Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton West

Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:28:05

Constituency Profile


Bryan, Pamela Leslie

Dussault, Alexander

Leibovici, Karen

MacKenzie, Heather

McCauley, Kelly

Morton, Peggy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 730.19%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (138/184 polls, 80.58% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Rona Ambrose

   Edmonton Centre
   (46/184 polls, 19.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Laurie Hawn


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15 10 13 South Islander
I'm not convinced this is an easy Tory win. A local poll put Leibovici 19 points behind nearly a month ago. But a more recent poll has shown the Liberals are not far behind in the city: http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/poll-federal-conservative-party-leading-in-alberta If the NDP are likely to win Strathcona and Griesbach while Edmonton Centre is a close contest, then where is this Liberal vote? My guess is that a chunk of it is in the riding formerly held by Anne McLellan with a former MLA and recent mayoral runner up as the candidate. Plus, momentum has shifted against the NDP and in favour of the Liberals in the past few weeks. If the Liberals can gain a little more at Tory expense in Alberta, I think they'll win here.
15 09 28 A.S.
It's Leibovici, more than any generic 'NDP-incompatibility', that renders this an atypical Edmonton Lib-Con race. And it's also because of that that the traditional Albertan Con-allegiance is less likely to shift--darned Orange Chinook skewing the picture, grumble grumble.
15 09 23 Lolitha
Local poll by Environics (Sept 15/16) Conservatives 48 Liberal 29 NDP 19
15 09 18 John
I was out walking along 87th Avenue the other day. This is a main thoroughfare in west Edmonton. I kept seeing Karen Liebovici sign after Karen Liebovici sign. So the Liberals are alive and well and putting up a fight in this riding.
I'll keep my opinion as too close to call for now, but the race seems to be more Liberal Conservative than NDP Conservative.
15 08 27 John

I'm seeing some McCauley lawn signs out in the riding now. But nobody else's so far.
If Karen Liebovici and the Liberals are going to take this riding, they will need to show more life than I am seeing. After all, Liebovici is a high profile candidate, and if anybody is going to take this riding from the Conservatives, it is her.
15 07 30 John
Karen Liebovici is both a former Alberta Liberal MLA and Edmonton city counsellor. She also ran for Mayor in the last Edmonton municipal election. While I'd have to double check the numbers, in the race for mayor she placed either second or third. So she is a high profile candidate with a lot of political experience.
So there is a chance this riding might go Liberal.
15 07 15 Jack Cox
This is definitely not as much of a lock for the Tories as it was before, if the NDP regionals are in line with the provincials this is easily their's.
15 04 10 Dr.Bear
While this is certainly the Conservatives to lose, the threehundredeight polling aggregate is showing the liberals down by only 5%.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Safest Edmonton seat for the Tories, they'll hold it easily.

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