Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:15:13

Constituency Profile


D'Eith, Bob

Murray, Mike

Ranta, Steve

Ruimy, Dan

Tam, Peter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
   (163/163 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Randy Kamp


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15 10 07 A.S.
Breaking off Mission makes this ever more authentically a 'Greater Vancouver' seat at the reachable outer edge of the NewWestBurquitlam orange blob--but there has been a recent pattern of the NDP being foiled at whatever juncture. Dippers in a clear BC lead (as in certain not-so-long-ago polls) would have handed this to them; but right now, it looks more borderline between D'Eith and d'eath, as you'd expect when you've inherited a notional 20% 2011 shortfall.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
Still a close race but I believe the NDP slide will not affect ridings where they are leading nearly as much. Artist/musician candidates also have a lot of ways to get media attention and steal focus in the last two weeks of a campaign, even the last days, so I don't count them out early.
With combined Liberal+Green vote projected to be under 25%, a six point NDP lead over Conservative is close enough to bring out the tactical vote and make this a viable swap target. The NDP needs this seat very badly and even NDP core supporters might be willing to vote Green in Victoria or Esquimault if they have a friend in Maple Ridge or Pitt Meadows who would usually vote Green. The parties hate it, but informal swaps among friend and family swing far more ridings to the leading ABC candidate than anyone admits. I think this has more effect than 'voting for the winner', even.
So while this call may be premature I'm going to lay it down anyway and see who disagrees. Any NDP dip in a riding level poll here is just going to cause more NDP donations, volunteers and vote swaps to pour in to hold.
And no one is better at getting that kind of support than a musician who plays fundraisers...
15 09 23 Jeff S
NDP leading Conservatives by 6 according to Insights West. But still too close to make a call.
15 09 01 R.O.
Since my last post Mike Murray has been nominated as the new conservative candidate for this riding , defeating bc liberal mla Marc Dalton for the nomination.
There was also a poll from angus reid released august 26 and it had regional numbers and polled around 800 voters in bc. The ndp was leading however not by a significant margin . there numbers for bc were 37 ndp , 32 cpc and 22 liberal. At those numbers the conservatives would still be able to hold many of there historical ridings considering much of the ndp support is in metro Vancouver and Vancouver island. This riding is likely too close to call
15 08 03 Jan
The NDP came close in the 2004 and 2006 elections with Mike Blocking as their candidate. Look for the surging NDP to take this riding with well-known Canadian pianist Bob D'Eith as their candidate.
15 07 26 R.O.
Its true current mp Randp Kamp isn't running again for the conservatives. But numbers from 2011 still give a big advantage to cpc here as we must remember ndp numbers had surged in 2011 election and yet they still were 20% back here although there were closer elections in 04 and 06 in this riding. This area is more of a suburban riding and not as urban as Vancouver ridings and I suspect conservatives still remain competitive here although riding might be too close to call for time being.
15 07 06 Poll reviewer
308.com has this riding at 80% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
BC is massively swinging towards the NDP. Currently threehundredeight is calling this for the NDP (46.8% for the NDP vs 33.6% for the CPC with 78% confidence). If numbers hold this will be an NDP gain.
15 03 29 monkey
I would definitely give the Conservatives the edge here, but the NDP unlike on the south side of the Fraser River is quite competitive so an NDP win will not likely is still possible, especially if you get a lot of strategic voting.
15 03 25 Dr. Bear
While it's been a Conservative riding for quite some time, the NDP have made this race interesting in the past. With an open seat and CPC numbers down, I think the NDP will make it interesting again. Whether they win it or not is yet to be seen.

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