Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Windsor West

Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:49:39

Constituency Profile


LaRussa, Cora

Lau, Henry

Masse, Brian

Sundin, Dave

Villamizar, Margaret

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1530.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Windsor West
   (232/232 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brian Masse


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15 09 27 prognosticator15
As long as Masse runs for the NDP, I cannot see this riding changing hands. He has a strong enough following and high profile to rely on about half the vote, and the demographics favors NDP. Liberal candidate is little known, and the anti-NDP vote tends to go Conservative in recent elections, but without the same strength in numbers.
15 09 21 R.O.
Harper's visit to Windsor seemed to generate a lot of attention and some of the articles pointed out the 2 windsor ridings have been ndp for a while. So its likely his visit was more to discuss the manufacturing sector in general. than say target this specific riding which has been fairly safe for ndp ,is most urban of 3 windsor ridings and incumbent mp Brian Masse running for re-election . however there is still a conservative vote in the riding as they got 31% in 2011 but likely to stay ndp.
15 06 18 A.S.
I suppose that if an 'Orange Is The New Red' age is truly upon us, it could readily be argued that its seed was planted with Brian Masse's 2002 byelection victory--not just through the symbolism of his replacing Herb Gray, but in how Masse's a truly 'grand coalition' kind of New Democrat (whereas his earlier-elected neighbour Joe Comartin was much more intrinsic to the party's traditional unionized base). Though the optimistic might claim that now that the Grits have been wiped out in Windsor provincially as well, it's high time they bid to 'reverse the counterpoint' so to speak. (Which would have been likelier were we back to the wouldbe status quo of Justin outpolling Mulcair 2:1.)
15 03 27 Marco Ricci
This was the riding of former Liberal Deputy PM Herb Gray for several decades. But until Brian Masse retires or the Liberals attain a Jéan Chrétien type sweep of Ontario, I don't see this riding leaving the NDP.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Windsor likes to keep their incumbents. This was obvious back when I used to live in this riding. Aside from solid NDP support here and the personal popularity of Brian Masse, I don't expect this to go anything my orange.

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