Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Humber River-Black Creek

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Harris, Darnel

Jarrett, Keith

Nugent, Christine

Sgro, Judy

Vandenberg, Kerry

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4011.45%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   York West
   (182/182 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Judy Sgro


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15 09 06 Tony Ducey
Sgro is an interesting character, I think we all remember 'Stripper gate' from her time as minister. Still she keeps getting elected and I think that'll stay intact here in 2015.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
There is no way the Liberals are losing here with an entrenched incumbent. Judy Sgro will keep her seat. She may see some of her vote share, but the Liberals are still polling high enough for them to keep this seat.
15 08 07 R.O.
Somewhat confusing name change but this is the old York West riding , a pretty solid liberal riding in north Toronto. Never really been much of a conservative target and Judy Sgro been mp for a while now. I do think the ndp have potential here and could maybe do better but likely to stay liberal
15 08 03 Docere
I wouldn't rule out an NDP pickup here - nor do I think it's a safer riding for the Liberals than St. Paul's or Agincourt. Certainly it's tailor made for an NDP breakthrough if the NDP continues to top the polls or appears better poised to form the government than the Liberals. I would even argue that the Liberals are more likely to hold on in neighboring Etobicoke North, where the NDP is a bit weaker. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP is able to attract a strong candidate here.
15 07 05 Mr. Dave
In the recent provincial election, the Liberals only won the old York West riding by less than 1900 votes over the NDP.
Given the rise in NDP support in Ontario over the past few months coupled with the decline in Liberal support, this riding should become T.C.T.C. in my opinion.
15 07 01 HFoster
This riding had a strong shift towards the NDP in the 2014 provincial election despite a collapse in NDP vote everywhere else in Toronto. If Mulcair is on track to form government, this could be a seat the NDP can pick up. The NDP have yet to nominate a candidate, but if they get a high profile name or someone well known in the riding, they can win. Judy Sgro has been here for ages (both on City Council and as an MP), so that could give the Liberals an advantage. Despite her controversies she has continued to be re-elected, and for that reason I am saying it is too close to call at the moment.
15 06 29 Gillian
The NDP have a great local candidate who is well-known in the riding seeking the nomination. With the NDP leading in the polls nationally and with new Canadians flocking to the NDP in droves after years of broken Conservative and Liberal promises, this riding will turn orange in 2015.
15 04 12 A.S.
Well, to those who've traditionally followed their psephology in linear fashion, for this to no longer be Ontario's alphabetical 'last seat' is truly a landmark moment. But that aside, I'd treat any 'Ontario's safest Liberal seat' claims with caution: had Sgro *not* run in 2011, there's a good chance that York West could have 'Rathika'd' itself. And further underlining the demographics that would've hinted at such possibility: provincially, in 2014, the NDP's Tom Rakocevic got over 39% and came within 7.5% of the Liberals' Mario Sergio--a rare bright spot for 'Horwath populism' within the 416. And like Sergio if to a lesser degree, Sgro's got a bit of a 'not getting any younger' stigma--an artifact of pre-Justinian Liberal hackdom, so to speak. Hey, if Allan Tonks can be felled, so can Judy Sgro. Really.
15 04 19
For 25 years, people have been waiting for the demographics of this riding to change to something more NDP or Tory friendly. People suggested Jewish people would move in or other ethnic groups or that it would go more upscale or that people in the huge swaths of apartment buildings would vote (it should be noted that when they do, they tend to vote Conservative). Hasn't happened, yet. At some point, the homeowners who are largely Italian will leave and be replaced by who knows what. Until then, Old renamed York West remains the last of the old school ethnic Liberal ridings in the country. And, no, they are not going to ditch Trudeau's kid.
15 03 28 Stevo
The former York West, this is arguably the safest Liberal seat in the country.
15 03 19 Jason
Easy hold for the Liberals looking at the provincial and federal history of this riding. This is one of the safest seats for the federal Liberals in the entire country. Besides that Judy Sgro is a popular MP locally and served as a cabinet minister under Martin.

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