Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Riverbend

Prediction Changed
2015-09-16 10:33:52

Constituency Profile


Chaudary, Tariq

Fleck, Brian

Jeneroux, Matt

Kennedy, Valerie

Lack, Steven

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (184/184 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

James Rajotte


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15 10 10 Teddy Boragina
Some polls from the past week are showing the Liberals are on a sudden uptick in Alberta, and those that cross-tab their results, are showing more and more people who voted NDP provincially are switching to the Liberals federally.
If this is all true - and there remains some doubt it is, and, time to reverse it - ridings like this one will go Liberal.
15 09 29 A.S.
Given Riverbend's demos and recent patterns, I'm surprised the NDP's polling that *high* according to Environics--is it because it's an open seat, or is it a reflection of Mulcair's bid for business-class cred?
15 09 23 Lolitha
Riding Poll by Environics Conservatives 44 NDP 34 Liberals 18
15 09 02 R.O.
This was conservative mp James Rajotte's old riding . but even with him not running for re-election its still a riding the conservatives have done well in and they continue to poll well in alberta. there also isn't the same dynamic federally we saw provincially and no right of centre wildrose/pc vote split. However Matt Jeneroux isn't that well known but neither is the ndp or liberal candidates here. ndp have potential in Edmonton however this isn't a riding they have done that well in but I'd say too close to call for time being
15 08 26 Jeff S
With new Insights West poll showing Conservatives at 58% in the province, have to pick the Cons to win this.
15 08 20 Laurence Putnam
New Democrats in Alberta have gone absolutely bananas and let their recent provincial victory go right to their heads. They don't seem to understand that there is a big difference between the provincial issues and the federal issues. Also, a divided right in Alberta, which together took 52% of the vote in the province, is united at the federal level. Conversely, a much stronger federal Liberal party will surely best the low-single digit performance proffered by the provincial Alberta Liberals. This is also not to mention that the first poll taken since the election already has the Alberta NDP down to 30%, not yet six months into their mandate. Don't drink the flavour-aid (the actual brand used at Jonestown, where the reference comes from, not Kool Aid) the Tories' 59% will not be so easily overturned.
15 08 04 John
I wouldn't call this a safe Conservative seat.
The provincial PCs ran a prominent candidate in the provincial Edmonton Riverbend constituency in the form of three time Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel. And Mandel got slaughtered. The provincial NDP steamrollered him.
Now, James Rajotte has decided not to run again. So the federal Conservatives don't have incumbency advantage either.
While I think this will be a close race, I'll go out on a limb and suggest this might be an NDP win.
15 07 15 Jack Cox
Well Rajotte retired and Edmonton en masse voted for the NDP in the last provincial election, I have to think they are favored.
15 06 14 Mr. Dave
James Rajotte has just announced that he won't be running in the next election.
All of the polling the Conservatives have been doing must be showing that Edmonton M.P.s are in danger of being defeated, so he's grabbing his 15-year pension and getting out while he can.
NDP pick-up!
15 04 10 Dr.Bear
I disagree with the assertion that this is safely in Conservative hands. While this is certainly the Conservatives to lose, the threehundredeight polling aggregate is showing this is another riding where the liberals are only down by only 5%. Would be a shame to lose Rajotte. I hear he's one of the most respectable CPC MPs. We need more like him.
15 03 29 monkey
Of the Edmonton seats, this is the most Conservative as its the most affluent area so even if the Tories lose all their other Edmonton seats asides from the more rural Wetaskiwin-Edmonton, they will hold this one.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This is a James Rajotte seat, it might be competitive if and when he retires but I can't see him losing this.

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