Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Scarborough Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-09-12 20:08:27

Constituency Profile


Androutsos, Katerina

James, Roxanne

Thompson, Lindsay

Wilson, Alex

Zahid, Salma

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Scarborough Centre
   (179/196 polls, 91.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Roxanne James

   Scarborough Southwest
   (17/196 polls, 8.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dan Harris


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15 10 17 DSR
With little more than a third of the vote in 2011 and the opposition split down the middle the Cons just managed to sneak this riding last time round. Not going to happen again in vastly less favourable circumstances this time. Comfortable Lib win.
15 10 16 TeamTrudeau
This will likely be one of the closest races. Have seen considerably more Tory signs in neighborhoods, and many people I have heard are voting Conservative. That being said, Zahid may get the large ethnic group.
15 10 15 prognosticator15
James is a good Cons candidate for this riding, with much expertise, but the overhyped Liberal rise is indeed clear in the Toronto area, if not elsewhere, pushed by anti-Conservative media, while NDP support is indeed down. No Cons candidate is safe in places like Scarborough where anti-Cons immigrant vote is electorally decisive. Calls to repeal C24 are popular in immigrant ridings, and the Liberal candidate Zahid, even if rather unaccomplished, builds on Liberal Party opposition to such bills. Jason Kenney's immigrant appeal agenda may yet work in many places, but not here. Overall, leftist parties remain dominant in this area, and I expect Scarborough to return zero Cons MPs this time, with Liberals returning 5 or all 6 MPs.
15 10 07 R.O.
I saw the forum poll , I'm surprised the results were that close as this riding has been a historically liberal riding and until Roxanne James won in 2011 scarborough had not elected a conservative mp federally since the 80's . my thoughs on some conservative mp's in Toronto as that they would easily win there area's in a city councillor election if race just about candidates running not political party they represent. but the liberal and ndp brands are strong in Toronto this year and making for tougher races than last election. Anyways looking at poll it does not appear Roxanne James is out of the race here just yet but the ndp is doing worse than 2011 .
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
Roxanne James trails in Scarborough Centre
Forum Poll - October 5th
Salma Zahid (43%) Liberal
Roxanne James (36%) Conservative
Alex Wilson (19%) NDP
15 10 05 Jeff S
Forum poll gives Liberal a 7 point lead which, given the current trend, will likely hold. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2401/liberal-zahid-in-first-place/
15 10 06 Monkey Cheese
Agreed with the Liberal call here. A riding poll from Forum shows Conservative incumbent Roxanne James behind the Liberal candidate here. That combined with resurgent Liberals numbers in Ontario (the past five Nanos polls show them with a clear lead in the province) and I think this will be a Liberal gain.
Forum: LPC: 43% CPC: 36% NDP: 19% GRN: 2%
15 10 02 Dr. Bear
Vote split in 2011 won this for the CPC. With the NDP running third in Ontario, this riding is going red.
15 09 10 Marco Ricci
Scarborough Centre was an actual example of vote-splitting in 2011. A third of the riding voted for each of the 3 main parties, letting CPC Roxanne James sneak through the middle and narrowly win the riding by a few points.
The irony for most Liberal & NDP voters is that James is conservative and doesn't really represent where the majority of voters are on the spectrum here. There are now 'Stop Roxanne James' campaigns online dedicated to helping progressive voters beat her this time, particularly after her previous anti-gay positions surfaced in the press last year.
However, the question in 2015 is, will the non-Conservative voters be able to figure out how to organize their votes so they beat James, or could she sneak through again? At the moment it appears that the Liberals have the edge here (87% chance of a win according to 308), but there may remain some uncertainty until October.
15 09 07 Mr. Dave
Not sure how this one is going to turn out, but if there's any overlapping fall-out from Scarborough-Rouge River Conservative Jerry Bance's recent behavior, this seat won't be staying Conservative on Election night.
15 09 05 R.O.
This riding wasn't on anyone radar in 2011 and then all of a sudden long time liberal mp John Cannis lost his seat to conservative candidate Roxanne James when the voters were counted. She has now been mp for the riding for 4 years and increased her profile in the riding. The liberals and ndp have new candidates who have not run in the riding before and not really high profile. I think it still remains a close 3 way race this year and still a lot of campaign left till its clear who might win.
15 08 27 Jason
There is no way that Roxanne James gets re-elected here. This might be one of the few ridings across the country where the incumbent CPC MP finishes in third place.
James is not a popular local MP, though she is adored by the social conservative wing of the party.
The Conservatives were not expecting to win Scarborough Centre last time around and they only won this riding due to a perfect vote split. The central campaign is not making a play for this riding. In the 416, they will put their focus on trying to hold their seats in Etobicoke and North York.
5 months ago, I predicted this will be low hanging fruit for the Liberals. The riding still leans Liberal, but with the NDP surging as high as they are in some polls - this has become a two way race between the Liberals and NDP.
15 08 22 Billy
I disagree with the previous submissions. Ms. James is very hard working and is well liked in Ottawa. Also, having spoken with a number of S-C voters, she is very popular in the riding. I see her winning a very close race.
15 08 16 Swellow
This was a 3 way race in 2011. And because the NDP is up higher than 2011, and made inroads in scarborough, I think they will win.
15 07 11 ME
This will be pick up for the NDP....The Tory MP is weak and not up to the job...The NDP is building a ground game which will sweep James out of Office...
15 07 05 A.S.
One thing to consider about the 2011 SC result is that John Cannis was one of the more blatantly autopilot class-of-93 Libs out there; so with the collapse of Iggy, voters finally had an alibi to boot him out of there. It'd certainly be strange if the NDP *didn't* seek to build on its 2011 share; and as for the Grits, one huge fallback they have is the strength of their provincial organization (i.e. Brad Duguid continuing to have massive landslides as if the Orange Crush never happened). If there's a roster of potential third-place Cons, Roxanne James is definitely among them--unless she manages to rally the Thomson Park Ford Fest troops, of course...
15 06 27
Sama Zahid canvasses every day and is incredibly connected within the riding. The Conservatives won't hold this and the NDP candidate doesn't have a strong team in place. A lot of NDP resources won't be given to this riding in comparison to others which the Liberals could take from the NDP in Scarborough.
15 05 17 J.H
Used to live in this riding and there were lots of Greeks here and all of us voted Liberal. But now that almost all the Europeans have left Scarborough, and since the NDP is gaining grounds in Ontario, I am predicting an NDP pick-up.
15 05 16 Gillian
The NDP are running the Reverend of a local Presbyterian congregation against the most socially conservative MP in the GTA (perhaps all of Ontario). With a tight three way race and an unknown Liberal candidate, look for the NDP to take this seat.
15 03 28 monkey
Easy Liberal win here as despite being a three way race, the Liberals should pick up some of the soft Tory voters which alone would put them over the top and pick up a lot of NDP voters as the NDP has returned to traditional levels of support thus a slight decline in Tory support and big decline in NDP support should mean an easy Liberal win here.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Classic example of vote splitting. NDP support has dropped to pre-orange wave levels, which means the Liberals will benefit. CPC is down from 2011. A safe Liberal take-back.
15 03 19 Jason
Low hanging fruit for the Liberals. This riding has been a traditional stronghold for them. The Liberals narrowly lost this riding when the the party was polling at 25% last election. Even if the Liberals lose the election, they will do much better than 25%. The incumbent Conservative MP is not noteworthy either.

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