Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Scarborough-Rouge Park

Prediction Changed
2015-09-07 22:36:47

Constituency Profile


Anandasangaree, Gary

Lewis, Leslyn

Shanthikumar, KM

Winter, Calvin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1120.27%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Pickering-Scarborough East
   (95/190 polls, 45.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Corneliu Chisu

   Scarborough-Rouge River
   (65/190 polls, 40.50% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rathika Sitsabaiesan

   (30/190 polls, 13.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McKay


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15 10 03 wasyl
only NDP signs in my area. Looking forward to debate on Thursday.
15 09 24 Jeff S
In this riding, don't know if being opposed to abortion and SSM will help or hurt the NDP. http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/ndp-stands-by-anti-abortion-same-sex-marriage-views-of-toronto-area-candidate.html
15 09 23 Kyle H
I don't know if 'electoral reform' has ever been described as a 'sleeper issue' before, at least not in a general election. The fact is that anyone engaged enough to care about electoral reform as a primary, secondary, or tertiary cause - and that isn't many people - have probably already decided their vote at this point. Any drift from the lack of a Green candidate here (and we don't know if thats actually true yet, they still have a week) isn't going to be enough, people don't vote Green just because they're granola-munching, full-PR supporting enviromentalists you know.
This race, like many of the Scarborough races, will come down to the candidate and leader popularity among the different community groups here. Both the NDP and Liberals have strong candidates and good ground game, but the race and trend favours the Liberals here at the moment. That can change in an instant of course, but I'll wait for that moment before I start up with a different call.
15 09 20 Gary Dale
I agree with the overall prediction of a two-way race. While the Conservative incumbent from the former Pickering - Scarborough East riding may have a shot in Pickering, the debacle over the 'peegate' from the original Conservative candidate has squashed their chances.
The sleeper issue on this is electoral reform. With the Liberals waffling over proportional representation, the NDP's clear stand coupled with the lack of a Green Party candidate mean that NDP should pick up both the environmental and electoral reform vote in this riding.
15 09 12 Adeline96
I'm not entirely sure why the disqualification of the Conservative candidate here resulted in a Liberal call. I don't think the Conservatives were in this race to begin with, and this riding is more likely an NDP-Liberal fight. Poll aggregators miss the local factors in their seat projections, and this has a good chunk of the former riding where a little known but ethnically popular NDP candidate tripled the NDP vote to 41% and ended a 23 year Liberal dynasty. I think the NDP candidate here has done a lot of work to keep the party's competence in the riding, and at the very least Rouge Park should remain Too Close to Call until there's a riding poll or something of substance indicating the Liberals have an easy win here.
15 09 08 Teddy Boragina
Okay, I admit that perhaps my predicting a Conservative win here is a bit of 'showmanship'. It would take quite the poll swing for the Tories to win this seat.
However, it is quite possible that if replaced with a quality candidate, especially with so much time before the election, that the tories can still win.
15 09 07 Tony Ducey
The Liberals win here. Guess the Conservatives need a new candidate now after their candidate was caught peeing in a cup.
15 09 07 MH
What Bance's withdrawal has accomplished is to wreck the CPC fortunes in this riding. It's now a two-horse race between the Liberals and the NDP, one that is much too early to call.
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
Conservative candidate Jerry Bance has stepped down after being caught in the urination scandal on film by CBC Marketplace:
15 09 07 R.O.
Updating my prediction , I don't think the loss of tory candidate Jerry Bance over peegate alters the race here that much as tories still have time to find a new candidate. And riding wasn't really a cpc target this year anyways even though it was close in 2011. Its more of a liberal/ndp race in this part of Scarborough. And with a lot of campaign time left and being open without an incumbent its not really clear who has the advantage.
15 09 07 Jeff S
Well it won't be Bance, since he seems to believe that a coffee cup is a toilet.
15 09 07 Brian Lonsdale
Well, the Conservatives are not going to win this district now that Jerry Bance is no longer the candidate after it was revealed that he was caught ON VIDEO TAPE by CBC's Marketplace PEEING INTO A CUSTOMER'S CUP, rinsing it out and putting it back with the clean cups.
Sort of a metaphor on Stephen Harper's campaign so far. Even his candidates are 'raining on his parade.'
15 09 07 Prairie Bumpkin
Too close to call. Conservative candidate Jerry Bance has been removed as a candidate after reports surfaced over September 2015 long weekend that he was the contractor that urinated in a coffee mug in someone's home. This was a part of a CBC Marketplace investigation over contractors not knowing what to do during house calls. This is damaging, but the CPC moved swiftly to remove him as the candidate.
15 09 07 Mr. Dave
You can forget about the Conservatives' chances in this riding thanks to the disgraceful conduct of candidate Jerry Bance.
NDP gain!
15 09 06 Monkey Cheese
A CBC sting operation shows Conservative candidate Jerry Bance urinating in a homeowner's coffee mug before dumping the contents in the sink. This completely disgusting and unprofessional behavior is unbecoming of any business professional, let alone somebody running for political office. Assuming that Bance is still the Conservative candidate, I think any rational person would think twice about electing someone like that into public office. I can't say that I'm shocked that Harper would sign the nomination papers for someone like this.
With that being said, this is now a Liberal-NDP battle with the edge going to the Liberals. This is historical Liberal territory and the redistributed riding helps them out here along with stronger polling numbers in Ontario.
15 09 01 Jason
Gary Anandasangaree seems to have a stronger ground game than KM Shantikumar. Both candidates come from a Tamil background, though Anandasangaree is more popular in the Tamil community. It should be noted that Trudeau has visited this riding and partaken in a Tamil festival.
Can't see how the Liberals will lose this one. Even during their disastrous 2011 campaign, they would have taken redistributed riding.
The Tories are a non factor here. They will drop below 25%.
15 08 29 My business
Its a tight riding and the conservatives have a lot more money to spend than the other two parties. I see this one going conservative.
15 08 26 rjk
I lived in this riding from 2002-2010 and it is indeed a mixed bag of 'old Bill Davis Ontario', newcomers to Canada and first time homer buyers (that was me amongst others). There are some suburban-minded individuals with no work/life connection to downtown Toronto while others face huge commuting challenges which are in itself a divisor of local castes. Adding to the generally wealthy old-true-and-blue Ontario vote was the super small-c Ford supporters (mostly pining for a subway) in the second last municipal race to put the Tory party in contention. This area also had until very recently slightly affordable real estate in the 416 area code - i.e. first buyers, but other factors apply. The nearby UTSC campus and recent nearby successes of other parties (Gilchrist @ Mike Harris, Dr. Bob @ Rae) makes this riding probably one of the most truly open matches for election. It's truly a strange riding that could be won marginally due money and campaign resources spent on a marginal seat. I openly encourage everyone here to vote; but I wouldn't want to be a candidate here and my hats off to all who have chosen to do so.
15 08 16 Swellow
The NDP has the potential to sweep every scarborough riding except Agincourt. I think the candidate here is another one who can make inroads with the community and win it.
15 08 07 R.O.
This is a new riding and a tough one to get a feel for . and based on 2011 numbers would have been a true 3 way race. A Scarborough riding like this is too close to call until more of the campaign has happened . scarborough had been entirely liberal federally from 1993 until 2011 I believe but all 3 parties have some potential here
15 07 31 Woodworth
Rathika Sitsabaiesan helped open the NDP choice to Tamils, who make up a good portion of this riding. This will go NDP.
15 07 05 A.S.
The redraw of Scarborough is definitely something to make a psephologist giddy: 5 out of 6 ridings (excluding Agincourt) show a notional winner's figure within a point of 35%! And here we're dealing with an open seat--*could* be an heir to Chisu's or Rathika's, yet both opted elsewhere; and no wonder, as it's notionally Liberal, largely due to Dan McTeague having his strongest P-SE polls here. Oddly, it's also inherited a stronger NDP part of SRR than where Rathika's presently running--counteracted, however, by McTeague and MacKay hogging the non-CPC energy in their respective riding bits. And with Ellesmere serving as a sort of 'ethnoburban vs white quasi-exurban' dividing line, Con strength tends t/w the south (and it was the best zone for Reform in the 416 in 1993). *Where* we are headed with this spot-condition-affected mash-up in place is anyone's guess, though Justinmania definitely made it look like a clear big-tent Liberal 'hold' in the making not long ago--anyway, it's interesting that the thus-far-nominated Grit and Dipper candidates reflect the 'ethnourban north', and depending on who else runs, who knows how that'll affect voting patterns along the Highland Creek Village/West Rouge axis--stay tuned...
15 07 02 Wilf Day
Kantharatnam Shanthikumar 'has been a pastor at Tamil churches since 1995.
His deep passion for cricket was passed on to the next generation when he opened his cricket academy in Canada. Many national players in Canada were groomed by his academy.' A man of many talents.
15 06 29 Gillian
The NDP have a great candidate in Rev. Shanthikumar. The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) compiled the seat projections using a blended, weighted sample using Ipsos, Angus Reid, and Ekos polls conducted between May 27 and June 23. They are predicting this riding will easily go NDP.
15 04 09 Fairview Resident
The 2011 redistributed result shows a 3-way race with the Liberals on top. Now that the Liberals have closed a 20-point gap in Ontario, the Tories and NDP will have their hands full trying to reelect their Scarborough incumbents. I can't see them making a play for an open seat that now heavily favours the Liberals.
15 03 28 monkey
Interestingly enough the re-distribution puts the Tories in contention, but I highly doubt they will win this. Rita is reasonably popular amongst the Tamil community and the strong NDP support did translate provincially so the NDP could hold this but most likely it will swing back to the Liberals albeit not with the massive margins they got a decade ago.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
New riding that is an easy Liberal win. No wonder the incumbent member is going for the other part of her riding.
15 03 24 JC
This is a notional liberal riding, see why Rathika Sitsabaiesan didn't want to run here. Gary Anandasangaree should win this easily.
15 03 24 Philly D.
This seat is already notionally Liberal by 1300 votes.

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