Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Ottawa South

Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:06:32

Constituency Profile


Balkissoon, Dev

Brown, George

Gullon, Al

McGuinty, David

Redins, John

Wasslen, Larry

Wilson, Damien

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 8951.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Ottawa South
   (238/238 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David McGuinty


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15 09 21 John L
McGuinty is sure to take this riding and is overwhelmingly ahead in the sign wars on private property.
The surprise here might be who finishes second.
Traditionally, the NDP has finished a distant third, but with a strong candidate in George Brown and a weak CPC one in Balkinsoon, the Dippers might nose ahead of the CPC.
15 08 29 A.S.
The clue to the McGuinty clan's success is in how, in their way, they embody the same salt-of-the-earth sensible-coalition approach that the HarperCons rode en route to a majority--maybe that's why the seat slid down the Con-target priority list after 2004/6, and why the Iggy disaster left little more than a token dent. Interesting bit of trivia: the NDP candidate is a former municipal councillor who unsuccessfully bid for the CPC nomination here in 2007--the sensible-coalition dynamic extends far and wide...
15 08 08 R.O.
Well I'd like to see David Mcguinty face more of a challenge I'm not convinced it be this year as too many ridings in play in Ottawa area for other parties to focus much attention here . his margin of victory in 2011 was also large considering how bad the liberals did that year.
15 08 04 Docere
Ottawa South is right up there with St. Paul's and Scarborough-Agincourt as one of the safest ridings for the Liberals in Ontario. Dalton McGuinty may be out of politics, but his brother David should easily be re-elected.
15 06 05 seasaw
Good joke ottawa99, this was once a safe Tory riding ? Well, the federal riding of Ottawa South was created in 1988 and has only elected Liberals, mostly with over 50% of the vote, the previous riding of Ottawa-Carleton, which I believe contains 85% of the new riding was around from 1962 to 1988, it was Rt.Hon. John Turner's old riding, only elected Tories twice, once in a 1976 byelection and once in the Mulroney landslide of 1984, the rest of the time were Liberals often with over 50% of the vote. Nothing'll change this time, though David McGuinty may come across like his brother, but for some reason, people here love both him and his brother. Add to it, the fact that the riding only elects Liberal and you have a very easy prediction.
15 03 29 ottawa99
Although this riding was once a safe Tory riding, it has remained in Liberal hands over the past 25 years both federally and provincially. Given the current Liberal numbers in Ontario, I don't see this changing this time around.
15 03 23 Fairview Resident
The Liberals have closed the gap in Ontario, and the Tories will have a tough time defending some of their other Ottawa seats. Trying to close an 11-point gap in Ottawa South when your party has lost its 20-point lead province- and nation-wide would be a foolish waste of resources.

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