Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:14:31

Constituency Profile


Capp, Geoffrey

Harder, Rachael

Krygier-Paine, Solly

MacMillan, Kas

Meheden, Cheryl

Pyne, Mike

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 16143.92%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (231/231 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jim Hillyer


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
Conservatives are winning Lethbridge by a 2-1 margin over the NDP according to today's Mainstreet poll.
This riding is now out of reach for the NDP.
They would need to be on their way to a Government and leading Nationally like they were earlier in the year to be able to win this.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Alberta Federation of Labour [edited] poll still showed CPC with a large lead in this riding. Harder is safe.
15 09 23 Lolitha
Riding poll by Environics (Sept 15-18) Conservatives 48 NDP 34 Liberals 14 Greens 5
15 09 19 Shapes
Ben Fox is probably referring to the Unionist Party that formed government after the 1917 election, which was actually led by Robert Borden and consisted of a coalition of Conservatives and Liberals who had split with Laurier over Conscription. It was, however, at it's core a Conservative government supported by opposition members for the sake of the First World War, so it still holds true that only Liberal and Conservative parties have formed government at the federal level since 1867.
15 09 16 Kyle H
I'm not sure what Ben Fox is talking about - there has never been a non-Liberal or non-Conservative government federally. You may want to check the credentials of whatever site or person you looked that up with.
At any rate, Lethbridge - the best chance for an outside-YEG riding for the NDP, or a hopeless hill for the party to die on? While there was massive movement provincially to the NDP here, provincial numbers don't necessarily mean anything; and Lethbridge, while a target, doesn't have a strong history for non-Conservatives. It flew way past the Liberals in the '93 sweep, and in 2004 when the LPC was still doing decent in Alberta, they ran the most popular guy they could find - Lethbridge-East MLA Ken Nicol, who won strong majorities even as the ALP vote collapse in 97 & 01 - and managed a paltry 22%.
While the NDP scored a good 30% last time out under the new boundaries (though thats a bare uptick from 27% they got under the old boundaries), they did so against a new and somewhat fluffy Conservative candidate - this time, the Conservative candidate (Harder) seems stronger (from what I've gathered online - of course not necessarily a valid sample!). Sure, the NDP have a stronger candidate with Meheden but look above - it would be an excruciating uphill climb, maybe one not worth the resources if they have easier targets in Edmonton or even Calgary.
Again, its a target, but I wouldn't place my bets with the NDP taking it, not at all. TCTC is the right call for sure.
15 09 13 Ben Fox
One would think it easier for Lethbridge to turn NDP orange on the federal level than the provincial. The NDP winning both Lethbridge ridings at the provincial level makes this the sole southern Alberta NDP victory on what should be an historic election night for the first non-Liberal non-Conservative government formed in probably a hundred years (just looked it up, it's 98 years).
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
In the last election, the NDP manage to double their vote in this riding. There was a reason for that, and that is actually a simple reason; the Conservative candidate was terrible.
Yes the NDP does have a history in the City, and yes the NDP will do rather well, but the pure math is being skewed by how awful of a candidate Jim Hillyer was. I do not see this riding going NDP, but, I could be wrong.
15 08 26 Jeff S
With new Insights West poll showing Conservatives at 58% in the province, have to pick the Cons to win this.
15 08 24 BC predictor
We're getting a little too bullish on the NDP in Alberta. They'll pick up some seats in Edmonton but Lethbridge is a bridge too far. CPC hold
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
NDP call is premature. This is a long campaign and Conservatives have a lot of money and reach in Alberta. Also the NDP is now the provincial govt and in position to start to alienate people in time for the October 19 election.
There's always a degree of reaction and punishment of the ruling provincial party, rightly or wrongly, in the next federal election, and vice versa. A Liberal in this riding also might swing Conservative for provincial reasons - say blocking the NDP from creating a long term dynasty at both levels.
Greens nominated a student so vote splits for them are not a big factor.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This should probably be moved to the NDP for three reasons:
1 They received more votes than the united right in both ridings provincially
2 Polling aggregate Threehundredeight is giving the NDP an 81% win confidence in Lethbridge
3 The NDP are polling extremely well in Alberta. The latest Forum Research poll (as of August 7) puts them at 36% in Alberta, 6 points behind the Conservatives
Don't be surprised when Lethbridge finally turns orange.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
308 is showing the NDP winning here with an 81% confidence. They have a good organization in Lethbridge, which is a much less rural area in Alberta than the other non Calgary and Edmonton ridings. As other posters have pointed out, the NDP won here provincially by a large margin and I think that momentum will carry them federally to win this seat.
15 08 03 Justin
The NDP got more than a united right did in the provincial, so leaning towards a pickup.
15 08 02 John
The Globe and Mail recently did an op ed piece on ridings in Alberta the Conservatives might lose. And if memory serves me right, this was one of them.
It might be tight, but without two parties splitting the vote on the right like in the recent provincial election, I think this will be a Conservative hold.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This should be a Conservative hold. The NDP was strong here in 2011 over the unpopularity of the CPC candidate, who skipped debates and was uninvolved with the riding. Harder has been more involved with the riding. The NDP will finish a strong second again, but will not win.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
If you look at the results of the provincial election, the NDP won a plurality of votes in both Lethbridge ridings. The NDP continue to rise and the Conservatives continue to fall in Alberta. Lethbridge is easily their best chance of an Alberta seat outside of Edmonton. The current numbers are suggesting a NDP pickup and I'm inclined to agree.
15 05 19 bza
The NDP have become quite organized and built up a lot of support and infrastructure in Lethbridge over the past couple of years.
In the recent provincial election both seats went NDP with the plurality of the vote being greater than the conservative vote.
Its too soon to tell whether the federal NDP will make roads into Calgary and other ridings. But with some real on the ground support, volunteers, and some serious resources, I think this is one of 4 seats that the NDP has a real shot of picking up.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
With the Conservatives down and the NDP up in Alberta, this is a riding that the NDP should be able to take. The NDP swept both seats provincially in Lethbridge and the Liberals won't be a factor here. They don't even have a candidate yet. Threehundredeight has the NDP winning here with a 73% chance. Those are pretty good odds for them.
'Date' 1 A.S.
All potential Notleymania repercussions aside, one must remember that the 2011 Conservative figure was significantly dampered by Jim Hillyer's notorious 'invisible man' bid to replace Rick Casson--he lost 10 points over 2008, all and a little bit more of which went to NDP--of course, this being Alberta, the remaining 'yellow dog' CPC support was still enough to top 50% even within the present, more Lethbridge-centric boundaries. Then again, the repercussions of Hillyer's campaign and parliamentary performance (and current redistribution-of-self to Medicine Hat) are just about the perfect 'why do you want to keep this charade going?' platform to enact a federal-echo Orange Chinook upon--and the 2011 figure indicates that yes, that's the one clear direction Lethbridgeans are prepared to take. (Indeed, the NDP already overperformed here by Alberta-bottom-feeder standards in '06 and '08; though one'd *really* have to be a hardcore and farsignted psephologist to come to that conclusion--still, it begat 2011; and who knows what 2011 will beget in 2015.)
15 04 26 Mr. Dave
A major upset is in the making should the provincial election results play out here in Lethbridge.
With the NDP poised to take one, if not both seats provincially, the carryover in the federal election will make this a seat to watch.
This should go back to T.C.T.C. at least for the moment.
15 04 09 Dr. Bear
Okay, what's going on in Alberta? Threehundredeight's polling aggregate is suggesting this is now an NDP/CPC toss up with the edge to the NDP. While I'm not ready to suggest some prairie orange wave, I'm keeping a watch on a race that has never peaked my curiosity in the past.
15 04 12 Stevo
I didn't realize how robust the NDP was in the last election here (when redistributed). Makes sense considering that redistribution chopped off a very large rural section to the south, leaving a much larger majority of the riding's population within the city of Lethbridge. Will be interesting to see how the results of the upcoming Alberta election (and I think it is shaping up to be something historic) impact the federal election. I can't quite see the NDP making the leap to actually winning Lethbridge just yet, but you never know. Decades of Conservative hegemony in Alberta may have been like a coiled spring that when finally released will yield surprises even in non-Edmonton/non-Calgary Alberta.
15 04 14 JC
Lethbridge has a very good chance of going to the NDP, it tips towards them just barely, the NDP also in my opinion has the better candidate. The University of Lethbridge is also located in this riding and Janis Irwin was one of the first NDP candidates selected in Canada. While this is an Conservative riding if any seat in Rural Alberta goes away from the Tories this is the one. The Alberta NDP is poised to win at least one of the Lethbridge seats in the provincial election and the left in Alberta has it's act together more so then in any other province as they will want to get rid of as many tories as possible.
15 04 08 Expat
The 308 projection website now puts this as the 3rd Alberta seat likely going NDP based on poll aggregations.
It tips NDP barely, so is at least worth changing the projection for Lethbridge to TCTC for now.
15 03 29 monkey
With a large university population, I wouldn't be surprised if either the NDP or Liberals win Lethbridge, but the problem is the Tories rack up obscenely large margins in the rural parts never mind the surrounding rural areas are part of Alberta's bible belt so as long as the riding includes some rural areas, that will kill any chances of any other party winning here. Once Lethbridge gets large enough for its own riding, then other parties may have a chance at winning here.
15 03 23 JW
While a selected few (very few, if any) ridings in Edmonton or even Calgary may end up being competitive at some point of the campaign, rural Alberta will continue to be solid Conservative territory. Remember, the last time rural Alberta returned a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP was 1968 (two that election, and one of them started with the Social Credits).

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