Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Winnipeg Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:39:09

Constituency Profile


Martin, Pat

Miller, Scott

Ouellette, Robert-Falcon

Rankin, Darrell

Szarkiewicz, Allie

Woodstock, Don

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1520.59%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Winnipeg Centre
   (157/157 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pat Martin


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 18 Marco Ricci
There was a massive turnout for Justin Trudeau in Winnipeg tonight that surprised even some of the journalists in terms of the scale of it, with huge lines around the block.
Whether that is able to flip this riding into the Liberal column remains to be seen, but if the Liberals are to do it, this would be the year.
15 10 19 dehall
Riding with a large NDP majority last time and incumbent running again. Large proportion of immigrant and aboriginal voters and one of the lowest income levels of any riding in Canada. Normally should be a walk away for the NDP and I think they will still win, but....
The Liberals are running a very strong young aboriginal candidate who is taking some of the traditionally NDP aboriginal vote. Combine this strong candidate and campaign with the seeming strong swing nationally to the Liberals and away from the NDP and a Liberal upset becomes plausible if not likely.
15 10 15 PT
I know this riding extremely well and agree it will be much closer than last time, but keep in mind that the Liberals would have to at least triple their vote to have a chance here. Nevertheless, with RFO running under the Liberal banner, there's an interesting race going on here.
Some have commented here on the number of Liberal signs in the riding, but a massive number of these seem to be placed placed in front of businesses, rooming houses, empty lots and apartment buildings. For this reason, it's really hard to gauge how much signs reflect voter intentions.
Some people have also commented that if only the First Nations vote turns out, this riding will swing Liberal, but a First Nations activist I know told me that the Liberal candidate is not at all popular among many in the community as he's not local and hasn't had time to become known or lay down any roots. My guess is that First Nations voters will be split between the two parties and may even continue to lean NDP.
Though the recent media regarding Pat Martin's outbursts may cost the NDP a few votes, it's not news to anyone here that he's an outspoken and sometimes controversial MP. I expect his high profile and the longtime strength of the NDP in this area will carry the day, giving the NDP a win by about 10 points over the Liberal.
15 10 15 William Bishop
Liberal rise will put this in contention their poll numbers in the province are too high to think this will be an easy NDP win.
15 10 14 Interested Observer
Seeing tons of on the ground momentum for RFO. Conservatives a non-factor, but provincial NDP probably weigh Martin down. It's a low voter turnout riding, often, so a little hard to predict, but could easily see this one going Liberal, maybe a more likely gain for them than Wpg South or Wpg South Centre.
15 10 11 Mark in Mexico
I will posit that the models -- hamstrung by the Liberals' near-evisceration in the Prairies in 2011 -- are not distributing the Liberal vote quite the way the chips are likely to fall on the 19th. There is no middle ground: even though the Liberals are polling in the 40s in Winnipeg, the Liberals are generally projected to land in the 50s/60s in their traditional areas of strength, and in the teens elsewhere (except for Charleswood, which is its own special case).
Meanwhile, when compared to the model, riding polls have shown the Liberals being weaker in their strongholds, and stronger in their...weakholds.
Add in a strong, well-known candidate (who is more likely to be in government than his primary opponent), and some rumblings that Mr. @#$! may have worn out his welcome after all these years, and we have a race.
TCTC, but it's Mr. Martin's to lose.
15 10 12 South Islander
This story tells you all you need to know about why this incumbent is more of a liability than an asset for the NDP in Winnipeg Centre this time around - it's not just his foul language, but his arrogance and disrespect. I stand by my previous prediction. With the NDP drop and Liberal surge in MB, this riding should be changed to TCTC, but I think Martin is toast.
15 10 05 Marco Ricci
I suppose it's possible that there could be an upset here. I predicted below that I think Martin will hang on despite a strong challenge from Ouellette because of the large margins Martin has won in the past, and also the NDP history in the riding.
However, I heard from a dedicated NDP volunteer in this riding that Martin may be more vulnerable because of the Ouellette challenge and that Martin losing his temper in that outburst last month and having to apologize may have turned off some Martin supporters. The NDP volunteer also said that Ouellette seems to be now overtaking Martin in signs and that this could be the toughest race Martin has ever faced.
So while I still tend to give the edge to Martin, the 2 posters below could be right that perhaps we will see a surprise upset here on Election Night. It would be interesting to see a riding poll here from a reputable pollster to see what is actually going on. TCTC?
15 10 05 Greg
I don't understand how this is showing as an NDP win. The latest Nanos numbers show the NDP dropping like a rock nationally, and I have trouble seeing Manitoba, with the disaster that is the provincial NDP, bucking that trend. Both parties' internal polling is showing the race as being within the margin of error, and Pat Martin continues to go down the path of self-destruction every time he ends up in front of a microphone (last week's performance on CBC Radio One was the latest example).
If I had to put money down I'd go with RFO, but since I don't then TCTC is my prediction.
15 10 03 South Islander
I'm not sure this is an NDP lock even though historical voting would indicate that they are prohibitive favorites. The provincial party is massively unpopular, while the LPC surging in Manitoba. RFO is a high-profile and popular candidate, while Martin is always in the news for losing his temper. If you look at 2004-2008, Winnipeg North was even more strongly NDP before JWL resigned to run for mayor. Lamoureux won it in a by-election and held it through the worst general election in his party's history.
The way this election is going, the NDP is in serious trouble. And every time one party makes significant gains at the expense of another, they manage to win a few surprise victories against entrenched incumbents in ridings no-one thought would be competitive. I have a feeling this will be one of those ridings.
15 09 29 ME
This will be a Liberal pickup on Oct 19th...shocking really ..I note Trudeau was there today ..they smell blood
15 09 26 Marco Ricci
'Deadlocked in Manitoba' - PROBE (Sept. 2015)
CPC - 39
LPC - 39
NDP - 18
Winnipeg (Core)
LPC: 41%
NDP: 38%
CPC: 18%
PROBE says the Liberals have gone from a distant 3rd under Ignatieff in 2011 to a tie with the Conservatives, with the NDP being the one in a distant 3rd in 2015.
This could be why even in Winnipeg Centre, there is a closer race than usual. This could explain Pat Martin's angry outburst & foul language last week that he had to apologize for. Looks like Robert F-O may be giving him a closer race than expected. TCTC?
15 09 21 Monkey Cheese
Pat Martin is crude and kinda like the NDP's Donald Trump, only without the racism. On the other hand RFO is an inspirational candidate and a total class act, especially when he deals with racism. This is a very interesting NDP-Liberal battle in Manitoba. I suspect that this riding will be a lot closer than people expect, but Pat Martin has the edge due to polling data and his incumbency bump. This will be a NDP hold, but I can see it being even more competitive whenever he decides to retire.
15 09 11 Rob B
I find it hard to believe that this will not go NDP. Should be the safest NDP seat in Manitoba. that being said, RFO is running a very strong and visible campaign. Meanwhile Pat Martin is a prickly candidate who doesn't exude many warm and fuzzies.
Be that as it may, unless national trends start going overwhelmingly Liberal, I think it would be wishful thinking to expect a Liberal win here. The Martin machine and the traditions of this riding are probably too much for RFO to overcome.
15 09 09 AG
I think this riding will be a major swing and it will only be based off one thing. Can the liberals and RFO get the first nations to vote. First Nations People tend to be the lowest people to actually vote on election day in the past. If they can get even 50% of the Aboriginal to vote they will win this riding. If they fail to do so then I can very well see Pat Martin winning this but not by as much as everyone thinks.
TLDR: Close race, probably stays NDP
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
I can't see how Pat Martin can lose, unless the Liberals somehow dominate Manitoba. However, there is some evidence that this is happening, I just don't believe it at this point.
15 08 29 granola guy
This race should be close. Pat Martin has suffered from his reputation for being the honorary MP from Saltspring Island, and he tends to put his foot in his mouth.
Robert Falcon-Ouelette showed well in the past mayoral election, and he has personal charisma. He would appeal to the sizable First Nations demographic in this riding, but he also showed some weaknesses as a retail politician. This election will show whether he has potential as a politician, although I still feel that the provincial level suits him best.
If I had to choose, I'd go with Martin by a nose, not because of his merits, but because of the general strength of the NDP federally.
15 08 15 Locksley
While Liberal fortunes were riding high in spring and had them licking their chops over this riding it is likely that advantage is back in Martin's favour right now. An NDP crest has again emerged in a writ period and this poll has probably factored down in Liberal hopes.
Zero signs are up right now aside from a Martin campaign office on Portage so it is tough to see if there is any kind of advantage or swing on that front.
Still not locked up for Martin and RFO is a threat but the early signs remain NDP hold for now.
15 08 12
RFO was a star in the mayoral election. It'll be close with him and Martin.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
I think the NDP is probably the safe prediction based on the history of this riding, but I would be cautious about totally writing off the potential for RFO to make gains here. He is running a pretty active & visible campaign and has the ability to substantially raise the Liberal vote. Most likely it will be more of a 'builder' run -- a candidate who builds a base and hopes to finish 2nd this time and then maybe win next time.
Btw, I would make a couple of points in response to Stevo. First, while RFO finished 3rd in the Mayoral race, those were the results for the whole city -- in this race he is running just in Winnipeg Centre where he has worked as a community activist and is best known. Second, it sounds somewhat prejudiced to say that RFO will only appeal to the Aboriginal Community -- that seems to be labeling him by just his ethnicity. From what I've seen online, non-Aboriginals are supporting him, too.
15 08 02 R.O.
Pat Martin should be able to hold onto this one for the ndp , don't see liberals or conservatives making a serious run here . the riding is just too ndp friendly and current mp is well known.
15 04 23 Stevo
Get real. The Liberals are not going to go from barely 10% last time to victory this time on the coattails of a third-place former mayoral candidate. RFO may be impressive and will do well with the local aboriginal community, but that's only 10-15% of the riding's population. Pat Martin scored the best percentage result of his career in 2011, and that isn't about to turn to dust.
15 04 12 Marco Ricci
I would assume this riding is still leaning towards the NDP based on its NDP history and Pat Martin's incumbency.
However, the Federal NDP is currently running 3rd in Manitoba. Yesterday's EKOS poll (April 10, 2015) has Manitoba at 47% CPC, 30% LPC & 15% NDP.
With numbers like that, it is possible that we could see a closer than usual race here, with the NDP losing ground and the Liberals getting a surge of support.
While Pat Martin has been popular over the years, it's possible this could be one of those elections where a young, charismatic candidate like Robert Falcon-Ouelette taps into a desire for change.
He put himself on the public radar last fall with the Winnipeg Mayoral election, and he appears to have a base of support in this area and good organizing skills.
A couple of people below have referenced internal polls actually showing RFO ahead, which is quite interesting, so we'll have to wait until later in the year to see how this unfolds. Maybe the Manitoba pollsters will also do a riding poll for this area to give us some clues.
15 04 04 A.S.
It's only the Selinger-collateral-damage thing that makes Pat Martin borderline--and as for RFO, a 'strong losing' federal run might well pass for preparation for a provincial run (yeah, I know the Manitoba Grits have been a single-seat basket case lately, but who knows if Selingergate will raise *that* particular ship--with RFO as leader, perhaps?). Though conversely, if Pat Martin *does* fall federally, he could well fall upwards into becoming the next *provincial* NDP leader. Now, *that'd* be fun...
15 04 03 Logan Bobetsis
TCTC between NDP & LPC. Robert Falcon-Ouelette is probably one of the few people who could challenge Pat Martin for all the reasons mentioned by previous commenters. Most anyone else I'd say NDP hold, but as it is this could go NDP or LPC.
15 03 26 Locksley
Rumour has it that internal polling by both the orange and reds has RFO slightly in the lead. Pretty crazy thoughts but this is still Martin's to lose. For now I'll put the Falcon in the lead, for the sake of competition.
15 03 25 JC
I think the question with regards to this riding is basically how unpopular is the Greg Selinger NDP government? There's a very good chance the NDP could be shut out of Manitoba because of how utterly unpopular Selinger is in this province, I would be stunned if the Tories and Liberals did not take advantage of his unpopularity. Martin is still the favorite but the Liberals are running a very good candidate here and there is a chance Tory voters may vote Liberal in this riding to keep out Pat Martin, who is a bit of a loud mouth.
15 03 24 Greg
With Robert Falcon-Ouellette running for the Liberals, I don't think this is as much of a no brainer as usual. If the Conservative decline continues, I think this lower-income and more-FN than average riding will probably be affected more than, say, South-Centre or South. I think those votes will probably bleed to the Liberals, as of all the fringe parties to run in Centre - right-wing parties aren't among them.
RFO will probably increase the percentage of First Nations who vote, and will also resonate with the not insignificant student population in the riding. He has decent name recognition coming off his strong third-place finish in last year's Mayoral race, and I'm sure he saved his supporter lists and volunteer lists. Expect him to draw in his supporters from across the city to support him financially and on the ground.
If the Liberals are in strong minority territory or better, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see this riding go Red. A strong Conservative minority or better is what Pat has to be hoping for here, as that's the only way he remains safe for another term. The Leafs have a better chance at winning the cup this year than the Conservatives do at winning this riding.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
I would argue that this is both an NDP riding and a Pat Martin riding. That said, the Dippers will surely keep this riding.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Pat Martin is one of the best and most principled MPs in Canada, and more blunt and effective even than Elizabeth May. Easy hold. Winnipeg Centre has a champion and it would be foolish to lose him.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster