Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Cloverdale-Langley City

Prediction Changed
2015-03-16 22:45:51

Constituency Profile


Aldag, John

Anderson, Scott

Drysdale, Dean

Smith, Rebecca

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5801.54%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (60/163 polls, 37.11% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Russ Hiebert

   (67/163 polls, 33.47% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mark Warawa

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (36/163 polls, 29.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Nina Grewal


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 07 A,S,
A patchwork new riding; but only in geography, not in allegiance--it's seats like these that the HarperCons have banked their eternal elected rule on. And despite 308-ish scares along the way, it looks like it's headed the direction it was designed for; so, make way for all the Beverly Hillbillies jokes about Mr. Drysdale...
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
A classic split NDP-Liberal vote, so even it hands this to the Cons with so much margin that it isn't even worth it to organize any vote swapping.
These very evenly split ridings tend to stay evenly split through several elections as neither the NDP nor the Liberals will give them up. Another example of this on the other coast is South Shore St. Margaret's which Gerald Keddy held with a much lower margin but similarly split opponents.
15 08 26 Garth
With recent polls indicating that the Conservatives are at half the support in the last election in BC, ridings like this one are no longer safe. While I would not predict an NDP win here as it is too far from the election date, I think predicting a Conservative win is just as iffy at this point. If strategic voting as proposed by some anti-Conservative organizations takes place, look for NDP's to vote Liberal in the Toronto suburbs and Liberals/Greens to vote NDP in ridings like this one.
15 08 07 Laurence Putnam
For the Conservatives to lose this, they'd have to be below 60-70 seats nationally. Not gonna happen.
15 08 02 PHYSASTR Master
This seems to be the sort of riding that on exceptional years seems to flirt with other parties, only to go Conservative at the end of the day. Will this year be different? I really don't know, but losing Langley township will undoubtedly help the opposition parties. Enough to make the Cons lose? I'm not convinced yet, but if the NDP hits 43% in BC, which looks entirely possible at this point, this seat will start looking like a battleground. Edge still to the Cons, but I'd say TCTC for now.
15 07 17 Dr Bear
Have been watching the numbers and the NDP are surging! They're only behind the CPC by 3% in this riding. Who would have thought! Can this hold? Time will tell.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
This riding is CPC...for now....
I'm looking at the numbers and the NDP are creeping up slowly. Who would have thought?
15 03 21 Brian A
My dad's riding. From the time I've spent here, there's just no other avenue but Conservative. Rodeo-riding, cowboy-hat-wearing, Baptist-bible-thumping Conservative.
15 03 16 JW
Heart of BC's bible belt. Would be apocalyptic (no pun intended) if the Conservatives lose this one.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster