Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Nose Hill


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:27:26
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Butt, Faizan

Gao, Edward

Kaufman, Bruce

Prcic, Robert

Rempel, Michelle

Scheer, Laurie


Population/populations
(2011 census)

109286


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2914369.29%
537712.78%
464611.05%
28386.75%
Other 590.14%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Calgary-Nose Hill
   (111/200 polls, 65.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Diane Ablonczy
18888
3222
3133
1433


   Calgary Centre-North
   (87/200 polls, 34.45% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Michelle Rempel
10255
2155
1513
1405
Other59


   Wild Rose
   (2/200 polls, 0.02% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Blake Richards



 


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15 09 29 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Rempel probably read the tea leaves of *potential* trouble (well, by Calgary standards, at least pre-Notley) in her previous seat; so, as a young CPC up-and-comer, why not be Ablonczy's heir instead. Though one can offer the 'you can run but you can't hide' argument that most of this territory went Notley NDP--or at least one could have, back in May. (A pretty desperate stretch, if you ask me.)
15 09 23 R.O.
24.146.23.226
Former mp Diane Ablonczy held this riding for a long time but retired this year. Its historically been a conservative part of Calgary . conservative candidate and mp Michelle Rempel has also managed to get better known during her time in ottawa and that should help.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
24.114.68.55
Michelle Rempel, the popular CPC MP, has switched to this riding. She is well liked even across the aisle. The Liberals, who would probably have the best chance at taking this riding, is running a University student. It's hard to see a riding which voted 70% for the Conservatives going to another party.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
Michelle Rempel is pretty well known Tory MP, also it's Calgary and it's not Sykview, Confederation or Centre. It's a Tory Hold.



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