Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:44:02
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Lewycky, Laverne M.

Mark, Inky

Piché, Ray

Sopuck, Robert

Storey, Kate


Population/populations
(2011 census)

87374


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2221264.52%
854024.80%
21806.33%
14704.27%
Other 270.08%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
   (216/255 polls, 85.61% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Robert Sopuck
18543
7657
1947
1243


   Brandon-Souris
   (28/255 polls, 10.09% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Larry Maguire
2206
770
177
175


   Portage-Lisgar
   (11/255 polls, 4.31% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Candice Bergen
1463
113
56
52
Other27



 


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
Inky Mark has little personal popular vote. He will not be winning this riding. The utter and total lack of people claiming to the otherwise - compared to, for example, Hec Clouthier - is evidence of this enough.
15 09 25 CH
99.248.244.2
Inky Mark is popular, and as Hec Clouthier will tell you, former MPs running again as independents can do very well if they're popular. I'm calling this as a close Conservative vs Inky Mark race, but I think Inky Mark will barely garner enough anti-Conservative votes to win by 5-10 points.
15 09 01 A.S.
99.233.125.239
An idiosyncratic race tempered only by the common presumption that the Cons'll win again (and its being too far in the Manitoba boondocks for people to notice). Inky Mark's a real wild card, though maybe a bit too oddball (and too 'yesterday') to benefit from Duffygate backlash; while Lewycky (who'd probably be more damaged by than damaging to Inky) continues the fine Manitoban tradition of dredging up hoary NDP old-timers to lend an 'experienced' face to apparent no-hope scenarios (Al Mackling, 2011; and of course, Ed Schreyer, 2006). Ah well, maybe riding polls (as opposed to 308 'projections') will be forthcoming to elucidate the picture...
15 08 13 R.O.
24.146.23.226
I don't know if former mp Inky Marks independent run will have an impact here or not. He was mp for a while but its also a fairly conservative area at federal level. and current mp Rob Sopock is running for re election and seems to be liked in the area. ndp have somewhat of a presence here as well .
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
204.187.20.75
With former MP Inky Mark running as an independent and a one-term MP from 1980 running for the NDP, this race might be a little bit interesting. However, the CPC will still win, albeit with a small margin.



Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster