Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

St. Catharines

Prediction Changed
2015-03-27 20:31:40

Constituency Profile


Bittle, Chris

Dykstra, Rick

Erskine-Fournier, Susan

Fannon, Jim

Waziruddin, Saleh

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4360.88%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   St. Catharines
   (234/234 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rick Dykstra


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15 10 16 Dr. Bear
I did a double-take when I saw this but three hundredweight had this riding within three points. I'm not completely sure of that, but if liberal numbers continue to rise in Ontario, we could see this going for team red. I am cautiously saying TCTC.
15 10 15 Spx
I was actually going to call this for the Conservatives but at the looks of it, their numbers are still dropping like a stone. Maybe St.Catharines is going to go the same as in the provincial elections. If it does go red, it's going to be a really bad night for the Conservatives in Ontario and Brantford-Brant, Cambridge, Perth Wellington and even Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound will probably turn red. I still think it might just stay Conservative by a vote or two but with momentum being definitely with the Liberals and a few days more to go, I think I'll actually call it for the Liberals.
15 10 15 JC
I think the Liberals will win this on election day, it's at the very least too close to call, Dykstra's scandal hurts and the Liberals are at over 43 percent in Ontario, they will easily take this seat at that level.
15 10 15
Trudeau campaign stop here late in the campaign (Oct. 14th) indicates that the Libs think there is a solid chance of winning this riding. I'd say it's TCTC at this point.
15 10 12 Spx
I think St-Catharines could become a very close race as well. I still believe it favours the Conservatives though. I would put it into TCTC but a Conservative prediction still seems quite reasonable at this point in the race.
15 10 09 Dr. Bear
Dykstra buying vodka for the underage girls will not result in his expulsion from the conservatives, nor will it have any affect on his re-election. His alibi is water-tight: he was in a bar and anyone close to being underage was, presumably, carded by the establishment's staff. No reasonable person will hold this against him. Had he known, or should have reasonably suspected they were underage, then this could be trouble. Never the less, I think the CPC would have tried to find a way to keep him around. He's been a good spokesman for the party and a recognizable face in the media.
15 10 08 South Islander
308.com has the Liberals 12 points behind the Tories. But this doesn't take into account the Dykstra scandal or the NDP candidate's admission that she doesn't think her party can balance the budget. Both developments favour the Liberals. Dykstra won by a mere 0.5 when the Liberals won Ontario by 4.8. Forum, Ekos, Nanos and Abacus all have the Liberals ahead by 4-7 in Ontario. If the Liberals win Ontario by around 5, the two local factors in St. Catharines could neutralize any incumbency advantage and cost Dykstra his seat. I am calling this Liberal because I think Dykstra would lose if the election were today and because the Liberals have momentum.
15 10 01
Several stories tonight regarding accusations that Rick Dykstra purchased liquor for minors at the Mansion House in St. Catharines. Given that registration deadline has passed and NDP candidate is weak, this goes to the Liberals if Dykstra is forced out.
15 10 02 Monkey Cheese
Conservative incumbent Rick Dykstra found himself in a controversy in which he allegedly bought hundreds of dollars of alcohol for underage girls and that one of the girls was offered a bribe by someone from the Dykstra campaign to deny it ever happening. He's of course denying it. It's hard to say how this will hurt him and impact the race, but this reeks of hypocrisy from the party claiming to be 'tough on crime'. Not making a prediction just yet, but it's always worth discussing how a scandal can impact a race, particularly with an incumbent involved.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
Stephen Harper visited St. Catharines yesterday, and this was commented upon by reporter David Akin. As David Akin said, it's interesting that Harper spent time coming to a riding that has voted solidly Conservative in recent elections. A riding like this was expected to be pretty secure for the Conservatives when this year began. However, as David Akin said on Twitter, the fact that Harper was here may be an indication that he is 'playing defense' right now.
Too early to reach any conclusions, but an interesting development to keep an eye on.
15 07 18 A.S.
Dykstra has been sort of a blond southward pendant to Patrick Brown as so-called hardworking/popular young 'provincial leadership potential' CPC incumbents go--of course, Dykstra didn't run, while Brown ran and won. I'd be careful about upholding St. Kitts as either a swing/belwether riding or a stick-by-incumbent riding, especially given the mercurial electoral patterns over the past third of a century--and Jim Bradley's long provincial tenure for the Grits has more to do with his larger-than-lifeness, i.e. if you want to stick to an incumbent through thick and thin, said incumbent ought to offer an excuse to do so. (By comparison, former Grit MP Walt Lastewka was more like Chretien/Martin wallpaper--and rather than 'sticking by him', voters defeated him in 2006.) Look at it this way--St. Kitts is a rust-belty urban riding in the Niagara Peninsula, not a rapid-growth super-suburban-exurban super-satellite like Patrick Brown's Barrie. There *is* an evangelical-Protestant undercurrent in addition to 'Reagan Democrat' populism fueling any CPC advantage; but still, in the industrialized border region, matters of 'the economy, stupid' can *really* paint perceived Conservative hubris in a nasty light--and never mind the Liberals; the rising/competitive NDP would *covet* a seat like this, and might (with ballast from its NDP-held fed/prov neighbours) even have a better chance at it at this point. As for what hubris can do to the Tories in St Kitts: in the 1993 Kim Campbell wipeout, Ken Atkinson had the worst share (15.25%) of *any* PC incumbent in Ontario. (Again, what was that about voters sticking by their incumbents here? Hogwash.)
15 07 04 seasaw
Calling this for the Conservatives is a bit premature at this stage of the game. Sure, Dykestra may be popular, but one must also remember that this riding's gone to the winner in every election since 1984. Right now, it doesn't look like the Conservatives are going to win, that's of course, if you believe in the polls, and of course the election isn't until next fall, a lot can happen between now and then.
15 03 28 monkey
While I agree at the moment it favours the Tories, this riding generally is a bellwether and thus usually backs the winner although with the Tories having the incumbent advantage that should give them the edge here.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
I'll agree with one of my profs here. Dykstra is very strong in his riding, and the riding generally re-elects their members. Not going anyway but CPC. It looks like Craig thinks the CPC wont win a seat.
15 03 26 Jason
St. Catharines is neither a Liberal nor Conservative riding.
In a close race in Ontario, Rick Dykstra is popular enough to hold this riding.
15 03 26 D.M.
Not a swing riding, but a riding that stays with long time incumbents, Dykstra is very popular here.
Demographics lean towards the Conservatives as well for the most part(though a very small rural part of the riding was lopped off in the latest redistribution).
I grant it's not an implausible riding for the Liberals to win but it would take a pretty big shift from where current polling trends are and a implosion of CPC numbers.
15 03 22 CU Political Scientist
I disagree.
I am not a conservative but I think Rick Dykstra will get re-elected. He's largely popular locally and received strong support in the last election. Also - completely, counter to the last post - St.catharines is not a swing riding and has a history of sticking with long-term incumbents.
Here's the modern history of St.Catharines: from 1979 to 1993 it was PC, in 1993 it elected a Liberal who held it again in 1997, 2000 and 2004, in 2006 Dykstra was elected and has held it since. And provincially, it has had the same MPP since 1977 (37 years). This is NOT a swing riding
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Historically despite 2011 results a swing riding that swings very hard.
Incumbent not a big edge here. On September 7, 2010, the federal Ethics Commissioner, issued a report[18] in which the Commissioner found that St. Catharines MP Rick 'Dykstra personally solicited funds from individuals with whom he had official dealings shortly before and after the fundraising event?. While the Commissioner determined that this soliciting was not in breach of the Conflict of Interest Act, the Commissioner did note that, in this case, the Act was a lesser standard than under the Conflict of Interest and Post-Employment Code for Public Office Holders which applied before the Stephen Harper government came to power.
This is pretty much the guy's whole track record. Plus billing unrightful expenses when working for John Baird.
Even the Conservatives here might want to be rid of this embarrassment and aren't likely to work that hard for him.

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