Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:41:11

Constituency Profile


Boulanger, Elise

Fantino, Julian

Gualtieri, Anthony

Sorbara, Francesco

Zichy, Adriana Marie

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (165/165 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Julian Fantino


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15 10 14 Stevo
Agree that the liberals are poised to win this back. Italian-Canadians generally vote Liberal on autopilot, with the last couple elections being mere exceptions. A return to normal state of affairs here on October 19.
15 10 13 Marco Ricci
CTV's Robert Fife reported tonight that Conservative sources expect Julian Fantino to 'go down to defeat':
15 10 13 JC
Robert Fife of CTV news says that Tory insiders expect Fantino to go down in defeat, along with Joe Oliver and Chris Alexander. I think the Liberals are winning this riding.
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
Yeah, Dr. Bear, I agree that it's hard to know whether the recent assault charges surfacing against Fantino after so many years will have much impact (it could even get him a few sympathy votes!)
I think this riding will be determined by the wider factors:
1. How much personal popularity does Fantino have? And can it withstand a more competitive Liberal Party? Fantino clearly has a base of support with Italians since he was able to take away a long-term Liberal stronghold back in 2010/2011. But in 2010, he only narrowly won the by-election, so that shows he is not invulnerable. The 2011 win by a bigger margin was more a reflection of the general Conservative trend that year. Polls show the Liberals in a much more competitive race with the Conservatives in the 905 this year.
2. How much of the traditionally Liberal Italian-Canadian vote will come back this year because of Trudeau? The last 2 Liberal leaders lost ground with Italians. Being Italian-Canadian myself, I can tell that Trudeau is bringing back some of the older generation of Italians that used to vote Liberal before the Harper era, and some that even voted for Pierre Trudeau several decades back. However, as the Liberals have learned in recent years, you can't just assume a community is in your pocket. You have to earn the vote. Justin Trudeau was here for an event a few days ago, so the riding is still close, and it appears neither side is taking it for granted.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
I'm very suspicious of these assault charges being brought up now FORTY-TWO years after it happened. I believe most voters would agree with me, regardless of which side of the political fence you sit. While I think this race is TCTC, my assessment it based upon current polling numbers, Fantino's personal popularity, as well as his less-than-stellar behavior as a minister.
15 10 02 Monkey Cheese
Here's an interesting development - Julian Fantino is now facing assault charges dating back from his policing days. It does seem a little suspect that the victim waited until now, but apparently the man in question testified back in July. The details of the assault are a little disturbing, so I won't post them here, but they're pretty damning for Fantino. This is going to hurt him. The question is will it hurt him enough for him to lose?
I hate citing The Sun, but it's where the original story appeared to come from.: http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/01/julian-fantino-charged-with-assault-over-1973-arrest
15 09 22 R.O.
my though on this riding was that liberals needed Julian Fantino to retire to have a better chance here. he has been a candidate that has done well in Vaughan and high profile in Ontario from his time in law enforcement. This riding does have a lot of liberal history and still liberal provincially but Fantino got elected here as a conservative without much difficulty in 2011. I don't know if his performance in cabinet will be much of a factor when voters in Vaughan elect an mp .
15 09 20 Nick M.
Has the Sorbara family ever lost an election? Two very high profile candidates, I think Sorbara though might be a stronger name, believe it or not.
culturally Itallian Canadian Like to keep their voting intentions secret, (true most people do anyways) but will agree to have a sign up on their lawn of anyone who asks. There home becomes diplomatic lawns.
It is common for an Italian-Canadian to tell the canvasser that they support your candidate, but are actually voting for another candidate.
Bevilacqua is a politician who would attend everyone's wedding. I am certain the Sorbrara dynasty has done the same.
15 09 11 Initial
I'm not sure why this riding has not been updated to Too close to call yet. As As resident I'm seeing neighbours who voted for the conservative party turning back to the liberals. Not a sure thing by any stretch but his really should reflect the sentiment of the riding more accurately
15 09 10 Dr.Bear
This is for sure TCTC. Tory numbers are falling and there has always been strong support for the Liberals in this riding. Even in the 2011 disaster, the Liberals still managed 30% of the vote. While I say Fantino has the edge, I can't ignore the polling numbers.
15 09 09 Brian L
Time to change this riding to 'Too close'.
The Conservatives are starting to collapse in Ontario and voters outside of Quebec and British Columbia are moving to prevent the NDP from getting power.
308 is showing a slight lead for the Liberal candidate in the riding and Fantino, despite his Italian heritage, faces a candidate who also has Italian heritage. Moreover, Fantino is a disaster as a cabinet minister and has been the worst (and no one else comes close) Veterans' Affairs Minister in the history of this country.
Vets are not going to vote for him.
While I won't call this for the Liberals just yet, I don't think that this is a lock for the Cons.
15 09 08 Monkey Cheese
This should be moved to TCTC due to to strong Ontario polling numbers for the Liberals and a collapse in Conservative support. As I mentioned earlier, Fantino was a highly incompetent minister to the point that veterans are now campaigning against Harper across the country. As of today (September 8), 308 is also calling this riding for the Liberals with 63%. If this momentum lasts for another month, then expect to see Fantino lose his seat, and deservedly so.
15 08 03 Docere
Fantino may be a disaster in Cabinet, but he's popular in the Woodbridge Italian Canadian community and he won this by a gigantic margin in 2011. Unless the Liberals outpoll the Conservatives in the 905, I don't see them taking this seat back or winning more than one or two seats in York Region.
15 08 03 Docere
Noah Richler is indeed an excellent candidate for the NDP and I think they're going to crack 30% and second place. But Carolyn Bennett is quite formidable and I think that if the Liberals were reduced to a dozen seats nationally, St. Paul's would be one of them. Since 1993, St. Paul's has shifted from bellwether to a Liberal citadel.
15 08 01 Jason
While, I mentioned King Vaughan will go to the Liberals (as well as Richmond Hill and Markham ridings), I see Vaughan Woodbridge strongly in the Conservative camp.
Julian Fantino is very popular in this riding despite his lousy record as minister. He will take this riding again, albeit a smaller margin than 2011.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Fantino was the most incompetent Veterans Affairs minister this country has ever seen. People will remember the poor way he treated veterans. He was bad enough that Harper had to shuffle him out of that position. People will remember that. The Sorbara name is a popular one in the Italian community and he'll make this a very interesting race. TCTC to call at the moment.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Fantino has now been nominated. He's simply very well known and liked by Italians (most of this riding), and is especially popular with seniors. Sorbara, however, holds a bit of a wildcard. He has the same last name as a recent provincial MPP for Vaughan. Also, the default for many in this riding is still Liberal, but that has been changing, as many Italians have realized (during Fantino's time) that their small c-conservative values align more with the CPC. Should be closer than last time, but Fantino is the more commanding and well-known of the two contending candidates.
15 07 21 A.S.
Keep in mind that Fantino was boosted by byelected incumbency in 2011; had he not been a sitting member, much less had he faced a reoffering Bevilacqua, it could have been a much tighter race even if Fantino prevailed in the end. So while he's a sexy Il Duce-esque CPC villain for the antis, he really shouldn't be as invulnerable as the woe-is-ussers claim--Vaughan's still solid-Italo-Grit-as-it-ever-was provincially. OTOH, it's a seat where the Liberals can be very strong but the NDP's terminally 10%-threshold weak--which is another way of saying that it's the archetypal target for the Cons' 'Just Not Ready' anti-Justin tack.
15 06 03 Marco Ricci
It is now June and Julian Fantino still hasn't been nominated for the Conservatives. The 'Vaughan Citizen' says that Fantino has not responded to their repeated questions as to why no nomination meeting has been held.
Meanwhile, the publication reports that Francesco Sorbara, a relative of former MPP Greg Sorbara, will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate this week.
15 04 26 Marco Ricci
As an Italian-Canadian, I agree that most Italian Canadians tend to be in the Liberal-Conservative area of the spectrum, and not usually NDP. Italians can be socially conservative on certain issues such as gay marriage (including in Italy where there is more opposition to it than in other European countries).
Historically in Canada many Italians voted Liberal, and this is still the case in ridings such as St. Léonard in Montréal and provincially in this riding.
What made the difference for the Conservatives here was Fantino himself, which is why they ran him after Maurizio Bevilacqua left to become Mayor. The Conservatives also gained Italian votes because prior Liberal leaders became complacent and assumed they had the Italian vote in the bag. However, although Julian Fantino won by a large margin in 2011, he won narrowly in the 2010 by-election. He may not have won by a large margin in 2011 had the Liberal vote not collapsed under Iggy.
While the Liberals lost ground with Italians under Iggy, I have noticed some Italian voters returning to the Liberals since Justin Trudeau took over. Some of the older Italians voted for Pierre Trudeau. So there is the potential for Liberal growth with Italians as long as LPC doesn't take the Italian community for granted like Iggy did.
Francesco Sorbara, a relative of former Vaughan Liberal MPP Greg Sorbara, is running for the LPC nomination, but hasn't been confirmed yet.
What's hard to determine at this stage is what Julian Fantino's plans are. He still hasn't been nominated even though it is nearly May. He's in his 70's and might be considering retiring.
So until Fantino confirms he is running again, we can't actually call this riding.
15 04 06 Stevo
I don't think anyone would ever call this a 'safe Conservative riding'. It is true that Italian Canadians are often small-c conservative in their views, however historically the community was closely wedded to the Liberal Party. If I'm not mistaken, Maurizio Bevilacqua won here in 1993 (slightly different boundaries of course) with the largest absolute vote margin in Canadian history, something like 50,000 votes separating him from the second-place candidate. The default vote here is Liberal, not Conservative, but Fantino should be able to hold it for at least another election, hence my Conservative call.
15 03 28 monkey
Despite the fact it looks like a safe Tory riding based on just last election's results this one has a history of either going solidly Liberal as it did up until 2011 and has provincially since 2003, or solidly Conservative like last election as well as provincially during the Harris years. Has a large Italian community who are generally centre-right thus has the tendency to swing quite hard in whichever direction it goes. At this point, too early to say which direction that may be.
15 03 25 Marco Ricci
Julian Fantino is theoretically running again, but he hasn't actually been re-nominated yet, which is a bit surprising since it's nearly April 2015. According to Pundit's Guide, all incumbent Conservative MP's except for 3 have been re-nominated. They are: Lynne Yelich in SK, Leon Benoit in AB and Julian Fantino. This leads me to believe that Fantino hasn't decided yet whether he's running again, so we can't determine what will happen in this riding yet.
15 03 22 Brendan O'Farrell
If the Thornhill riding is too close to call then this riding is too close to call, Fantino or no Fantino. Kent in Thornhill won by a bigger margin than Fantino. Fantino says he's running again and if he does he unfortunately has a good chance of winning due to sheer personal popularity but hope it is at least closer than last time.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Vaughan was a very close riding under the old boundaries and under these new ones may look like a solid Conservative demerit hold (if they voted for Fantino once...)
However, Fantino has been an astonishingly bad federal minister, even by Harper cabinet standards. He stands out for failing to spend money that was allocated to prevent veteran suicides, for having no argument of any merit regarding the F-35, and is still tainted with the G20 police abuse in Toronto in 2010 (the inquiries regarding which concluded after 2011's federal election).
Francesco Sorbara, a financial analyst with extensive volunteer resume, and AM770 broadcaster and teacher Gurnek Singh are seeking the Liberal nomination. It's not clear if defeating Fantino is priority for Team Trudeau. Fantino was one of the most vulnerable MPs to vote swapping given the anger around the G20, but its reach in this riding was limited.
15 03 19 Jason
Julian Fantino may be a lousy minister but he is very popular in Woodbridge. While he has not been officially nominated yet, Fantino states he will be running again. If he runs again, he can easily defeat a generic Liberal candidate. The Liberals have not fielded anybody noteworthy.
If Fantino decides to retire, then the riding would become more interesting.

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