Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Winnipeg North

Prediction Changed
2015-04-25 12:15:33

Constituency Profile


Abad, Levy

Lamoureux, Kevin

Redekopp, John

Turka, Harpreet

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1250.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Winnipeg North
   (151/159 polls, 95.33% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kevin Lamoureux

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (8/159 polls, 4.67% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joy Smith


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15 09 13 Marco Ricci
Nick M., to answer your question about the Blaikie family, I don't think it's surprising that Dan Blaikie is running in Elmwood-Transcona rather than here. I don't think it has much to do with numbers in Winnipeg North (although NDP numbers are not looking good here). I think he is running in Elmwood-Transcona because that WAS Bill Blaikie's seat. Plus, with MP Jim Maloway having lost in 2011 to the Conservatives, that seat became open for a new NDP candidate. Maloway's loss meant he was beatable for the NDP nomination. I talked to a few NDP supporters who felt Maloway was a weak MP who let the seat slip away to the Conservatives. That paved the way for NDP voters in the nomination to send the message to Maloway to stay in provincial politics and not come back to the federal arena. That's why they chose Blaikie instead of Maloway.
15 09 11 Nick M.
24% of the district is Filipino. Don't know what percentage of that are eligible to vote. But my understanding was that contrary to belief, many Filipinos will vote socially conservative. But a Filipino candidate can change all that.
So if Conservative lose votes in this riding, it'll go to the NDP Filipino candidate.
The NDP being provincially unpopular does affect the Feds to some degree. But not to the extent if it was Ontario. Like Rae's Ontario definitely affected the NDP provincially and federally in the 93 election.
So if local posters say they see the NDP campaigning well in this riding, then I am giving it to the NDP.
Summary: cons will lose more votes to the NDP than Liberals here, provincial party not being popular is less detrimental than rumoured, local input in the next few weeks will tell me which party to call it.
Although I am leaning liberal.
(I am assuming that Blaikie Junior chose another riding because internal polls said this riding was harder to win?)
15 08 15 Locksley
Abad is neither the candidate that Chief nor Blaikie were. Even with some poll changes the NDP seem unlikely to take this back from Lamoureux who just always seems to win somehow.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
Yes, the Federal Liberal numbers are still decent in Manitoba right now. Plus, the NDP has the disadvantage of being weighed down to some extent by the unpopularity of the Selinger Government. A June 2015 Probe poll for Manitoba had the Pallister PC's at 46% and the Selinger NDP in a distant 2nd at 29% -- (17 points behind). That means that the Federal NDP could be affected.
As for Kevin Lamoureux himself, he was able to win the 2010 federal by-election as well as hold on in the 2011 election, as well as being able to get elected as a provincial Liberal MLA. So I don't see him going down yet. Levy Abad, the NDP candidate, is a Filipino singer, but I don't know if he's well-known enough to beat Lamoureux as Gillian posted below.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
It amazes me how little people pay attention to the polls, especially riding and regional polls. The Liberals are still doing better in the Prairies than last time and if Kevin Lamoureux can survive the Great Liberal Implosion of 2011, he can surely hold on to his seat with better polling numbers.
15 06 28 A.S.
Given the national swing, I'm increasingly skeptical about handing this one over to Lamoureux holus bolus--about the only thing potentially, unreservedly keeping it in his hands is the residual fact of the provincial government's name being mud. (But the thing I'm *really* puzzling over re 2011: how in blazes did the Cons hold on to over a quarter of the Winnipeg North vote?!? Then again, it was only 4 points over 2008; it's just by way of top-two-finisher accident that WN became a 3-way marginal.)
15 04 30 Gillian
The Liberal incumbent has too many social conservative beliefs and only won last time thanks to Filipino-Canadians in the riding supporting him. With the NDP running a popular Filipino-Canadian musician as their candidate, this riding should return to the NDP.
15 04 03 Logan Bobetsis
Lamoureux is very popular, won during a historically bad LPC election. Hold.
15 03 26 Locksley
Somehow Lamoureux is a rockstar in this neighbourhood, I'm not sure how he does it. Despite this, with the current polling numbers this locally popular backbencher seems like a shoe-in right now.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
In the worst election year ever for the Liberals, the daughter of the great Bill Blaikie could not unseat the Liberal incumbent. Why would anyone think that the NDP, with a candidate that doesn't hold a legacy last name, would unseat Lamoureux in a much better year? No, Lamoureaux will hold the seat, especially with the provincial NDP being so unpopular these days.
15 03 20 Fairview Resident
Despite Craig's personal feeling that Rebecca Blaikie is going to win this, she isn't - the NDP acclaimed folk singer Levy Abad as their candidate weeks ago. Kevin Lamoureux was personally popular enough to hold this riding in 2011 when the Liberals won 17% in MB. They're now at around 28%-38%, and likely ahead in Winnipeg. The NDP provincial government is the least popular in Canada, and will still be in place during the federal election. The NDP are simply in no position to take the Liberals' only seat in MB from a popular incumbent. The Conservatives, who won 54% in MB in 2011 and still placed third here, have lost ground in the province and will have their hands full holding what they have. Despite the 2011 results indicating a close race, this riding easily stays Liberal in 2015.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Kevin Lamoureux may be a placeholder between former MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis and future MP Rebecca Blaikie, daughter of the very popular Bill Blaikie.
I tend to think Blaikie was too young last time and lost in a squeaker (44 votes), but this time her campaign organization will be smart enough to round up Greens and get them to swap votes for Green pickups in Yukon, BC, etc... she'll close that margin by whatever means even in a Liberal surge.
That's just a personal feeling, though, and the national numbers say very different things, and the NDP has never been known to be smart electorally about focusing on seats they can win at the expense of those they cannot.

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