Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Richmond Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:33:05

Constituency Profile


Chiu, Vincent

Trovato, Jack

Wong, Alice

Woo, Lawrence

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (171/171 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Alice Wong


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15 10 14 poljunkiebc
There is enough of a surge to project this for the Liberals now. Not by a huge margin, and despite certain ads in the Chinese language media. This used to go Liberal but the CPC now has an established brand in much of Richmond. It will be close, but should eke over to the Liberals.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
Likely to further push this Liberal, there's a well-publicized live vote swap meet in Vancouver Thursday (Thornton Park, 5:30PM) so that Greens living here have the opportunity to swap for a more useful vote in a nearby riding, and NDP here have the opportunity to pitch an NDP vote to Granville voters who really prefer to see all Cons gone. Vancouver could flush all Cons into the Pacific, in fact the BC coast could be free of them entirely, with only a few thousand swappers.
Any Liberal that wants the federal Liberals to take over the moderate right wing and flush the old Reform/Alliance/Conservative party into the toilet for good, should go for any swap that bans all Cons from the coast. It turns the federal Liberals into the BC Liberal Party, esp if the Harper Cons are also banned from the Atlantic and the Arctic coasts.
This is a very strategic riding and Liberals should focus on it, and basically swap out to get Liberal supporters in places like Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam (going NDP) and Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge (going NDP) to push the Cons as far as possible off the Pacific coasta. And thus their party into a major collapse or xenophobic crumple into irrelevance.
15 10 12 R.O.
This is a tough riding to predict as its been conservative and liberal in recent years. Alice Wong has been mp since 2008 and did well here in 2011. BC is such a volatile province when looking thru the polls this election from there. But Alice Wong is the incumbent and higher profile than her liberal challenger . so maybe that gives her somewhat of an advantage here but its likely this riding is closer than 2011
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal for three reasons: 1. Liberal rise in BC though not as significant as Ontario. 2. Conservatives caught embarassing Chinese supporters with deviant racist messages only in Mandarin, that kind of thing is deadly for ethnicities that feel themselves under extra scrutiny 3. It's a coastal riding, and not one of those is going to go Conservative in my prediction. Look at the maps: Only a few in NB are questionable at this point, and those are only due to previously even NDP vs. Liberal vote splits. I interpret the Liberal shift in Atlantic as a movement similar to BC and Quebec provincial politics when the far right wing party just disappeared entirely (Social Credit, Union Nationale) and was replaced by a centre-right Liberal Party. That is happening federally in the Atlantic now but obviously it's been the case in BC provincial politics for decades.
Climate denial is one of the issues that is kicking Cons off coastlines. There's expensive real estate in this riding. Richmond wants it protected.
15 10 07 A.S.
It's the 'Insights West' factor that places this seat under question--though who knows if the TPP element will counteract that; all the same, look for one of the more dramatic (and 'prodigal', given past Ray Chan history) Con-to-Lib swings out there. And in Richmond, it'll *definitely* be Con-to-Lib, given the provincial history of Richmond uniformly aligning with whatever centre/right socialist-stopping bloc of the moment...
15 10 05 DSR
A poll from Insights West published in the last few days backs up the last contributors comments. The poll shows that support for the Conservatives has dropped from 40% in 2011 to 14% in 2015 among those who identify as East or South Asian in the Lower Mainland due to Harper's divisive policies headlined by the Niqab issue.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
The desperate niqab play by the Conservatives has a real chance to backfire in the few ethnic strongholds they have. No community has suffered more consistent racism in British Columbia than the Chinese over the last century and a half. The 'old stock' comment and characterization of certain South Asian cultures as 'evil' is a red flag to anyone raised by people who suffered racism, and that includes many Chinese Con voters.
While they may or may not shift parties, they can sit on their hands for Harper and Lynton Crosby, and hope for oh say a Michael Chong led back-to-Progressive-Conservative Party that will not be demonizing other cultures.
This is also the only riding on the Pacific coastline that anyone thinks could go Conservative, not counting Coquitlam -- Port Coquitlam way up in an inlet and mostly an inland riding. Expensive real estate on coastlines and climate change do not mix. Just how denialist is Richmond Centre? Hm.
15 09 12 Canadian Election Atlas
Richmond is different from the rest of the BC because of its large Chinese population. The Tories have done a good job courting the Chinese community, and that's why they've been able to win this seat in the last few elections. I don't see that support among the Chinese dropping in this election, especially considering the Liberals are eschewing any socially conservative view points from their platform.
15 09 07 Marco Ricci
Liberals have increased in support in the newest BC polls and 308 now shows this as a 58% chance of a Liberal win. (September 6, 2015)
Based on Conservative strength here in recent elections, the CPC likely still has the edge, but it's possible their advantage here is slipping.
15 08 24 BC predictor
A liberal-CPC swing seat that current numbers don't put in play. CPC hold
15 08 10 Matthew
When the Liberals were on top of the polls in BC they had an outside shot at this riding. Now that they have fallen to third they don't have a realistic chance. Alice Wong is well-liked by the Chinese-Canadian community. Smaller margin of victory, but still a solid Conservative hold. The Liberals have a better shot at Steveston-Richmond East.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
There's just no way the Liberals are going to overturn a 58-18 loss. Alice wins without a doubt.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Alice Wong is well liked by the Chinese-Canadian community in Richmond, who make up the majority of the riding. This riding is unlikely to vote NDP, and considering the large margin which sent Wong to Parliament in 2011, it will likely once again go CPC.
15 03 30 JJ
monkey rightly states the Chinese community is 'generally centre-right' but his prediction misses the mark when he starts referring to the Reform/Alliance.
The Reform/Alliance has been gone for some 12 years now. Since then, the Liberals have had their worst election showing ever, and the Conservatives have governed for almost 10 years, winning numerous seats in ridings with high Chinese-Canadian voters. Plus, Conservative policy in Canada has typically been quite centrist... in fact, probably left of many US Democrats.
And let's not forget -- even when the Alliance was still around, they actually won Richmond in 2000!
15 03 29 monkey
Will likely stay Conservative, but the reason I won't call this is not too long ago it went Liberal and no doubt the Liberals will make strong efforts to try and win back the Chinese community. The Chinese community is generally centre-right, not hard right which is why they go solidly BC Liberal provincially but never backed the Reform/Alliance as they were seen as too extreme.
15 03 26 JJ
In 2008 and especially 2011, the CPC won landslides here. They won in 2011 with a margin of 40% over the Liberals. Have the Trudeau Liberals done enough to swing something like 8000 votes to their side? Have the Harper CPC angered enough people?
Like I wrote for my assessment for Vancouver South, the fact that this riding is majority Chinese. Generally, the Chinese community, particularly the ones who immigrated to Canada, have a so-called 'bread and butter' mentality - who will make life more affordable? Who will keep them safe? The CPC policies on cutting taxes for families, tougher sentences, etc. will help the CPC here.
Furthermore, the Liberals have promised to legalize marijuana, and in fact that has been their biggest policy announcement in the last 2 years. Whether this is a good or bad policy doesn't matter; the fact is, this idea is not going to be popular with the ethnic communities.

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