Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Spadina-Fort York

Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 15:34:21

Constituency Profile


Chow, Olivia

Danley, Sharon

Lin, Nick

Nicula, Michael

Vaughan, Adam

Zuniga, Sabrina

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3500.95%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (164/182 polls, 93.15% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Adam Vaughan

   Toronto Centre
   (18/182 polls, 6.85% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chrystia Freeland


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15 10 18 Jeff S
I think Chow would have been able to defeat a lesser Liberal candidate despite the headwinds. But Vaughn is a quality candidate.
15 10 16 JRW
This will be a great victory for Adam Vaughan. NDP may only win one 416 seat, that being Toronto Danforth. NDP vote is falling nationwide and given her disastrous mayoralty run, none of the circumstances bode well for Ms.Chow. Oh well there's always MPP, councillor, schoolboard, LOL.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
Torontonian, I agree that people should be careful about writing Olivia Chow off. I think she could still give Adam Vaughan a close fight on Election Night.
However, it's important to keep in mind that people are not just basing their predictions on just one site like 308. Other seat projection sites are showing this riding now moving over to the Liberals, and reporter David Akin now seems to be predicting that Chow is in trouble here.
Chow & Vaughan are both giants in Toronto so neither one should be written off, but things may be shifting away from Chow right now.
15 10 11 South Islander
Olivia Chow was a very popular MP. But she quit her seat when the NDP were struggling in a bid for mayor, in which she went from frontrunner to placing third. Her district then picked a very popular city councillor to represent them for a different party. Once the NDP began to surge, she decided to try to take the redrawn seat back and initially looked like a prohibitive favourite. Now that the NDP are tanking, I don't think she will. The math and polls from a few weeks ago show a close race, but Adam Vaughn is looking increasingly like the better bet for government and cabinet MP. The NDP totally took Trinity Spadina and this new riding for granted and they blew it.
15 10 11 Torontonian
Wow, EPP just called this for the Libs?!
There is danger in following 308.com's predictions, which take provincial trends and then try to apply them locally. And even they only have the Libs at a 50% shot here. They also currently have Parkdale at 67% Lib, and that will go orange by 5-10,000.
There is a clear variation in support for 905 vs 416 ridings, and the NDP will do much better in the 416 than in Ontario generally.
Olivia Chow will come through here.
15 10 11 DSR
The riding polls in SFY have suggested a steady decline in NDP fortunes. The last was taken more than a week ago during which time the Liberals have gained further ground against the NDP in Ont. Furthermore, a NDP operative admitted to the press last week that they were facing tough fights in both Parkdale-High Park and Davenport from which we can reasonably extrapolate that SFY is TCTC at best.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
Lets not forget that the NDP, while doing poorly in Ontario, is still doing well in Toronto. In fact, poll breakdowns show them beating the Tories in the city, on average. Beyond that, the Liberals are actually doing better in the 905 than in the 416. Add to that riding polls that clearly favour an NDP win here, and it becomes a near lock.
15 10 09 Stevo
Olivia might as well start fishing around for a provincial seat in which to run in 2018. The NDP has collapsed in Ontario. Adam Vaughan will win and I don't even think it will be that close.
15 10 04 prognosticator15
I will go against a predominant opinion and call this riding Liberal. many things below are correct: Chow is seen as too extreme and distant by more moderate voters (not least for her mayoral campaign), has selected wrong issues to emphasize (opposition to C-51, although useful for NDP as a hammer against both other major parties, is hardly a centre of attention in this campaign for voters outside some of the intellectual circles), and is often seen as opportunistic job-seeker. Adam Vaughan reflects centre-left leanings of the well-to-do riding and is better able to personally connect with voters. I would add that with Cons being distant third here and few chances, many of them will support a locally popular Liberal, even with history of spending-happy attitudes. It is counterintuitive in ridings outside big city downtowns, but here in particular, with Chow's electoral history, a substantial portion of the vote is anti-NDP. Overall electoral rise of Liberals in Ontario at the expense of NDP, although more moderate than often presented, is reflected best in Toronto area, but in particular, in downtown ridings where Liberals and NDP compete for the first place.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
With the NDP falling into 3rd place in Ontario and 3rd place Nationally, and no longer looking likely to form a Government, Chow's advantage over Vaughan is shrinking.
She cannot be written off yet, but this race will now be tighter than she expected when she returned during the NDP surge earlier in the Summer.
15 10 02 South Islander
@DSR, that poll was for University Rosedale. Last poll here was Sept 14 and had Chow ahead 45/39. If Chow was truly only ahead by about 6 points two weeks ago when the NDP were still ahead nationally and only down by about 6 in Ontario, I'd say the Libera
15 10 04 DSR
Apologies re my previous post where I gave the recent Forum Research poll results for University-Rosedale by mistake. The figures for this riding were NDP 42%, Lib 37%, Con 17%, Green 5%.
15 10 02 DSR
Forum Research poll (15/9/30) NDP 39%, Lib 38%, Con 20%, Green 3%
15 09 22 DarkFlare
I definitely have to disagree with the correlation between the mayoral race and a federal MP seat. It of course plays a part in it being so fresh in our minds, but i don't see it being the deciding factor.
First, unlike myself a majority of voters vote based on the party and the party leader. So federal candidates can hide behind their party stripes to a degree and being downtown where spadina always saw NDP supporters in droves, it helps chow.
Second, Chow isn't running to be leader of anything. She's not solely in the spotlight like in the mayor race. A few missteps and doubt from the opponents on if she can win, wont be as detrimental. Especially with the conservatives not being a factor. Tory came out as the anybody but Ford candidate and a lot of Chow supporters jumped ship because Tory was the one that could win. (unless we get a ranked ballot system, we get this strategic voting to avoid the vote split)
Third she knows how to win in this riding as an mp. She knows the area and knows the people. The mayor race was true untested waters for her and a mismanaged campaign cost her. Expect her to go back to basics with her A game on this one.
It'll be a hard fought battle with the liberal incumbent for sure and will definitely be tight but i foresee a return of NDP orange.
15 09 20 Resident of Spadina-Fort York
In last year's municipal campaign Olivia Chow lost Ward 20 to John Tory. John Tory got more votes than did Olivia Chow in her own ward (the ward she represented municipally). I would argue/conclude that the voters who knew her best were unenthusiastic about voting for her. While it is true that the new riding of Spadina-Fort York is more than just part of Ward 20 but the results a year ago tell us a lot about Olivia's strength. I predict that the long campaign will hurt Olivia a lot, just as the long mayoral campaign hurt Olivia. The idea of Olivia excites some people but the longer they have to listen to her and think about what kind of a politician she is the more she loses support. I believe that she cannot sustain enthusiasm for her candidacy for a campaign as long as this. Olivia will not be returning to parliament this year.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to a new Mainstreet riding poll posted by David Akin today, this race is still close. The NDP has a lead, but it's not a big one:
Mainstreet | SPADINA?FORT YORK Decided voters | #NDP 45% | #LPC 39% | #CPC 13% | #GPC 3% | IVR n=671 Sep 14
15 09 18 FMa
Ms Chow started out with a predictive lead but squandered it. Mr Vaughan has the condo developers and many of the owners for him and he is gradually pulling even with Ms Chow -- the widow of the former party leadership. Her party will only take the riding if it adapts its strategy to the high rise phone-less (cells only) world. Also nobody cares about so-called wedge issue: Bill C51. It's cost of living, quality of life and whether or not people's taxes are going up. This riding is in the forefront of consumer rather than citizen voting. It votes the same way it uses its credit cards, not for what is best for Canada but what is best for us as individuals and this will continue to threaten Chow.
15 09 15 George Roberts
I agree that if the election were held today, the NDP would likely win, but I don't think it would be a huge victory like 2011 and I wouldn't be calling this seat yet. The 2011 results simply don't translate to this election given the sitting Liberal member and the rise in Liberal support from 2011 in Ontario (likewise the by-election results don't translate either, now that we're in a general election with Chow vs. Vaughan). A few considerations:
- Chow certainly has profile and a strong base but she is not a shoo-in. She has lost elections in this area previously and the strong NDP centres in the old riding have been lopped off. While the old riding was one of the few she won in the mayoral campaign in 2014, she won with only about 45% of the vote and the closer to the Lake, the less popular she was (i.e. the Tory/Ford vote outnumbered Chow by some margin).
- Vaughan had profile when he was a broadcaster; I'm not sure he has it now. He's been pretty quiet as a MP. Still, the riding has been strongly Liberal in provincial elections, and the NDP lost the riding in the 2014 provincial election (yes, of course, provincial elections aren't federal elections, but the point is that this is not a NDP guaranteed riding).
- Both NDP and Liberal candidates are campaigning like they know it's close - I've seen both of them out in the riding far more than candidates in previous elections. I walk various routes to and from work and they're about equal in signs displayed on homes on side streets, but I'd say the further north you go the more NDP signs, and further south, more Liberals (which isn't good news for the NDP)
- the riding has historically gone back and forth between the NDP and Liberals and provincial/national trends influence the campaign regardless of the candidates (remember: Chow lost twice when she ran as a city councillor). So if the Liberals keep rising in Ontario, Chow's profile may well not save her (and conversely, if the Liberals fall, the NDP will win).
15 09 09 Brian L
As always, this riding attracts a lot of attention.
The polling for the NDP has been falling in Ontario and Toronto in favour of the Liberals for better than three weeks now and, for the first time, the 308 prediction for this riding is for Vaughan to take the riding over Chow.
One also has to remember that the predictive analysis for the riding is based on the numbers in the last election and don't take into consideration the numbers from the by-election. Vaughan has an advantage in that he is now the incumbent and Chow has a couple knocks against when people consider the fact that she doesn't really know what she wants to do. She runs for federal office only to pine for municipal office. She loses municipal office race only to become a professor and professes that she likes her new job only to decide once again to run for the federal office she vacated not e\ven two years ago.
It is still 'Too Close' but I think that the winds favour Vaughan over Chow.
15 09 08 Brian L
I still don't think that Chow is a shoo-in for this riding like a lot of other people.
1. Polling since the election has begun has shown that the NDP share of the vote has been on a consistent decline in Ontario while the Liberal share of the vote has been consistently increasing.
2. People are just mad that Chow cannot make up her mind what she wants to do and many may just make the decision for her.
3. While she would be a shoo-in as a Cabinet minister, such an appointment would be a disaster. As someone who has been in politics all of her life, she has never run anything. I don't think that she understands the concept of 'practicality' when it comes to some of her ideas.
4. While Adam Vaughan was able to use the good name of his father, Colin, as a stepping stone to City Council in Toronto, he has made a name for himself while a City Councillor and then as MP and his name recognition is about the same as Chow's although I think that his favourability/unfavourability plus/minus spread is much higher than that of Chow.
15 09 05 recovering political junkie
Bill C-51 is gonna be a big factor with young condo dwellers. Adams profile best known as the son of lengendary torontonian Colin Vaughan, and media personality won't be as helpful as it would be in the old Trinity Spadina. NDPs biggest weakness is that condo dwellers are 905ers. So new condo units, will go heavy Liberal. Older condos where Olivia has attended all their functions, and shook their hands over the years will go slightly in favour for Olivia. 2 very strong campaigners. 2 very dedicated volunteers.
dont listen to local polls. The door knockers will know a week prior who is gonna be the likely winner.
But I am going with NDP because C-51 is the wedge.
15 09 04 Tony Ducey
Unfortunate for Vaughan as he's a good candidate but Chow will win this. Another probable minister in a mulcair cabinet.
15 09 02 OgtheDim
Its funny how you can go back down the posts on here and see exactly when the certainty for Vaughn went off the rails - C51 time. And he knows it. The big question is whether people will be talking about C51 nearer the election time Cause they are certainly not yet. That bill, as horrendous as it may be to some people, just is not what people are talking about.
I think this riding is way more liable to national trends then people realise - certainly more then a riding that takes itself really really seriously wants to think.
Yes, this is the epicentre of serious left of centre political debate in a town which thinks it is the epicentre of left of centre politics in this country. And yes, there are two photogenic and well liked and respected (at least by non-partisans) candidates. And, yes the two camps absolutely loathe each other, going back to the days when Vaughn ignored the local NDP by running for council without their approval so there is a lot of local fervour about each other.
But, I still think this result is going to come down to the 10-20% of people who will vote based on national trends. And that means, like it or not, that this riding will be won by either Mulcair or Trudeau, not Chow or Vaughn. That may seriously bug the hardcore politicos in those two camps but the reality is they are so close (sorry I don't trust riding polls two months out and the #'s polled were really low) the margin will be who is winning the overall horse race.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
The riding poll earlier in August showing Chow ahead of Vaughan is a warning sign for Vaughan that Chow will be more competitive than Joe Cressy was last year. The C-51 issue may also be helpful to the NDP here, whereas it is less of an issue in other parts of the province.
However, yesterday's new Abacus poll shows the NDP falling into 3rd place in Ontario with a 6-point drop in the province, with Liberal support rising by 4 points.
Abacus Ontario numbers: LPC 34, CPC 33, NDP 26
Without specific local data, there is no way to know how the NDP Ontario drop effects this particular riding. Chow may still have the edge here, but that edge may have shrunk since last month.
15 08 29 MGK
(1) The anonymous commenter from 15-08-23 ignores the fact that Olivia Chow carried this area overwhelmingly in 2011. (S)he is correct that it does not have the same NDP base as the Annex, now in UniRose. But she was always personally very strong in Chinatown, and worked hard to narrow the gap (and eventually win) the lakeshore condos. No other candidate could beat Vaughan (unlike UniRose, where NDP strength really doesn't depend on the candidate) but I think Chow can.
(2) CGD projects based on the 2014 by-election, ignoring two crucial differences:
(a) In the by-election Vaughan defeated a largely unknown first-time candidate. Much of his support came from traditional NDP voters (I know because I was canvassing) who were attracted to the candidate. The same people may still like him, but also like Olivia Chow (for many of the same reasons).
(b) The NDP was hurt in the by-election by confusion with the provincial election campaign at the same time (again, I witnessed this canvassing). A lot of New Democrats in Toronto were upset with Andrea Horwath, and warming to Kathleen Wynne, and I think there was some spillover to the federal race. That's not going to happen this fall, when it's the federal leaders in the news every day.
15 08 29 Mark
Anger at Chow is boiling over. The upcoming c51 ad is not resonating. Word is that people are not even letting her into their apartment buildings to canvass! When you have to call the super to get into the building, you're toast.
15 08 29 Jj
Chow has found her issue: C-51. It plays well in an affluent urban riding like this one, where pocket book politics are less front of mind. She will use it to hammer Vaughan. This will be an NDP landslide.
15 08 28 Brian Lonsdale
1. The Forum poll on the riding showing Chow leading was discounted by Forum itself because of the small sample size and the demographics of the sample size.
2. Olivia Chow is beyond her 'Best Before Date.'
3. Olivia Chow can't make up her mind what office she wants to hold - mayor, councillor, MP. She doesn't even know whether she wants to retire or not. I haven't seen so much indecision in my life.
4. I think that Adam Vaughan has the edge in the riding if for no other reason than he fits and understands the demographics of the riding more than Chow does.
15 08 24 CGD
It will take a miracle for Chow to pull this one off. Adam Vaughan won 3,000 more votes then the 2011 candidate had when he took Trinity-Spadina in a by-election. An increase of 3,000 votes when 50% fewer votes were cast is impressive. Despite what a riding poll (of questionable accuracy) says this one is going Liberal unless we're in for a landslide NDP win nationally. So far the NDP numbers in Ontario are nowhere near that. This is a fairly easy call for Adam Vaughan & the LPC.
15 08 23
The NDP strength in TrinitySpadina was The Annex area. This is not part of the Trinity Fort York. Olivia lost in 2004 because of the fledging condo vote. But condo people are young, and the NDP has made in roads into young people. This is such a dunno? Because I a guessing Adam did real well for the Annex vote. Maybe he isn't doing as well in the new Condo crowd who don't know who his father was?
15 08 18 Atlantic Election Guy
Forum polling just released a poll specific to Spadina-Fork York that shows Olivia Chow with 58% support compared with 28% for Adam Vaughan. With her electoral history and good will in this riding, along with the current NDP numbers overall, I'm guessing an NDP win here.
15 08 18 Pulsetaker
Forum Research released a poll today in Spadina-Fort York that gives Olivia Chow a MASSIVE 29 point lead (57 to 28). Of course anything can happen but for now she has to be considered a very heavy favorite.
15 08 18 Jeff S
Forum poll shows Chow with big lead. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-half-her-vote/
15 08 16 Marco Ricci
Both NDP & Liberal supporters need to keep in mind that we are 2 months away from the actual election so it's hard to predict ridings like this in the middle of the Summer. The NDP has decent numbers in Ontario, but the Liberals have also gone up from their score in 2011. The Ipsos poll has the Liberals ahead of the NDP in Ontario, as does the Nanos poll. EKOS has better numbers for the NDP. This weekend's new Leger poll shows the Libs, NDP & Cons tied in Ontario.
It is actually the Conservatives who have lost the most ground since 2011, so where the Conservative vote goes could influence a close race.
Then there are the candidates themselves. Chow won by a large margin in 2011, but she was facing a weaker candidate in Christine Innes. Vaughan is a bigger name and may give Chow a closer race. Plus, Chow has taken some hits to her reputation since 2011. She lost the Mayoralty of Toronto and is being criticized by the press as an opportunist for running for office again so soon.
Since this is one of the high-profile races, it's possible that the pollsters might start giving us some individual riding polls for Spadina-Fort York the way they have for Eglinton-Lawrence in the race involving the Finance Minister. That might give us some more clues.
15 08 15 Annex Resident
It is difficult to see how this one will go. Both Vaughn and Chow are well-liked, well-known, and progressive candidates. I see a slight advantage for Chow as she has represented the area for a longer period of time and remains an outspoken advocate for urban issues. However, if the condo crowd gets over Bill C51 and votes at a greater rate than other residents in the riding, Vaughn might be able to pull it off. Slight advantage to the NDP at this point but may become TCTC or Liberal if Trudeau's numbers increase well past Mulcair's in Ontario.
15 08 13 Pulsetaker
FYI, Forum research today says that the NDP leads in Ontario and their post-debate poll in the GTA had the NDP leading the Liberals across the City of Toronto 37% to 32%...in other words the NDP is doing significantly better in Ontario and in Toronto right now than it did in the 2011 election. Let me remind everyone that in 2011 the NDP notionally won Spadina-Fort York by a 24% margin in an election where the NDP took 26% across Ontario and the Liberals took 25%. The only way the Liberals can win Spadina Fort York is if they can achieve a significant net swing from NDP to Liberal across Toronto - right now the exact opposite is happening. There is also a HUGE backlash against Vaughan over his support for the draconian Bill C-51. Things could change but if the election were held today - Adam Vaughan lose - by a lot!
15 08 12 Carleton Student
Pulsetaker, use the regional polls, not national ones. The NDP are 3rd in Ontario. I have not seen a 416 poll, which would be even better for determining who will win this. Vaughan hold.
15 08 12 Marco Ricci
Today's new Ipsos poll has the Liberals gaining 3 points nationally and tying the Conservatives in Ontario, with the NDP in 3rd. The Nanos Poll also shows the NDP in 3rd in Ontario.
So, as will be the case in many of the ridings in this province, we will probably have to watch the provincial trends over the next 2 months before making any definite calls.
15 08 08 Pulsetaker
If present national trends continue, Olivia Chow will win - easily. Some people posting her act like everyone is in the bubble of downtown Toronto John Tory/Liberals. This 'inside baseball' stuff is irrelevant to the vast majority of voters - the fact is this is a riding that is largely made up of condos and apartments with almost no established community - most people voting in Spadina Fort York barely even know who Adam Vaughan and Olivia Chow - are - or maybe they know the name Olivia Chow because she ran for mayor. The vast majority will be voting for Tom Mulcair vs. Justin Trudeau and the local candidates will be an afterthought and on top of that a huge number of people will just blindly vote for whichever party they think has the better chance of beating the Conservatives. If by mid-October the NDP is still ahead of the Liberals nationally - Chow is guaranteed to win. If on the other hand the Liberals somehow manage to overtake the NDP, Vaughan will win.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
With polls the way they are right now, it's hard to tell which way this riding will go. The NDP has the poll numbers on their side, but I also can't discount the popularity of Adam Vaughan who has the incumbency advantage. Other posters here are correct in stating that Chow comes across as an opportunist by coming back after losing the mayoral race. This should probably remain TCTC until we start seeing some more movement in the polls.
15 08 08 Jim
I keep hearing about how opportunistic Chow is for running again here. However, she's won every general election since 2006 and I don't know if that same argument would hold true back then. She has worked hard in her former riding and people remember and know her well. In the municipal election she won the vote in this ward of similar boundaries as the old Trinity Spadina riding. Vaughan will be tough to beat but he's disappointingly just been a puppet for the Liberals. Chow has more influence with the NDP than Vaughan does with the Liberals.
15 08 07 jeff316
Chow will lose, and lose big - even if the NDP does well nationally. A sad ending to a great political career of a great woman. People in this riding love Olivia Chow - she worked so hard to become an MP - but even those that love her do not love that's she resigned only to lose the mayoralty and come back. Many of her supporters always felt that Chow never really wanted to run for mayor, but did so at the urging of polls and politicos. It showed poor judgment, which has reared again by her running again for her old job.
15 08 06 Stevo
Adam Vaughan's comments about Chow just shopping around for yet another government job rings very true. Maybe voters are getting tired of this act and will give Chow a more difficult fight than she is bargaining for. I'm not a huge fan of Mr. Vaughan but at least he is likely to contribute greatly to policy (as much as a 3rd-party backbencher can do so), compared to Chow who will attend committee meetings, make a few politically correct comments on this or that issue, and not much else. Mind you, if Mulcair's recent near-40% standing in the polls is real, Vaughan is toast and Chow can sleepwalk through the campaign (which should come naturally to her).
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
The NDP should not be a given here just because Olivia Chow is the candidate. I know many people in this riding who are not pleased that she is running again and think that this is a highly opportunistic move on Chow's part after being trounced in the municipal election. Adam Vaughan is still incredibly popular and will give Chow a run for her money. TCTC at this point.
15 08 04 Dr. Bear
I am not so sure it is a sho-in for Chow. This riding is more of the condo-core of Toronto than the old Trinity-Spadina. While Olivia has a fantastic chance at winning, Adam Vaughan has as much recognition and appeal as she does.
As an aside, it seems to me that Chow and Vaughan have a lot of respect for one another, if not actually liking one another. Often when a candidate of Chow's caliber enters a race, there is a fair amount of mud slinging. Rather, I found the two were quite cordial to one another and slung mud at the parties, not the individual candidate. Rather refreshing.
15 08 03 Justin
Olivia Chow is a star candidate and the polling numbers suggests she'll take it back. Adam Vaughan voted for C-51 which is a big mistake in this heavily educated riding.
15 08 03 Josh
I think this is too close to call yet, and will come down to the national numbers -- which opposition party is the best choice to remove Harper.
I'm not sure where the previous submitter is getting his facts about NDP fundraising, though - their numbers are up, and they will pour money into this seat to get Olivia Chow back to Ottawa. Will it be enough? Time will tell.
15 08 02 PHYSASTR Master
Polling trends (from 308) since Vaughan's by-election win have the NDP leading by almost 14% in this riding (78% certainty). These trends assume Vaughan against the 'average' New Democrat. Even with those trends, given Vaughan's popularity, I can see him hanging on against those trends without Chow in the race. So without Chow this is maybe TCTC.
However, there is no way Chow will lose the nomination, and she won Trinity-Spadina with 55% last election. This riding is 93% the old Trinity-Spadina, so there is no real resource loss for her. Clearly she is not a 'normal' New Democrat. A Vaughan win against Chow would make no sense at this point. Unless Trudeaumania relapses, Chow wins handily.
15 08 01 PY
Talk about poor timing...the morning that Olivia Chow was to declare her intention to run as the NDP candidate, the Blue Jays announced the acquisition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki hours before (with prized pitcher David Price set to join him soon), so it was his name that led the day's headlines.
But seriously, she has the baggage of having lost the mayoralty to John Tory and now finds herself without access to huge swaths of her base, as areas such as Kensington Market, the St. George campus of the U of T and the Annex are now part of the new University--Rosedale riding. Where will she be able to compensate?
Now, both she and Adam Vaughan are vulnerable should their respective leaders falter during the campaign. However, while the latter still has a measure of personal popularity, Chow's has taken quite a hit.
She will need to be financially creative with her campaign this time around as the NDP has struggled mightily with its fundraising and may need to pull resources from other ridings (St. Paul's certainly comes to mind, for one) in order for her to remain competitive.
All in all, I can only see three scenarios and unfortunately, there's no in-between here: Chow manages to squeak by Vaughan, Vaughan ekes out a victory over Chow, or Vaughan wins in a cake-walk. Odds are it'll be either of the last two.
15 08 01 Marco Ricci
Olivia Chow has the potential to win here if the NDP numbers remain high into the Fall. She is no doubt returning because she feels she has a good shot at it with the recent NDP surge.
However, it's important to keep in mind that Vaughan is a strong candidate, too, and Chow is getting a lot of criticism in the Toronto newspapers & political cartoons for coming back to politics so soon & leaving her teaching contract at Ryerson halfway through her term. She is being portrayed as opportunistic. Whether or not this label hurts her we will have to see.
15 07 30
I think Adam Vaughn will hang on here. He's still as popular as Chow in this riding, ohh it will be close, but I see him narrowly winning
15 07 30 R.O.
Well I think its possible Olivia Chow could win the riding back I'm not ready to say it's a sure thing yet . as by election and recent provincial race seemed to indicate a shift more towards the liberals in this riding and it seemed to be less of an ndp area as it had been in years past. All the new condo's had maybe shifted the demographics more than people realised . that being said its still possible she wins here as she had done well in this riding and seems to be well liked in this part of Toronto , do think Adam Vaughan will pose more of a challenge than she realises and liberals will still fight to keep this riding I suspect .
15 07 28 seasaw
Olivia Chow just announced that she'll run here, she has to win the nomination first. Even if she wins, Adam Vaughan will kick her butt regardless.
15 07 28 WL
If Olivia Chow is nominated for the NDP, they win this one walking away. Adam will be dragged down by his party and leader's poor performance.
15 07 28 MGK
In an earlier comment I suggested that there was only one candidate who could beat Vaughan, and I predicted Vaughan because I did not expect her to run. Today it is official: I was wrong about her candidacy, and I therefore revise my prediction.
15 07 28 Expat
Nomination news the past few days have made two downtown Toronto ridings now easy to call: Eglinton-Lawrence for the Liberals (without Eve Adams), and this one for the NDP (with Olivia Chow).
Even the previous Liberal predictions on this page readily recognize that Vaughn could not beat Chow if she decided to run again.
15 07 28 Prime Predictor
Chow officially running. She'll have the support of the Chinese community, is well-known, and doesn't have C-51 hampering her left-wing credentials. NDP win.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Tough one. Very left-wing riding, so Vaughan being a left-win Liberal helps him. However, with the polling trends, this should be tough regardless. If Chow decides to run however, she'll win.
15 07 22 Mr. Dave
Media reports have stated that Olivia Chow will announce on Tuesday, July 28th, that she'll be seeking the NDP nomination in Spadina-Fort York.
With the NDP's poll numbers continuing to rise in Ontario while the Liberals keep dropping, Adam Vaughan won't be back in the new Parliament.
15 07 12 #ABC51
The NDP wins here if Chow runs.
Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine as both the NDP and the Liberals are doing okay in Ontario, and this riding has never favoured the NDP when they've not run a powerhouse candidate.
15 07 04 Docere
Time for an update in what looks like Orange Wave 2.0 and perhaps even the permanent displacement of the Liberals by the NDP. Olivia Chow appears set to be running here. Even though her residence and most of her base (Annex area, Chinatown/Kensington) lies north of Dundas, and she actually lobbied to get the condos out of Trinity-Spadina in order to keep the Annex from being shifted to St. Paul's at the boundary commission hearings, this is inside baseball stuff that virtually nobody cares about. With two top tier candidates, it'll depend on the national race. C-51 is very unpopular in the riding and Trudeau's support for C-51 has forced Vaughan to twist himself into a pretzel defending it. The soft NDP types who supported Vaughan in the by-election will leave this TCTC for now, but I think it now leans NDP.
15 07 01 HFoster
I will come back to this riding once the NDP have a candidate nominated. If the candidate is Olivia Chow, this riding should easily return to Team Orange. Otherwise, Adam Vaughan should be able squeak through, being the former Councillor for this riding and being part of the Orange Liberal faction of the party.
15 06 29 RC
It's hard to assess how credible they are, but rumours keep swirling that Chow is thinking of running for the NDP. That would instantly turn this into the highest-profile race in the country. If the NDP and the Liberals' national poll numbers stay as they are, the Dippers have a shot at winning this even without Chow, in my view (I have to think that, fairly or not, Vaughan's 'downtown urban progressive' cred is taking a bit of a hit these days, what with his vote on C-51 and all that). Chow would be an exceptionally strong competitor, though...
15 06 21 A.S.
Funny how, out of the three seats created out of two in the great Downtown Toronto Carve-Up, the seat carrying the highest 2011 NDP share (thanks to the vast bulk of it being Olivia Chow turf, with no Rosedale-like incompatible outside factors getting in the way) also happens to be the one most commonly conceded to the Liberals at this point--what a difference a byelected MP makes. At least, until Bill C-51--and if there's *anyplace' that's going to melodramatically blow up in the Liberals' face, it'll be in an Adam Vaughan-type constituency; indeed, murmurs are that things aren't looking as slam-dunk for Vaughan as they once might have seemed. Hey: in that case, he can always fall uphill and challenge John Tory for the mayoralty in 2018...
15 06 03 ML
Vaughan was an extremely effective and articulate, if somewhat aloof, local city councilor, so it was no surprise when he ran away with the by-election victory last year. Vaughan appeals so well to the sensibilities of the Toronto condo crowd. He speaks in the language of the upper-middle class, high-consumption, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of crowd that supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about labour rights or social justice. Even with current Liberal numbers dipping, this should be a safe seat for the Grits.
15 05 16 seasaw
Not only if Adam Vaughan widely popular, he's party leader material also. The only way he can lose this is if he were dead and even that's not a sure thing.
15 04 23 Docere
Recruiting Adam Vaughan - a solid progressive city councillor and Ford's most high profile critic - was a brilliant move by the Liberals. Lots of 'soft' NDP voters supported him in the by-election and he shouldn't have any trouble hanging on unless the Liberals end up in Iggy territory.
Olivia Chow's base is really in the northern half of Trinity-Spadina, not the part of Trinity-Spadina that was redistributed to Fort York. I don't see her running for MP again so shortly after her resignation as MP and mayoral run. The high NDP vote in Fort York for Jack and Olivia in the 2011 orange wave is very soft.
15 04 05 MGK
When I canvassed in the Trinity-Spadina by-election, I was hearing at the door from former NDP voters who, while still favourably inclined toward the party, liked Vaughan more. He won overwhelmingly in the by-election. How much easier it will be for him in a riding missing the partisan vote in the Annex. The southern parts of the riding voted for Olivia Chow, but doesn't have the NDP roots that the University-Rosedale portion has. On the assumption that the NDP candidate will not be named Olivia Chow (that would make for a tight race) Vaughan should win easily.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Adam Vaughan has the edge here for now based on his by-election win last year and name recognition from his years as city councilor.
Jennifer Hollett announced after the Toronto Centre by-election that she was planning to run in Spadina-Fort York, but then changed her mind and decided to take the NDP nomination in University-Rosedale instead. This could be because Hollett didn't like her chances against Vaughan.
As for Olivia Chow, she recently became a Professor at Ryerson University, so it's unlikely she is coming back to politics this soon.
15 03 31 RD
This could be a toss-up if rumors of Olivia Chow's return come to fruition.
15 03 29 Jason
This was an Olivia Chow hold until she quit. This will be a Adam Vaughan hold until he retires or the NDP win a majority government. Vaughan is popular and he resonates with the demographic of this riding.
15 03 28 monkey
This is my riding so while it looks good for the Liberals there are a couple of barriers. Adam Vaughan won big in the by-election as people vote based on local candidates, but in the general election it will be more parties. While the new high rise condos should definitely favour the Liberals, some could go Tory (although nowhere near enough to even make them competitive in this riding, but any votes the Tories win will be at the expense of the Liberals), while the northern part is still more favourable to the NDP. The one thing is this is a left leaning riding so a lot will depend on what type of platform the Liberals unveil. If they run on a leftish one like Wynne did, they should win this, but if they run on a more centrist one like Chretien did, it will probably go NDP.
15 03 24 ML
This is a safe Liberal seat. Vaughan's left-of-centre urbanism definitely appeals to the upper middle-class condo crowd.
15 03 24 Fairview Resident
The Liberals lost Trinity-Spadina by 31% in 2011, but won it by nearly 20% in the byelection. This huge swing isn't just a byelection anomaly, as riding polls had the NDP holding comfortably until Vaughan became the candidate. His nomination seemed to really shake up the riding. A few weeks before the byelection, the provincial Liberals also beat 24-year NDP incumbent Marchese by over 15% and 9,000 votes. Based on 2011 results, S-FY is 5% more favourable to the Liberals than T-S. More importantly, this isn't Chow (inc) vs Innes during a Liberal collapse, but Vaughan (inc) vs TBD during a Liberal resurgence not only across the country and province, but specifically in this riding.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Vaughan will win this easily. This riding is shifting more to the center with the sky-rising condos and was willing to dump a very popular and condo-friendly NDP MPP in the provincial election. Solid Liberal hold.

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