Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Toronto Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-06 23:30:13

Constituency Profile


Ahmad, Mariam

Biggin, Colin

Di Battista, Julian

Fernandez, Philip

McQuaig, Linda

Morneau, Bill

Stone, Jordan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4861.30%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Toronto Centre
   (192/195 polls, 99.86% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chrystia Freeland

   (3/195 polls, 0.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Adam Vaughan


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15 10 07 Jeff S
As much as it pains me to say it, it looks like the conservative running as a Liberal, C.D. Howe Institute Morneau, will win this. Mulcair's incompetent campaign has cost Linda McQuaig any chance she had.
15 10 04
This is a true Liberal riding (they have held it since 1993) and even with the NDP-favourable redistribution it remains a Liberal riding. The Liberals are polling north of 40% in Ontario with a strong 416 base and I see no reason they wouldn't hold Toronto Centre with these current numbers. Bill Moraneau is a strong candidate while Linda McQuaig is fairly far left wing and will not appeal to moderate voters. Liberals should win by 10%+ and I think its time to call it for them.
15 10 03 South Islander
New poll has Morneau ahead 42/37. The Liberals have wind in their sails nationally and provincially. When the NDP were surging due to C-51 backlash, this was looking like a potential battleground. With the Liberals fighting for the lead or leading in Ontario (depending on the pollster), the NDP will have to fight to hold Davenport, York South-Weston, Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York and maybe even Toronto Danforth. If they do try to retake some of the downtown seats, they have a better shot in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale. Making a play for Toronto Centre simply stretches them too thin when they're on the defensive. Unless Mulcair can stop the hemorrhaging within the next few days (and I don't see that happening), the NDP will have to focus their resources elsewhere.
15 10 04 DSR
Forum Research poll (15/10/01) Lib 42%, NDP 37%, Con 17%, Green 4%.
15 09 26 Full Name
I continue to believe that the NDP peaked too soon and that Harper's Conservatives have hit a cieling and have only one direction to go: down. In Toronto Centre, whilst NDP's Linda McQuaig is a 'star' candidate, the Liberal's Bill Morneau appears to be out campaigning her. My jogs through the riding appear to show a decided edge to Morneau for signage (including restoring the sign tear-down in mid-Sep). And in my condo, only the Libs have visited -- and they've been here twice. The Cons are running a very weak candidate who will be a distant third. If current trends continue, the Liberals will continue to grow nationally and have this riding in the bag.
15 09 18 Jeff S
Forum has McQuaig up 41-40. The race is essentially even and remains TCTC. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1369/conservative-geoff-pollock-lags/
15 09 18 Torontonian
Riding-specific poll with NDP and Libs neck-and-neck at 41% to 40%.
This one will be a squeaker.
15 09 15 Marco Ricci
This is a close election so people should probably wait until October before making calls in ridings like this.
Pulsetaker, yes, Forum has good numbers for the NDP, but it's best to treat them with caution. No other pollster has the NDP that high. Today's new Ipsos poll shows the NDP lead down to 1-point Nationally:
However, just as it's important not to overstate NDP support, it's also important not to understate it. While there is no Orange Wave at the moment, Brian L is going too far by saying that NDP support is 'collapsing' outside Quebec. It is not. It is just dropping from the highs it had earlier in the Summer.
15 09 13 Poll Predictor
Pulse taker are kidding everyone. Bill Morneau not a strong candidate. The latest few polls show Linda McCuaig about 10 points behind him. He's s potential finance minister in a Justin Trudeau gov't. McCuag started off the campaign very strong and opened up her own double digit lead. But recently the NDP's numbers have been dropping especially in Ontario and the Liberals lead in Ontario. I know it's not over but this riding will be up for grabs but I'm going to predict Mr.Morneau will win here, but it won't be a landslide.
15 09 11 Pulsetaker
More recent polling has the NDP doing very well in Ontario with Forum putting support at 34% and there was a big poll of the whole City of Toronto this week by Mainstreet that has the NDP at 44% across the old City of Toronto - which is level with 2011 - buts its worth noting that in 2011 the Liberals had Bob Rae and the NDP just had a name on the ballot and no campaign at all - now the NDP has Linda McQuaig who is high profile and while known from her journalism and from her byelection run. the Liberals have chosen to parachute in a billionaire plutocrat who is an economist with the ultra rightwing CD Howe Institute and who lives far away in a castle on the Bridal path. Easy NDP pickup - what were the Liberals thinking running such a horrific candidate in this riding?
15 09 10 Brian L
Polling for the NDP is collapsing outside of Quebec. The polling averages done by Grenier for the CBC show a steady decline from its highs 2½ weeks ago and nowhere has it been more pronounced than in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.
Predictive analysis based on this data show that the NDP will win only 16 to 17 seats in Ontario which will see the NDP have fewer seats from Ontario in the next House of Commons than it did in the last, smaller House of Commons.
This is one of a few ridings in Toronto that have been called for the NDP which should be at least 'Too Close' if not called the other way for the Liberals.
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
I agree with jeff316 that McQuaig's oil sands comments probably won't have much effect here. Most voters here are not conservative and so will be voting largely along National/Provincial trends for either the Liberals or the NDP.
The minority of voters in this riding that are conservative might decide to vote against McQuaig by voting Liberal to stop her, but it's not likely to be the main issue in a left of centre riding like this.
As for this riding, it was leaning NDP earlier in the Summer when the NDP was ahead in Ontario, but now that the NDP has fallen behind in Ontario, it's become a toss-up again. (Currently 53% chance of going Liberal according to 308).
So Bill Morneau may be back in the game here. Either one probably still has a shot.
15 09 05 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals are doing very well in Ontario right now and I'm ready to call this one for the Liberals. Bill Morneau is a strong candidate, especially compared to the foot-in-mouth McQuaig. The Conservatives have no chance here and I suspect that some of them will hold their noses to vote out McQuaig. I know some who are already planning on doing just that. If the Liberals can keep up their momentum I think they will win here. If this Ontario lead turns out to be a blip, then I'd expect a very tight race.
15 09 04 Tony Ducey
Morneau wins this. Mcquaig is to controversial for me.
15 08 29 Mark
McQuaig is a very compelling author, but a less compellign candidate. She's too combative, too hard to relate to when you meet her in person. He rteam doesn't have the momentum she had last time. Expect her to have a tough time getting 30 percent in this election.
15 08 17 jeff316
Yawn. Only outsiders think McQuaig's oil/tar sands comments matter here. They don't. McQuaig will lose not because of her big mouth, but because the demographics - enough affluence and hoity-toityness mixed with Green Party pulse - are close, but no cigar for the NDP.
15 08 15 Sherbourne Vista
Once upon a time, this was fertile PC territory (David MacDonald, David Crombie) but it's been solidly Liberal for a long time. With Rosedale hacked off in the latest iteration, it's even less CPC friendly (who have been a long distant third for several elections). While the NDP's Linda McQuaig is high on name recognition, she's also capable of strident views. Newcomer Bill Morneau for the Liberals has a decent chance of holding this one for the party.
15 08 15
Linda McQuaig's foot in the mouth comment all but ensured a Liberal victory, even if she hadn't made the comment, Justin Trudeau's so far flawless campaign and Tom Mulcair's so far flawed campaign would've been enough to ensure a Liberal victory.
15 08 15 Annex Resident
The Liberals have consistently won this riding and will continue to do so. They held it during 2011 when Ignatieff was very unpopular and Layton was popular. In this election, with Trudeau as popular as Mulcair in Ontario (if not more popular than Mulcair) and a strong Liberal candidate against a NDP candidate who has lost before, it will stay Liberal.
15 08 12 Carleton Student
The oilsands comments are not a dealbreaker in this riding clearly. However, they show how the NDP candidate is on the fringe left with even her own party. She also lost to the Liberal in the by election, and I don't think the boundaries will make a world of difference. May I suggest running for parliament in Chavez' Venezuela.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
It's hard to know whether the media controversy over Linda McQuaig's oilsands comments will hurt her or whether it will be an issue that determines how people vote in this riding. Most people may just vote based on the overall party or leader they want to support.
On a related note, The Forum Poll conducted in the GTA after last week's Leader's Debate showed the Trudeau Liberals in 1st, so Liberal numbers may be going back up in Toronto.
15 08 10 Jeff S
McQuaig's comments that there shouldn't be 100% extraction will hurt her in this riding? I don't think so. If anything, it will help her. And Mourneau is about as small c conservative a Liberal as there is running. He may get CPC votes, but will lose a lot of progressive Liberal votes to the NDP.
15 08 10 Jason
Another Toronto riding where we have clash between a high profile Liberal and a high profile Dipper.
Linda McQuaig has recently been in the media for her 'extreme' views on oil sands development. It may be extreme in Alberta, but her viewpoint will resonate well with the leftist base in this riding.
With current polling trends, it is hard to see the McQuaig losing this seat. If she does lose it would be the credit of Bill Morneau and not the central campaign.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
Another difficult downtown Toronto riding to call. The polls are showing the NDP picking this up, but the Liberal candidate is much stronger and a potential finance minister if the Liberals form government whereas the NDP candidate seems like she's destined to the backbenches should the NDP form government. Linda McQuaig's recent comments about the oilsands may hurt her and the NDP and I agree that Conservatives, who have no chance here, will likely vote Liberal to keep out the NDP. TCTC for now.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
I know just as many former NDPers and Conservatives who will be voting Liberal this time in Toronto Centre. Bill Morneau has been campaigning longer and I think that he'll win over more Conservative voters who will want to keep the NDP shut out of this riding. This should by no means be considered a safe NDP gain. This should be TCTC until closer to the election.
15 08 03 Wilson
Morneau is definitely the strongest candidate in Toronto-Centre. Should be a tight race but ultimately a Liberal victory.
15 08 03
Bill Morneau is a potential finance minister in a Trudeau government. He has a great profile, maybe not as charismatic as Linda but at the end of the day I think the people of this riding will send him to Ottawa as their representative.
15 07 25 BAS
I have friends who live in Toronto Centre who normally vote Liberal, but this time are planning to vote NDP. These folks are generally apolitical, do not know who's running, but have made up their minds based on the performance of the party leaders. This echoes the positive street response to my Mulcair button. I'd say this time Toronto Centre will go NDP.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
TTC. Linda is the stronger candidate and already got some recognition in the by-election. If the NDP continue to poll well they should win this, but it's too early to tell rigth now.
15 07 08 seasaw
I would give a slight edge to the NDP, at least for now anyway, but one should never count the Liberals out. It may go right down the wire with either Liberal or NDP win
15 07 01 HFoster
Bill Morneau may be a star candidate, but Linda McQuaig reaches equal stature in relevancy. The riding will be a close race between the Liberals and NDP, but McQuaig has the advantage of formerly running in this riding and has a one-up on Morneau at the moment. The way the NDP is polling right now should give McQuaig the win.
15 06 28 A.S.
And so, just as in the great 3-out-of-2 Downtown Toronto redistribution, Spadina-Fort York became the seat most commonly ceded to the Liberals despite having the biggest notional NDP share in 2011, the only one of the three to be notionally *Liberal* in 2011 (thanks to the long-dominant political machine in its predecessor seat) became the NDP's 'last hope remaining'--partly through being an open seat with an incumbent Liberal not running, partly through the loss of Rosedale lifting a big suffocating polling blanket off the Dippers' shoulders, and partly due to Bill Morneau being more of a 'Rosedale Liberal' running in a now Rosedale-less seat. Then again (and just as in the byelection), McQuaig might suffer from issues paralleling Morneau's, i.e. in and of herself, a 'star candidate' more among the insufferable Rabble-reading chattering class than among 'the people'. That is, it'll take something even bigger--ground troops, C-51 backlash, etc--to give her that winning boost.
15 06 23 ML
I'm going to change my prediction from 'Leaning Liberal' to 'Too close to call.' Throughout Ontario the Liberals are dropping and the NDP are rising, even beyond their 2011 'Orange Crush' levels. However, I am still reluctant to call Toronto Centre a sure thing for the NDP. A I mentioned in my earlier prediction, the Toronto Centre Liberal riding association is an exceptionally organized, well-funded behemoth with strong ties to Toronto's business and social elite. Even with low provincial polling numbers the Grits will put a lot of resources in this riding. After all, Morneau is widely touted as their 'finance minister in waiting.' Of course, the reconfiguration of the riding boundaries work largely in the NDP's favour. Chopping off Rosedale and Moore Park from the riding eats into a lot of the Liberal base. Still, upwardly mobile residents of the new condo developments in Corktown, St. Lawrence and the Distillery District might be wary of McQuaig's combative left wing, social-justice oriented approach.
15 05 14 A. Voter
With McQuaig's strength south of Bloor in the last by-election, municipal voting patterns and the NDP bounce post Alberta, I think the NDP will take this riding.
15 04 30 Gillian
With a well-known candidate in Linda McQuaig, the NDP should take the redistributed Toronto Centre.
15 04 23 Docere
Linda McQuaig is a formidable candidate for the NDP, and with the territory north of Bloor having been removed from TC, the riding is much more winnable for the NDP. Bill Morneau was originally set to run for the Liberals in DVW but shifted to TC after the former MP there objected. Could be an interesting battle of 'corporate liberalism' vs. a more explicitly left-wing politics.
Morneau isn't a great fit for the riding (he's really more of a 'north of Bloor' candidate). Still, the Liberals have an advantage given polling right now in Ontario, and I would give them the edge. But for now, TCTC.
15 04 09 JC
Bill Morneau has had his campaign office open for months, he's also been the nominated candidate for almost 9 months. Trudeau is going to ensure his man wins this riding no matter what it takes. Morneau is a likely cabinet minister in a Liberal Government.
15 04 11 PY
In this riding, I admit my political calculus was wrong in that I did not anticipate that Bill Morneau would make his way westward from Don Valley East, where the head office of the company that bears his name is actually located and might've been a better fit for him.
I believe that as will be the case in Spadina--Fort York and University--Rosedale next door, condos such as the X and X2 on Charles, as well as the new developments in Regent Park, could prove key to victory here.
McQuaig has been able to restore some of her name recognition thanks to her running in the by-election two years ago, but unfortunately, it's been dulled over the years by the increased presence of her journalist peers, including Chrystia Freeland (while at the Globe).
She might put up a decent effort again, but I don't think the numbers will really be there for her. In fact, I believe her best chance would've been back in 1993 (had she won the NDP nomination instead of Jack Layton), on the heels of the Blue Jays winning their second World Series and her Star colleague Rosie DiManno receiving praise for her coverage of the team...it would've made for an interesting race between McQuaig and Bill Graham. She might regret deciding not to run back then.
(Full disclosure: I still prefer Rosie DiManno's columns than McQuaig's when reading the Star.)
15 04 05 MGK
In downton Toronto, redistribution took a safe Liberal riding and an NDP-leaning riding and mixed them up into 3 potentially tight races. This is the only one of the three where the local candidate contest favours the NDP. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes either way, but at the moment I'm leaning toward calling it for Linda McQuaig. She used the by-election to introduce herself to the voters, and with the new, more competitive boundaries it should pay off.
15 03 29 Jason
For some reason Toronto Centre always attracts high profile candidates.
Both Bill Morneau and Linda McQuaig are strong candidates for their respective parties and in many ways these individuals symbolize what they party stands for.
The Liberals will likely win as they have a slight advantage in Toronto Centre historically. Moreover, the Liberals won the redistributed area in 2011 even when the NDP surged in downtown Toronto.
The NDP will spend more time defending the seats they already hold.
15 03 28 monkey
The loss of Rosedale section definitely helps the NDP, but a lot will depend on which party the progressive vote unites behind or do they split it. Thus too early to tell at this point.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Another election where the NDP will waste a ton of effort on Tor Cen only to lose to the LPC.
15 03 24 Fairview Resident
The Federal Liberals carried the old riding by 9% during the Liberal collapse, and 13% after a nasty byelection when both parties pulled out all the stops. Since then, the NDP has lost ground in Ontario and urban Toronto specifically - Vaughan turned a 30 point win into a 20 point loss in Trinity-Spadina, the provincial party took a number of seats from the NDP and Glen Murray increased his margin here from 13,500 or 30% to 20,000 or 40%. This won't be the landslide that Glen Murray enjoys, but nor is it TCTC.
15 03 24 ML
This will be a very, very close race. But I am leaning slightly towards the Liberals. The Grits have a very robust machine in this riding with strong connections to Toronto's corporate and LGBT high society. The riding has remained red for decades at both the provincial and federal level. Linda McQuaig certainly has name recognition, and will likely hoist her 'class warrior' credentials against Bill Morneau's Bay Street resume in a riding with some of the most glaring divisions of wealth in the country. Still, McQuaig would have to overcome riding history and much higher Liberal polling in Ontario.
15 03 24 JC
This is my riding, Morneau already has his campaign office open. McQuaig is a good candidate but Morneau will win.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This is the most likely pick up for the NDP in Toronto. The less NDP-friendly areas have been distributed off and the Dippers have a star candidate. That said, the general trends in Ontario and Toronto in particular, are not favorable to NDP gains. For now, I say Liberal hold but I'm keeping a watch on this riding.

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