Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Scarborough Southwest

Prediction Changed
2015-09-12 20:08:35

Constituency Profile


Blair, Bill

Harris, Dan

Nallaratnam, Roshan

Taylor, Tommy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 200.05%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Scarborough Southwest
   (177/190 polls, 93.49% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dan Harris

   (13/190 polls, 6.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McKay


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15 10 07 Glen C.
I'm surprised you called this for the Liberals. I have no horse in this race (I vote Green but am realistic about their chances, also this is my parents' and sister's riding but I moved downtown last year), but at least in our/their neighbourhood it is predominantly NDP support for reelection. Liberals are #2 but not very close and PCs are WAY behind. Yard signs, same deal. Will wait and see! I guess it is not the NDP slam dunk we assumed!
15 10 05 R.O.
The mainstreet poll 40 lib/37 ndp indicates even with Bill Blair being a star candidate this riding is still a very close race. and that ndp support although down in ontario appears to be holding in this riding at least it was when they polled the riding. Current mp Dan Harris appears to have a stronger following in this riding than maybe some expected. But this is not historically an ndp riding so its going to be interesting to see what happens here
15 10 04 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/9/29) Lib 40%, NDP 37%, Con 21%. Green 3%.
15 09 24 Terry
People here seem to like Dan Harris a lot. Bill Blair is also well liked and will make it close but I'm seeing way more signs and support for Harris who has the added bonus of being the guy already in the seat who hasn't seem to have done anything to make people want him out. Generally positive feelings for Harris.
15 09 13 R.O.
With around a month to go still uncertain about the race in Scarborough Southwest. There was a mainstreet research poll for Toronto and it had liberals 47 % in scarborough to ndp 26 and cpc 25 , but that poll is for all 6 ridings not just this riding. The conservatives have also found a new candidate since last post Roshan Nallaratnam who also has a background in law enforcement. Harper also campaigned in the riding which was surprising considering it hasn't been conservative in a long time. Incumbent mp Dan Harris is still a strong candidate for the ndp in this riding considering its liberal history. However he is up against a high profile liberal candidate as everyone in Toronto is familiar with former police chief Bill Blair. With a month to go it be interesting to see how this one plays out
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
This riding was leaning NDP a few weeks ago, now it is narrowly leaning Liberal. (September 1)
In other words, TCTC. Like many ridings in a close 3-way election like this, it may be difficult to project a winner until October.
What's interesting in this riding is that the Conservatives have taken a long time to nominate a candidate and get their campaign going, and so most of the focus has been on the Liberal vs. NDP race.
The question is, if the Conservatives have a weak campaign here, who could it help? Possibly Bill Blair, if enough conservatives decide to pick him instead of voting CPC.
15 08 30 CGD
Bill Blair will win this one. Dan Harris is a good example of the weakness of the NDP caucus that was elected in the 2011 orange wave. He's up against someone with good profile and let's face an overall better resume.
15 08 17 jeff316
Blair in a cakewalk, even if the Liberals don't succeed nationally. Dan's a nice guy but everyone in the riding and the party understands that he was a result (or victim) of circumstance.
15 08 03 R.O.
What appeared to be an easy victory for Bill Blair and the liberals here a few months back now seems to be in doubt ever since ndp gained momentum. It could be a lot harder now to try and beat an ndp incumbent than it would have been earlier this year. That being said this riding has been historically liberal but was a true 3 way race in 2011 and not many ridings are . so its rather hard to get a feel for until campaign starts to play itself out here.
15 07 16 Arushana
With the recent polls coming out indicating that the NDP is leading, all thanks to the Alberta Provincial Election, there is no doubt in mind that Dan Harris will be my local MP for the next four years. As someone that previously worked with him, Dan Harris is the type of guy that I want as a MP. Someone such as myself who is a daughter of both immigrants parents and female minority, Dan Harris and the NDP have fought so hard to protect my rights especially fighting to repeal Billl C-51, C-24 and also fighting to end the carding situation. Dan Harris is also well known in the Tamil community and actually Tamil community have supported Jack Layton previously and will now support Thomas Mulcair and the NDP. I rather have an MP like Dan Harris that will protect my rights, then an MP that will take my rights away, which was one of the reasons why my parents immigranted to Canada from Sri Lanka. They came here to have a better life and to ensure their rights are being protected and also for there daughters as well, but if a Liberal or Conservative government wins this election, it is will be tragic, so it is clear that the NDP is the best way to go.
15 07 16 Ken
Dan Harris has run to represent the people of Scarborough Southwest in House of Commons four times; this will be his fifth. A decade and a half ago, the first time he ran, he received 10% of the vote. When he won in 2011, he received 35% of the vote. That's an increase of nearly 25% before he even had a chance to do the top-notch constituency work for which New Democrat MPs are known. With all of the baggage that Bill Blair brings (e.g. the largest mass arrests in Canadian history during the 2010 G20 Summit in Toronto including excessive use of force, and illegal arrests and detentions by Toronto police; full support for the racist practice of carding when he was the top cop and had both the opportunity and means to make real change) and the incumbent's record of hard work and strong ties to the community he represents, I wouldn't be surprised if Harris wins with the same if not a higher percentage of the vote.
New Democratic
15 07 14
I've seen quite a strong NDP showing on the ground, and have been canvassed (is that the correct word?) twice already. Dan Harris seems like a likeable guy, and his suggestion to make Remembrance Day a federal holiday sounds like a good idea. I also liked his ideas on resource development, which put a lot of emphasis upon environmental impact and sustainable development. Plus he voted against C-51, so it's hard to find much fault.
15 07 09 Marco Ricci
I'm not sure why every high-profile candidate causes people to speculate that they will be a future leader. People need to stop & think about a candidate's overall profile before claiming they will be a future leader.
Blair is already in his 60's, and on top of that, unless he is fluent in French, is unlikely to be a future leader. Plus he has no political experience yet. And if the Liberals don't do well this year, he might not even be elected anyway. So this discussion involving Blair is premature to say the least.
As for the race in question, as with dozens of others across the country, it can't really be predicted at this stage in the year. That's why many of the people making NDP, Liberal, etc. predictions in this riding and so many others are basically just making guesses. Until the actual election officially starts, we won't know what is going to happen here.
15 06 30 Chris
No question with the polls the way there are this is a sure NDP win. Harris looks to have a strong campaign already in place with people on the streets and a campaign office already up and running on Kingston Rd in Cliffside.
Blair on the other had doesn't seem to be anywhere and with the infighting with the local liberals being a not so well kept secret things look pretty bleak for this so called star candidate.
15 06 27 A.S.
I'd also agree that the Harris-Stoffer comparison is a bit much--for one thing, Dan Harris is more of a party-line politician than a maverick powerhouse; any disarmingly fresh approach on his part is probably more akin to the Quebec/Alberta newbies than anything. And also, while under-radar, against an Orange Crush backdrop his election wasn't as flukey as it appeared; SSW has had a long history of real or latent/suppressed 3-way compatibility, and it's also where provincial NDP leader Stephen Lewis held power in the 1970s--heck, even Dan Harris's previous runs at the seat should've indicated the 'potential' here. In the end, the under-radarness of his being elected in 2011 could well foretell Harris's sleeper ability to withstand Bill Blair--and much like the Stoffer comparisons, let's not jump the gun on Blair as a federal leadership candidate in the making, either; the G20 and carding controversies continue to haunt him, and it's only the increasingly stale-dated optics of his withstanding the Fords that make him look like any sort of 'charismatic figurehead'. IOW there's enough quicksand under *Blair's* pedestal to upset a so-called sure thing...
15 06 14 seasaw
Bill Blair was just nominated as the Liberal candidate. Though Harris has had a pretty good record, it won't be enough to overcome the strength of Bill Blair. Not only is Blair well known and popular, he like Adam Vaughn is leadership material. If the Liberals don't get elected this time around, I don't think they'll keep Justin, Blair will be a perfect replacement.
15 06 03 Marco Ricci
Gillian, you seem to have made NDP predictions in every riding from one coast to the other. It's important to be objective with our predictions if we want to call these ridings accurately. Dan Harris is not 'the Ontario version of Peter Stoffer'. He is only a one-term MP and doesn't yet have Stoffer's level of recognition or popularity.
I'm also not sure if the Tamil community will vote NDP - they historically vote Liberal, and Justin Trudeau has rebuilt some of the ground with Tamil voters that was lost under previous Liberal leaders.
Also, where is the evidence that Conservatives will vote for Dan Harris to stop the Liberals? How do we know that? The current Forum poll for this riding gives Bill Blair the lead over Dan Harris. That may change now that the NDP is getting a post-Alberta election bump, but it's too soon to know what will happen here until the Fall.
15 05 16 Gillian
Dan Harris is the Ontario version of Peter Stoffer. He is a popular and well-liked MP. He works tirelessly for our Veterans and Soldiers. The local Tamil community, which has a sizeable population in the ridings, has organized behind him. Conservative voters will switch to voting for Dan Harris in order to stop the Liberals. This will be a two-way race with NDP MP Dan Harris winning re-election.
15 05 02 Marco Ricci
UPDATE: CTV journalist Tim Weber has withdrawn from the Liberal race and joined Bill Blair's team.
Btw, as I pointed out on the Vaughan-Woodbridge page, Julian Fantino is not actually confirmed as a candidate for 2015 yet.
15 04 29 Stevo
It will be interesting to see Julian Fantino and Bill Blair - two consecutive Toronto police chiefs - in the House of Commons together on opposite sides. Blair should take this back for the Liberals in a walk.
15 04 26 Jason
Bill Blair has finally announced he will seek the nomination of Scarborough Southwest. Blair lives in the riding, so there would not be the issue of him being a parachuted or imposed candidate. The Liberals also several other candidates vying for nomination including former CTV news anchor Tim Weber and businessman Shamsul Islam who is backed by Rae and Smitherman.
At the moment, I could see it go something like: Bill Blair - 41% Dan Harris - 35% Conservative - 20% Other - 4%.
15 04 26 ME
The entry of Chief Blair running for the Liberals tips this riding to the Liberals
15 04 26 Marco Ricci
The press is reporting tonight that outgoing Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair will announce tomorrow that he is running for the Liberals in Scarborough Southwest.
A Forum poll done in February gave Bill Blair a 10-point lead over NDP MP Dan Harris.
There are several other candidates running for the Liberal nomination, so we will have to wait & see how this all plays out.
15 04 25 Docere
Bill Blair is running for the Liberal nomination in SSW. Dan Harris got lucky in 2011 and is the NDP MP least likely to hang on. This should go back to the Liberals, whether Blair is the candidate or not.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
It's hard to make an accurate prediction here when neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have nominated a candidate yet.
NDP MP Dan Harris is vulnerable if the NDP does not retain the vote share it got during the Layton Wave. Harris is also one of the NDP MP's with one of the largest expenses in the satellite offices controversy. Hard to know whether it will have an impact, so we'll have to monitor that over the year.
This is the only Scarborough riding where the Liberals haven't picked a candidate yet. There are 8 people running according to Pundit's Guide, but it's possible the Liberals are holding this seat open for a star candidate. That could pay off, or it could cause division among Liberal supporters of the other candidates already in this race.
15 03 29 Jason
Dan Harris is a strong consistency MP. But I would argue that he is the most vulnerable NDP incumbent in Toronto.
Scarborough Southwest has a sizeable NDP base, but the anti-NDP vote is much stronger. Many people who voted Conservative in 2011, will likely return to the Liberal fold this year. This will be especially true if Bill Blair runs for the Liberals.
Still I would give it TCTC for now until more information on the Liberal plans.
15 03 28 monkey
While not 100% sure on this, it wouldn't take too much to swing this back to the Liberals so unless they implode badly they should win this one although the NDP and Tories should have a decent showing.
15 03 23 ML
In 2011 this one of the few three-way races in the GTA and could very well be again in 2015. The big wild card is whether or not Toronto police chief Bill Blair runs, which The Toronto Star has reported is a possibility. In that event the Liberals would be the heavy favourites. Barring Blair's candidacy, it could be an open race.

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