Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan

Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:28:17

Constituency Profile


Burry, Stephen C.

Cave, Joanne

Ford, James

Frank, Rod

Genuis, Garnett

Harrop, Brandie

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1448628.79%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (150/196 polls, 78.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Tim Uppal

   (46/196 polls, 21.36% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Leon Benoit


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15 10 12 CH
James Ford did quite well here in 2008 and 2011, and I would not be surprised if he keeps most of those voters. The Conservatives, however, have been falling constantly for a while now in Alberta, and although they seem to have stabilized they have stabilized at a number that can't be doing them any favours here. I think Genuis will win, but a no-name person to replace Tim Uppal may be enough to tip the scales. I wouldn't count James Ford out yet.
15 09 22 Teddy Boragina
Jimmy Ford could well take 20% of the vote, or even 30%.
Despite that, the Tories will win here.
15 09 06 R.O.
This is an open riding with no incumbent as Tim Uppal has decided to run in another Edmonton riding. Garnett Genuis is the new conservative candidate . there is also a strong independent candidate for this riding as James Ford is back and he got around 30% of the vote when he ran before. but its still a pretty reliable conservative area of alberta and they should be able to hold this riding.
15 08 29 A.S.
It's weird how while all the other Edmonton-era seats have been rife with Notley-spurred what-ifs, nobody's chimed in here on the possibility of Super Genuis being reduced to 'allow me to introduce myself, my name is mud' Though the chances are admittedly slender--maybe if there was more Fort Sask than Sherwood Park, but, hey, y'know. (Yet paradoxically, this territory *did* see interesting 2008/2011 contests, with independent James Ford posting a stiff challenge to Tim Uppal--indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if Ford actually beat Uppal within these boundaries in 2008.)
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Safe Suburban-Rural seat in Alberta, it will easilly go Blue.

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