Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:45:43

Constituency Profile


Biggar, Elizabeth

Blackman, Barry

Dickie, Kathi

Keller, W. Todd

Shaw, Matt

Zimmer, Bob

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4211.07%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Prince George-Peace River
   (218/220 polls, 98.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bob Zimmer

   (2/220 polls, 1.49% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Cathy McLeod


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15 09 06 Laurence Putnam
Spot on analysis by AS - though the big difference between Notley (and I am likewise dubious of there being any 'spillover' at all) is attitude towards pipelines. Parts of this riding were very possible NDP seats in the lead up to the 2013 BC campaign, except that Adrian Dix came out very strongly against pipelines, which the folks in this area want to see very badly. Likewise, Mulcair's stance is not going to be welcome news here. Lots of deer and moose hunters up here who are grateful to the Conservatives for action on sensible gun policies. I don't see the Conservatives getting less than 50% here. NDP will do well, but ultimately the people of this riding aren't going to throw their lot in with either one of two left wing Montrealers.
15 07 11 A.S.
Really, if one wanted to alleviate things for the NDP in Prince George, it'd be to create a more squarely Prince George-centric riding rather than splitting it on behalf of two 'rurban' configurations--this one being the more hostile, where the Prince George polls are but a rump presence within a seat defined by 1996's sole BC Reform stronghold. Though right now, there may be some countervailing Peace River Notleymania-spillover faint hope--*real* faint. Not enough that I'd withdraw a CPC prediction, but enough that I'd *consider* it.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
The BC interior has been one of the great sleeper regions for the NDP, but this riding seems to be bucking the trend. According to the current numbers, this will be a blue seat with a whole load of orange neighbors.
15 03 28 BJ
Another interior BC riding whereby resource development is a major issue - forestry, mining, natural gas service sector for NE BC. Again, the BC NDP were negatively stigmatized as anti-resource development during the 2013 BC election and that stigma persists. Will further impact the federal NDP in 2015 with some shift to the Liberals. Does not matter as the CPC will undoubtedly hold this seat.
15 03 24 Philly D.
The eastern part of this riding, east of the Rockies, is basically rural Alberta, and elected a Reform MLA in 1996. That tells you all you need to know.

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