Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:43:56

Constituency Profile


Maguire, Larry

Neufeld, David

Wastasecoot, Melissa Joy

Wyman, Jodi

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 180.05%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (179/197 polls, 96.36% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Larry Maguire

   (18/197 polls, 3.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Candice Bergen


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15 09 29 Monkey Cheese
With the Liberals polling so well in Manitoba, tied with the Conservatives in some polls, there is potential for them to capitalize on their by-election momentum. They could do better in this riding than what sites like 308 are currently predicting. Until we get a specific riding poll here, I'm going to have to go with the Conservatives on this one, but with a reduced margin from the last election.
15 09 27 A.S.
The continuous-but-for-1993 federal Conservative history in Brandon-Souris is a curious one; after all, Brandon proper (Manitoba's 'second city', let us not forget) has been a recurring provincial NDP stronghold over the years--though of course, a lot of that has been big-tent *Progressive* Conservativism a la Rick Borotsik or Dinsdale-the-elder. (Maybe if the NDP brand in Manitoba weren't so crippled by provincial shenanigans, it would have been a Sask/BC-esque Dipper 'gain' in 1988.) While common wisdom has Dinsdale-the-younger's near-miss as a byelection fluke, in the present provincial dead-heat circumstance it does have a way of framing this as the Liberals' Manitoba version of what Lethbridge has come to mean for the NDP in Alberta. So, maybe a little outer-limits allowance here.
15 09 26 DSquared
A Probe poll in the Winnipeg Free Press has the Liberals and Conservatives tied. Depending on how the out-of-Winnipeg results were gathered, this could put Brandon-Souris in play. The Liberals nearly won the by-election, and with a candidate from a well-known Brandon law firm combined with the unpopularity of the provincial NDP and federal Conservative governments, the Liberals have a long-shot possibility of taking this area.
15 08 02 R.O.
Its hard to believe there was a by election here and the liberals almost won . however things seem to have returned to normal here and well known liberal candidate Rolf Dinsdale is not back for this election. My guess is ndp vote will also return to normal levels here . either way Larry Mcquire should be able to hold this riding.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
Malcontent with the CPC nomination process and the subsequent star candidacy of the Liberal allowed the LPC to get oh-so-close to winning this seat in the byelection. Unfortunately for them, repeating this in the general election will be much more difficult as this conservative riding will be voting more for a preferred party platform.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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