Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-27 20:31:30

Constituency Profile


Coyne, Deborah

Larocque, Kc

Poilievre, Pierre

Rodgers, Chris

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (96/172 polls, 59.16% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Pierre Poilievre

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (74/172 polls, 40.81% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gordon O'Connor

   Ottawa South
   (2/172 polls, 0.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David McGuinty


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15 10 17 Spx
Mainstreet posted today that the losses for the Conservatives are the most pronounced in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. Does this make Carleton winable for the Liberals? I think they will pick up a good 20% but should still come short a couple of percentage points. So, I think it should still stay Conservative.
15 10 17 South Islander
Any local polls done in Ottawa ridings are showing the Liberals ahead of the Tories outside the MOE. No polling has been done in Carleton - probably because everyone assumed that it's a Conservative lock. But if polling indicates that the Liberals are clearly ahead in districts that they lost 54/26 (Kanata-Carleton) or 51/27 (Nepean) in 2011, they could be close in districts they lost 62/21. Granted, both K-C and Nepean have no incumbents and Carleton does. At this point however, Pierre Poilievre may have a negative incumbency factor, given that he embodies all of the arrogance and contempt for democracy that has driven voters oust this government. This is the most Conservative riding in Ottawa, but it isn't rural Alberta - people around the Capital are clearly sick of this government and prepared to vote for change. EPP has probably made the safe call, but my gut tells me that Poilievre will lose (or at least be in an unexpectedly close race).
15 09 21 John B
While Polievre's support would have to utterly collapse for anyone else to have a shot here, Chris Rogers is giving it his best. A hard-working guy and team up against long odds... the only hope would be for the new, more urban parts, of the riding to go overwhlmingly Liberal. Due to the high public service element of places like Stittsville, the Libs should get the lion's share of the votes there... but it likely won't be enough to make a difference. But hey! You never know!
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
Poilievre is a polarizing figure for sure but people still elect the guy, don't think that'll change here in 2015.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
Keep in mind that 40% of this riding never had to vote for Skippy before, and he's considered an odious and controversial figure even among many Cons.
What works in Skippy's favour is that literally no one believes that he would have any influence over the Party after Stephen Harper is gone, and likely would not even stay in politics. He's not a potential leader, say.
The worst things about Pierre Poilievre were known long before the 2011 election. Notably, that he believed that native children compensated for sexual assault and other crimes against them owed an accounting for 'value for money' to the government that forced them into a life of horror & abuse. This is not an attitude that most people have toward white victims.
Given that they voted for him after that, his 'Fair Elections Act' voter suppression and gutting of Elections Canada is unlikely to dissuade them further. So with regret and disgust I have to call this one for the Cons. 308 says it's 90% with only the wavering Liberals as clear challenger at half the vote. I think that must count as a lost cause.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The safest seat in Ottawa, and maybe even in Ontario, for the Conservatives. Poilievre may be the biggest partisan hack in Parliament, but he'll easily win this riding in a landslide as this is a blue, rural riding. It would have to take a huge scandal for him to lose here and even then I'm not sure if that would take him out.
15 06 14 A.S.
A predominantly rural-exurban 'blue necklace' seat for the National Capital Region (i.e. containing many of 2010's last redoubts of Larry O'Brien mayoral support)--put it this way: in the event that Ontario's federal Cons wind up reduced to an angry, unlikeable, mostly-rural rump (i.e. a la their provincial PC counterparts' fatal pigeonhole), Poilievre couldn't be more poetically positioned to prevail. That is, unless his bluster's becoming too much for the token-yet-still-growing sprawl of Goulbourn, Kanata, south Gloucester et al to bear--you can run, but you can't hide, that sort of thing...
15 03 29 ottawa99
Things would have to go truly disastrously for the Tories to lose this one.
15 03 28 B.W.
Carleton is a mostly a rural riding that tends to vote for right leaning politicians. This make it easier for Pierre Polievre with his high profile on Parliament Hill to be reelected in new riding.
15 03 26 Dr. Bear
Poilievre is skipping on over to this riding. Should be a safe bet for him even though it looks like most of the Ottawa region is turning red.

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