Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Confederation

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:06:47

Constituency Profile


Grant, Matt

Heuser, Kirk

Hunter, Kevan

Odd, Natalie

Webber, Len

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2010.40%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Calgary Centre-North
   (169/246 polls, 69.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Michelle Rempel

   Calgary West
   (58/246 polls, 23.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rob Anders

   Calgary-Nose Hill
   (19/246 polls, 7.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Diane Ablonczy


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15 10 17 South Islander
Liberals are trending upwards in Alberta and have reached about 30%. At those levels and with a concentration of support int he cities, they are going to have to win a few seats in Edmonton and Calgary. This has to be one of them. This riding has received a lot of attention recently as a horserace. The only poll done here had Matt Grant ahead by one, and the Liberals have risen since.
15 10 18 JC
I just can't see the Tories winning this riding, the liberals are projected to win 4 seats in Alberta and Matt Grant has just out worked Len Webber every step of the way, he's been at this riding for almost a year. Grant is going to win.
15 10 15 SaskPhoenix
I live in this riding and have had seen an upsurge in support for the Liberal candidate, Matt Grant. The numbers of Liberal lawn signs on private property is greater than the other parties' signs in most areas of Calgary-Confederation. People have had been talking about change quite a bit while doing errands or eating out - the mood for a different voice in Calgary has been getting stronger for the past year. Lastly, ThreeHundredEight has given the Liberals 65% chance of winning (with room to go up by election day) this riding. Expect Matt Grant to become the new Liberal MP for Calgary-Confederation come Tuesday morning.
15 10 04 John
One thing that will hurt the NDP here is the provincial government's commitment to a review of energy royalties. If voters are reading this the way I am, there is an increase in oil royalties in the cards, and that could hurt the oil patch. And Calgary is an oil town.
I don't think the Liberals will pick up enough support to take this riding from the Conservatives federally. While I don't think the National Energy Program will be the same bogeyman it used to be, a lot of older voters still remember Pierre Elliot Trudeau and the National Energy Program.
Also, the NDP and the Liberals tend to split the vote on the left. The Greens could bleed a bit of support on the left here too. That doesn't happen on the right where, federally, the Conservatives are the only party.
15 09 30 J. Ying
I live in this riding, and walk through the south end of it up to and past the Bow River to work, and then take transit through a busy north/south corridor every weekday. Matt Grant signs outnumber Len Webber signs by about a 2:1 margin on private property. Even on Crescent Road (what I believe to be the most expensive residential street in the N.W. quadrant of Calgary where ever home is a multi-million dollar property as it sits on a hill with a spectacular view of Downtown Calgary), red signs far outnumber blue ones on private property. Kirk Heuser was rather late to the game (with his signs popping up only a month ago) and Natalie Odd signs showing up about 2 weeks ago. I've noticed Len Webber beginning to cram his signs on public property in the past few weeks, which makes me think that he doesn't have enough demand to place his signs on private property (even former Alberta PC premier Jim Prentice, who lives on Crescent Road, doesn't have a Conservative sign on his lawn). In chatting with colleagues and friends who live in Calgary Foothills (where Len Webber was an MLA), few have anything positive to say about him, with only an initiative on organ donation to show for his decade in the Alberta legislature. The new boundaries of this riding include left leaning areas such as Varsity and the area surrounding/including the University of Calgary (formerly part of Calgary West) as well as places such as Inglewood/Kensignton/Hillhurst where many young professionals live. Not a runaway, but I see all the momentum in the riding with the Liberals, with the Conservative candidate barely treading water at the moment -- enough for me to call this for the Liberals.
15 09 29 A.S.
I've claimed in the past that this was the (old-model) Trinity-Spadina to Calgary Centre's Toronto Centre, i.e. more NDP, less Liberal. However, this also happens to encompass Calgary-Mountain View, the provincial bastion of Alta Lib leader David Swann--and in a funny way, the disaster his party endured in the last election might have turned him into an even *more* beloved figure locally. So if the Grits seem to have the upper hand to the point where they're actually likelier to win CalCon than CalCen: there you have it...
15 09 20 Tony Ducey
Liberals win here, still some left over disdain with the provincial PC's that will lead to a Webber loss.
15 09 21 Monkey Cheese
The polling from Conservative friendly pollster Mainstreet seems to be showing the statistical tie I reported earlier. If a pollster that frequently overestimates Conservative support has them in a tie with the Liberals, then they have to be in trouble in this riding. This is a riding that should be a Conservative hold, but this is post-Rachel Notely win era. She proved that Conservatives can be defeated in their heartland. If that poll is accurate, then I agree with Michael that the 'Anyone But Harper' crowd will rally behind Matt Grant. Polling data and lack of an incumbent has this with a Liberal edge, but with this being Calgary, it could still end up being a Conservative hold. It isn't as stronger Liberal gain like Calgary Skyview. That's why we really need more riding polls for close ones like this, so TCTC is probably the right call until the final days of the campaign.
15 09 18 R.O.
I also saw the poll from Mainstreet. This is one of those ridings that has the potential to get interesting as its downtown Calgary and has no incumbent. But even if it gets interesting it might still stay conservative. Conservative candidate Len Webber is a former mla and held a provincial riding in Calgary for a number of years. liberal candidate Matt Grant is relatively new to politics from what I have seen . still a month to go so see how race plays out here
15 09 19 Michael
With a month to go to the election, this one still belongs in the 'too to call' category especially given the recent riding level poll that shows the Conservatives and Liberals neck and neck. My neighbourhood and those next to it are full of Liberal (Matt Grant) lawn signs, with the very occasional NDP sign. No Conservative signs anywhere (shy Tories ?). However, other parts of the riding are a different story, with lots of Len Webber (CON) signs in view. Particularly true for the part of the riding just south of John Laurie/McKnight. The NDP had quite a few viable candidates contesting the nomination, which was won by Kirk Heuser, a journalist. But because they had to do this quite late, due to the election of Stephanie MacLean, the previous candidate for Calgary Confederation, to the Provincial Legislature in Calgary Varsity. Because they were late to the field, I just don't think the NDP can make up the gap, especially with all three parties running neck and neck federally. I expect the 'anyone but Harper' vote to coalesce around Matt Grant, who has been on the ground and working hard for a long time. I just don't know if it will be enough to win this for the Liberals. I suspect not.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to a new Mainstreet riding poll posted by journalist David Akin, the Liberals & Conservatives are tied here, with the NDP 3rd:
Mainstreet | CALGARY?CONFEDERATION Decided voters | #CPC 37% | #LPC 38% | #NDP 19% | #GPC 4% | IVR n=679 Sep 14
15 09 12 Teddy Boragina
An update on my earlier projection
First - I was not trying to say the NDP would win, only that (at the then current polling levels) that the NDP was more likely to win than the Liberals.
Second - polls have changed. Even when I made my first projection, the Tories had the edge. They not only retain that edge, but it has grown. And, importantly, the Liberals now *can* win this riding.
Last - The Tories will likely win, even if the NDP and/or Liberals increase in the polls, but, if they do not, this riding could go either Liberal, or NDP.
15 09 12 Canadian Election Atlas
The non-Conservative vote will be too fractured here to allow any of them to win. The Conservative vote can drop to 40%, and still win this seat. The Greens saw a strong result here in 2011, so will be gunning for it; the Liberals are running a strong campaign; and the NDP has legitimacy as the provincial government.
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
This is not a riding that will go Liberal, if anything, it would go NDP.
15 08 24 BC predictor
I still see this as a strongish CPC riding. increased density helps the other parties but I don't think that the people living in the newer towers necessarily lived outside the riding before moving there. I really don't see this as a swing seat
15 08 21 MTC
Its a new riding so its a tough call. Its Calgary so already you have to assume the Tories will do well, but then again the NDP are polling high with academics and students at the moment, higher than Liberals with academics and the highly which is has not always been the case.
At this point three way race would be a good call, but the way things are swinging I think Conservative or NDP are more likely outcomes this time around. Polls aside, when the time comes to vote progressives are going to swing NDP or Liberal in a wave and my money is on NDP to be the recipient if they maintain their overall lead.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Unlike Calgary Center, this is a much closer threeway race. Of course these numbers could always change, but right now they are favouring the Liberals. Michelle Rempel is not running here, so there is no incumbency bump for the Conservatives, but they are likely to take advantage of vote splitting. However, from what I've heard the Liberal candidate is a strong campaigner and has already knocked on thousands of doors in the riding. That should boost the Liberal fortunes here along with strategic voting.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
The polling is showing a statistical tie here, but Matt Grant is a strong and fearless candidate. He is a hard worker and has been campaigning tirelessly for months. I think that will be enough to tip this riding over to the Liberals, especially if the Conservatives keep losing ground in Alberta.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
It will be interesting to see how Len Webber's CPC candidacy will play here. Webber was the first MLA to quit Redford's caucus, and bring down her reign. How his constituents feel about that move may affect whether he wins or loses. It will be between Webber and the LPC candidate.
15 06 07 Michael
I would still call this one too close. Since Stephanie MacLean was elected as the MLA for Calgary Varsity, the NDP does not (yet) have a candidate as far as I know. Parts of this riding voted quite heavily for John Chan (NDP) in the past, and also for Joe Clark over Reform at one point. I live in this riding and keep getting redistributed (our house was in Calgary Centre, then Calgary West, now Confederation). I would certainly not be surprised by a conservative win, but this is one either the Liberals or NDP could win with a strong, hard-working candidate, especially if that party is showing signs of taking off 5 months from now.
15 04 26 Docere
Urban Albertans appear to be trending away from voting like Albertans and more like urban voters. The Liberals are in contention here and this is a riding to watch.
15 04 24 Stevo
This riding includes the trendy and up-and-coming Kensington district with lots of young Ontario and BC expats on the north shore of the Bow River, as well as both the University of Calgary and SAIT. Areas north of downtown in general tend to be less conservative (by Alberta standards) than points south. All that put together, I consider Calgary-Confed even more likely that Calgary-Centre to elect a non-Conservative, though barring a candidate gaffe of some sort, the ridings will probably go as a twofer (either both Conservative, or both Liberal; NDP not likely in these parts however that 14% Green Party tally should not go unnoticed).
15 03 31 Fairview Resident
This is one of three ridings that threehundredeight.com is predicting will go Liberal (with 71% confidence). The Tories have nominated former PC MLA Len Webber, and the Liberals a young lawyer Matt Grant who has been hard at work trying to win this riding for over a year. Whether it will go Liberal or Tory will depend on the momentum of the national and provincial campaigns, but probably TCTC at this point.
15 03 29 monkey
If the Liberals are to pick up any seats in Calgary, this seems like a good one to go after, but I would still give the Tories the edge since if you look at past elections, Tory support has been fairly consistent here and although the Liberals are doing better in Alberta, in the past its been Edmonton not Calgary where they've gained seats.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Matt Grant has really been working this riding hard, this is one of only three seats in the city of Calgary that have a shot at flipping. You can bet the Liberals will want to take a seat in the city of Calgary and this has a good chance of going Red.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
While probably going to be a CPC hold, this is one where the Liberals have a shot. Calgary has a significant undertone of Liberal support which seems to be starting to manifest itself. Threehundredeight is suggesting that this riding will go Liberal 39% to 31%. While I'm not so certain, and believe that having former MLA Len Webber as a candidate will help the CPC, I can't help but suspect that this race will be far more interesting than those in the past.

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