at 37.1% and the NDP at 23.7 percent, trending towards the Liberals and against the NDP.
This riding is now too close to call, if not Likely Liberal.
15 10 09 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Research/Postmedia - October 8, 2015
Paul Dewar (NDP) 42%
Catherine McKenna (LPC) 30%
Damian Konstantinakos (CPC) 22%
Probably a win for Paul Dewar based on these numbers, and his incumbency/name recognition and residual Ed Broadbent/Marion Dewar coattails, but clearly a closer race than in 2011. Small possibility of a loss for Dewar if NDP drops any further in Ontario.
15 10 09 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/4) NDP 42%, Lib 30%, Con 22%, Green 6%. The NDP will likely win here but McKenna has been fighting a long and high profile campaign and I can't completely discount her coming through if current trends continue.
15 10 08 Jeff S
Not as big a win as in 2011, but the NDP should hold this.
15 10 07 G
I've recently noticed the NDP running radio ads for Dewar. They are stating that the NDP is the best force to fight Harper. This is almost certainly because they are afraid of the Liberal campaign here, a strong likeable candidate in McKenna and the Liberals polling well in Ontario. This is going to be much closer than most thought and the Liberals could win.
15 10 07 Andrew Alexander
History shows that when the Liberals poll with at least a 10% lead in Ontario they win Ottawa Centre both federally and provincially. Most polls now show the Liberals with a substantial lead in Ontario. I believe this coupled with Catherine McKenna's solid campaign will lead to a Liberal victory in Ottawa Centre.
15 09 23
NDP has been polling well nationally and Dewar is a high ranking member within the party who is personally popular within the riding. If the NDP were to collapse, this would be one of their last remaining seats. My guess is Dewar will win with about a 50% share. McKenna looks like she will put up a good fight and will probably take most of the support that doesn't go to Dewar. I dont see the CPC or Greens being a factor here.
15 09 14
Catherine McKenna has much stronger media relations than previous candidates. She's getting more coverage and entirely positive coverage.
Change is also in the air. In 2011, the national numbers for the LPC were a huge liability. This time they are not.
This could be a key change riding if voters decide they want a change of government.
15 09 12 Adeline96
This is, and probably will remain, the only NDP seat in Ottawa after the election (although the NDP have a chance to make Vanier interesting). Dewar will keep his fortress easily.
15 08 29 A.S.
The puzzling thing about OC is how as it's gone one direction federally, it's gone full speed the other direction provincially--sorta like 00's Windsor being Comartin/Masse federally and Duncan/Pupatello provincially. Which would have posed a problem for Dewar back when Justin was flirting w/ majority territory--and I suppose the Grits are still bidding for that dynamic through the Justin/Wynne co-campaign and the 'left of the NDP' deficit-spending gambit. But that'd be Hail Mary at this point.
15 08 04 Docere
No contest here. Paul Dewar is a hard-working and well-liked MP and central Ottawa is filled with the type of people who vote NDP.
15 07 16 Naythan
Ed Broadbent helped springboard Paul Dewar into Ottawa Centre and Dewar has held on since. Having the gay village, union headquarters, young voters and public servants makes this the perfect recipe for Dewar's re-election.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Unless there is a massive deflation in NDP support in Ontario, the orange team has a lock on this riding.
15 06 13 2015
This will almost certainly be NDP by a landslide, however there could be room for a strong performance by the Green Party, possibly even a distant 2nd place considering the other parties will likely not put as much effort here with a 20000 vote margin.
15 05 17 #ABC51
Really, Liberals? You expect to unseat Paul Dewar, a potential bridge leader before Notley makes her inevitable federal debut, after the C-51 fiasco?
However much people may like McKenna -- and not being from this ridings or being involved in Liberal politics, I don't know or care -- national elections are about national issues, and there is no way that a left-leaning riding with a popular NDP incumbent will change hands in anything other than a 1993-level disaster for the NDP.
15 04 09 Jason
Liberal Catherine McKenna has been working hard on building a strong local organization. She is canvassing a lot and establishing herself in the community.
That being said, Paul Dewar has become an NDP juggernaut. Popular locally, popular nationally and one of the more high profile of the NDP MPs during this parliament cycle.
A side note, this riding consistently displays a higher than average voter turnout. During the last election there was a 75% turnout!
15 04 02 B.W.
Paul Dewar remains personally popular in Ottawa Centre, due to his hard work as foreign affairs critics and community involvement in the riding. The Liberals are pretty much going to put up a good fight for Ottawa but in the end, the edge goes to the NDP.
15 03 29 JC
For Now Paul Dewar definitely has the edge being the incumbent, but I will say that Catherine McKenna has been working this riding incredibly hard, In terms of the Liberal Days of Actions that they've run recently she's had the most contacts with voters in any riding in Canada the last couple of times. I don't think Dewar is going to have it easy this time.
15 03 29 ottawa99
This will be close, but I'm giving the advantage to Dewar for now. He is well liked in the riding, has a high profile within the NDP, and won by a 30 per cent margin last time around. His margin will be much lower this time, but I don't think the current Liberal numbers in Ontario will allow them to take this one.
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
Advantage to Paul Dewar for now. He has incumbency & name recognition and also the fact that since this is the only NDP seat in Eastern Ontario, the NDP will make this riding a priority by focusing a lot of resources here. This is probably a seat the Liberals would only win back from Dewar if they were to form a Majority Government some day. However, since the Liberals win this riding by large margins provincially with MPP Yasir Naqvi, there is a Liberal base of support here. And I have noticed that new Liberal candidate Catherine McKenna has been making an effort to campaign here. So Dewar may see his numbers drop several points from the score he got in the Layton Wave.
15 03 22 CU Political Scientist
No only did Dewar win by large margins in previous elections and is popular locally, his riding also has $120K in the bank (according to Elections Canada returns).
Money isn't the only thing that matters in an election, but it certainly helps.
He has past support, a high profile, local connections (since parliament is in his riding, he never has to miss events) and a major campaign war chest ... I don't see Dewar being defeated.
15 03 21 Brian A
Dewar has done good work on the foreign affairs file for the NDP, and is one of Tom's top performers. I don't see him losing here.

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