Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 23:58:44

Constituency Profile


Flannigan, Kara

Hayes, Bryan

Morrison, Skip

Sheehan, Terry

Taffarel, Mike

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1380.34%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (187/187 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bryan Hayes


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15 10 17 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Hayes (CPC) 36%
Sheeham (LPC) 35%
Morrison (NDP) 23%
Flannigan (GPC) 6%
15 10 15 Jeff S
Oracle poll has it 36-35-23, CPC, LPC, NDP. Still too close to call.
15 09 30 NJam101
I was quite sure that Skip Morrison would win here at one point but family of mine in the Sault are now pretty sure that Liberal candidate Terry Sheehan will be the next MP. Even a poll showed the Liberal candidate to be leading in a close 3-way race. Sheehan is a city councillor and very well known. The Sault is a place where incumbents should never get too comfortable going by the area's history which means Bryan Hayes wouldn't be safe even if the CPC wins another majority.
This is a riding where anti-CPC voters will support who they think is best positioned to defeat Hayes. And there are a lot of those types of people here. The recent rise in Liberal support and debate performances by Trudeau have likely convinced many that Sheehan is the one.
15 09 27 R.O.
The environics polls indicates the riding is a rare and true 3 way race. I still feel Bryan Hayes has somewhat of an advantage as he's the incumbent . harper also visited the riding a couple weeks back when he was in northern Ontario and shows conservatives trying to hold the riding. Mulcair has yet to visit northern Ontario this election but did visit some ridings during the summer. Sault Ste Marie was a surprise conservative pick up in 2011 but was a riding they had been targeting for some time as vote had been gradually increasing in the riding. But this riding is an odd race and tough to say what will happen here in remaining weeks or even clear who this vote splitting group will endorse if both opposition parties essentially tied here .
15 09 26 Political Observer
In Sault Ste. Marie, a recent poll of 632 voters completed between Sept. 18 and 21 by Leadnow, indicate that Liberal Terry Sheehan is leading the race slightly with 34% voter support. Conservative incumbent Bryan Hayes has 31% support of the local voters and NDP challenger Skip Morrison on the heels with 30%.
See: http://www.saultstar.com/2015/09/25/strategic-voting-group-eyes-sault-riding
15 09 03
This race is definitely too close to call. Skip Morrison is a new-comer, so we cannot count on Tony Martin's old drawing power, and Terry Sheehan is a well known City Councillor who will split the centre left vote. This is shaping up to be a classic 'up-the-middle' scenario for the Conservative Hayes, who has a really solid track record of attracting infrastructure upgrades. Compared to many other parts of industrial Ontario, the Sault has weathered the marginal economic times pretty well. It might be another one of those times when the voters simply leave well enough alone and stay with the proven success they already have, especially as the economy is starting to improve again and is taking centre stage in the news cycle.
15 08 30 A.S.
Given how the Soo's been so bizarrely different-drummerish over the past quarter century--swinging *against* the NDP when it should be swinging *toward*, and vice versa, and doing weird things like opting for blue Hayes federally or red Orazietti provincially--by some crazed logic Bryan Hayes could wind up being the only Con survivor btw/Cheryl Gallant and Manitoba. Or, Terry Sheehan as the only elected Liberal btw/Ottawa and Winnipeg. So if I'm not taking a NDP pickup as a given, it's either 'for the heck of it', or it isn't...
15 08 28 Nick M.
Boy I haven't analyzed ridings in over 5 years. Surprised to see the Conservative win this. But that was the conservative of then, and they are tired out incumbent party in a economically challenged riding. Won't go Conservative, and giving it to NDP since other posters here aren't saying Liberal.
15 08 22 R.O.
The history of this riding would indicate another close race , all the elections from 2004-2011 were won by small margins. I'd also wonder if ndp do as well without Tony Martin as a candidate , he had been mpp and mp for a while and was pretty well known in this riding. This is also a riding the ndp lost in 2011 when they had a lot of momentum that election so its tough to get a feel for. Bryan Hayes has also now been mp for 4 years so he has the incumbent advantage going into this election. Although not a traditional conservative riding its still as area they found support in. the liberals are still a factor here as well and running a city councillor and trudeau visited the riding .
15 08 20 jdnorth
sorry but i live in this riding and Bryan Hayes is a bit of a joke around town. he makes Tony Martin of the NDP look saintly and under-appreciated by comparison. i think Skip should have no problem here. threehundredeight.com is now calling this massively for the NDP.
15 08 10 Docere
Thanks for stopping by, Bryan.
Seriously, although the Tories pulled an upset in 2011 in the Soo, it'll only take a small drop in the Conservative vote and a slight rise in the NDP vote to take this back. It wouldn't surprise me if the Liberals dropped to around 10% as the anti-Harper vote coalesces around the NDP.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
With the NDP at a 69% chance of winning in this riding according to the Threehundredeight, as of this post, I don't see how the NDP can lose. It's too little too late for this backbencher Conservative.
15 07 31 Monkey Cheese
I don't think it matters how much pork is being fed into this riding. The NDP are polling much better in Northern Ontario and are projected to win this riding. The NDP narrowly lost here last time and there enough dissatisfied Conservatives and strategic Liberals and Greens to come up with that difference.
15 07 29
Just to provide a little update since my last posting here, there has been an NDP nomination putting Skip Morrison on the ticket, and the Liberals have Terry Sheehan running although this site does not yet show it. In addition to Bryan Hayes' accumulated successes to date we can add a recently announced $30 million interest free repayable loan to Essar Steel for upgrades to their operational infrastructure. This combined with a matching loan from the Province and $180 million from Essar will total $240 million in upgrades, creating up to 200 permanent jobs and 600 spin-off jobs. This is what having an effective MP in government means to a steel town. Skip can talk all he wants about being a union man and a dedicated supporter of Essar, which no doubt he is, but it is Bryan who has delivered the goods. If the port upgrade goes ahead, we will be looking at half a billion in infrastructure upgrades to this Company and its immediate supporting infrastructure. It simply makes sense to stay with a proven MP and voters will see this in October.
15 06 15 CCR
Don't be too hasty in writing off Bryan Hayes. Those who say he does nothing for the riding should remember he was an important player in saving the rail link to Sudbury, getting extended funding for the rail line through Agawa Canyon, getting funding for both Algoma University and Sault College, extending increased funding to ensure the start of the new bridge plaza, and getting the new Port of Sault Ste. Marie project to its third stage of project development. Together these funding achievements (15M, 2M,?, ?, 66M, and 5M)combine for over 90M to date with the port potentially adding another $200M. These are solid achievements in real infrastructure improvements that will benefit the local economy for decades top come. Tony Martin always got the 'nice guy' dividend at the polls, but he is not able to run any more. Any shift of the numbers toward Terry Sheehan of the Liberals will be at the expense of the NDP, who have not even been able to conclude a nomination race yet. This will not be as close as some people might wish it to be, and Bryan will likely, and logically, be the winner.
15 04 24 jdnorth
Bryan Hayes was a nice reminder to the people of Sault Ste. Marie what you get when you elect a backbench barking seal. He was MIA for the first three years and now he just pops up to make funding announcements, which he messes up anyways. He will be toppled easily by whoever the NDP nominates.
15 04 08 Mr. Dave
All it would take for the Conservative to be defeated here is a 1500-vote shift of 'Blue' Liberals to return to the Liberal fold; and given that the Conservatives are polling about 8-10% below what their level of support was in 2011, I can see this as a riding where the ABC effort would potentially see a return to the NDP.
Once all the candidates are chosen, a clearer picture will emerge, but for the moment, I'm looking at a narrow NDP victory here.
15 04 08 NJam101
It is really too early to predict what will happen in the Soo but at this point I would say the NDP candidate would have the best chance of winning. I'm only saying this because that is who I feel the anti-CPC majority of voters would rally behind. It also of course will depend on who the candidates are and the national campaigns. I am still amazed that conservative Bryan Hayes won last time. It wasn't a huge win by any means but quite an achievement for a CPC in Northern Ontario.
I've been hearing that many in the Soo are not happy with him as MP and that having an MP who's part of the party in power wasn't very beneficial overall. Hayes tends to be out of touch with most issues and certainly has not gained any support. The Sault is also known for defeating incumbent MPs and MPPs from whatever party unexpectedly. There isn't the same type of loyalty to incumbents that you will find in most of Northern Ontario. One example was PC James Kelleher who won in 1984 with the Mulroney landslide. Kelleher was a major cabinet minister yet was defeated by NDP candidate Steve Butland in 1988 even though the Mulroney PCs went on to win another majority.
15 03 29 monkey
The Tory win was a bit of a surprise as this is not normally Tory friendly riding never mind many of the rural parts where they are stronger have been lopped off. The only question though is the NDP has declined nationally so it would mean going against the national trend while the Liberals have a lot of ground to cover although ironically looking at the federal and provincial results it seems most of the vote switchers in this riding are Liberal-Conservative rather than NDP-Liberal. Still too close to call until we see the candidates and how the local campaign unfolds.

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