Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-07 21:25:00

Constituency Profile


Garrison, Randall

Litman, Frances

Lukens, Shari

Merner, David

Strandlund, Tyson

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2420.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (197/223 polls, 88.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Randall Garrison

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (26/223 polls, 11.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Elizabeth May


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15 10 16 Craig Hubley
https://www.facebook.com/craig.hubley/posts/10156077870465468?pnref=story is my comment on how the strange VoteTogether.ca dynamics impact Esquimalt which they have not yet called, but appear certain to call for the NDP. Most likely very late to avoid a loud outcry about a total lack of Green endorsements in BC (they have already called Nanaimo and Cowichan NDP and those had stronger Green numbers in neutral polls). Trying to keep Greens onside in BC without one single Green candidate endorsed will be a trick. They haven't even symbolically endorsed Elizabeth May who does have some Conservative unified opposition. This call is a wild card, as is reaction against it. Just one of many reasons that this riding remains too TCTC.
15 10 15 Conservative Pundit
An Insights West poll conducted on October 10 with 300 adult residents of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke showed a clear lead of incumbent Randall Garrison. The numbers showed 27% NDP, 16% Green, 15% Liberal and 14% Conservative. The tricky part are the 25% undecided. However, I think that the NDP lead is sufficient to call it for now.
15 10 15 Jeff S
Insights West poll has NDP up by a decent margin.
15 10 15 Mark in Mexico
ABH voters have seen enough riding polls showing the CPC at half their 2011 levels now to feel confident that they can vote with their hearts. The Greens seem to be riding a bit of an Island wave and have a clear shot at a strong second, but it's also the Liberals' best shot at breaking through 20% in an Island riding. So the blue, red and green teams may rock-paper-scissors each other in the early 20s, and the orange crew can afford to shed quite a few percentage points (which they likely will) without losing the seat. The Greens' performance on the Island could make the difference between the NDP winning one seat -- this one -- and winning six seats out of seven.
15 10 12 China Beach
I think this should be changed to TCTC.
A lot of progressive voters in this riding aren't thrilled with Randall or Mulcair and are thinking about voting Green or Liberal. This lack of strategic voting gives the popular Conservative candidate a very good chance of sliding up the middle.
15 10 07 Islander
This riding is a mixture of several South Island communities that don't fit into the other South Island ridings. This includes the City of Esquimalt, the western portion of the City of Saanich, the towns of Colwood, View Royal, and Sooke, as well as more rural areas such as the Highlands, Elk/Beaver Lake, Metchosin, and Juan De Fuca (West of Sooke).
It also has interesting demographics compared to many Island ridings. Areas such as Colquitz have large East Indian populations, and the areas where Navy Dockworkers reside (Esquimalt, View Royal, parts of Colwood) has a higher Francophone proportion then most of the Island. This creates a large mix of supporters for all four parties, and makes the race relatively close between four strong candidates. The NDP is running criminology professor and incumbent MP Randall Garrison, who is also the NDP's Public Safety critic. The Conservatives are running former Colwood City Councillor Shari Lukens. The Liberals are running government lawyer and party activist David Merner, and the Greens are running photojournalist Frances Litman.
In this riding, I see the results roughly as being NDP: 37%, CPC: 28%, Green: 18%, and LPC: 17%.
The riding can be broken down into three parts roughly: Esquimalt-View Royal, Saanich, and the West Shore. I have illustrated what I predict the support levels to be as such: NDP/CPC/GPC/LPC.
Esquimalt-View Royal
This area is the most urban part of the riding, and has a higher population density then the other two-thirds. As I said before, there are many Francophones in this area, many of whom are DOD employees at the Navy Dockyards. It is also the most demographically mixed area of the riding, with high-income areas in View Royal and low-income areas in Esquimalt, particularly in the Aboriginal reserve. The NDP has traditionally done well in Esquimalt, and in the most recent provincial election there main competition was the Green Party rather then the BC Liberals. Expect to see the Green Party maintain their momentum here. Meanwhile, the Liberals should also preform well due to the high number of (well-paid) government employees, many from Eastern Canada. But they still won't come anywhere close to the NDP in this area. 45/10/20/25.
A mixture of suburb and rural areas, Saanich is slightly more spread out and has a mix of farms and suburban areas. It stretches all the way from the Tillicum neighbourhood, which lies immediately north of the core neighborhoods of Victoria, to Willis Point, an upscale, isolated area along the scenic Saanich inlet. The area also has a higher East Indian population then the rest of the Island as a whole, as well as a decent-sized Chinese population. Although almost all of the demographics I mentioned should favor the Conservatives, they have traditionally had problems making inroads in the higher population areas of Saanich, in the South. Here, the NDP is dominant, which swings the area in their favour. Meanwhile, the Greens have patchworks of support in Tillicum and the area surrounding Elk and Beaver Lake, but this will likely not be enough for them to come out on top in any polls. The Liberals will likely attempt to make inroads with the East Indian population, but this won't be enough for them to win a significant number of polls. 35/30/20/15.
West Shore
The West Shore is everything on the West-side of the South Island, such as Colwood, rural Metchosin, Sooke and Juan de Fuca up to Jordan River. This area is expanding rapidly in population and is dominated by young, middle-class families. This area is much more like the rest of Canada in its political views then the rest of the riding, which is bad news for the NDP and Greens. Don't expect them to perform particularly well. The Conservative candidate Shari Lukens hails from Colwood and has a high profile there, which should allow her to pull ahead of her rivals. It remains to be seen whether the Liberals can make inroads here, as they did before 2011 when they held the riding. 30/45/15/10
15 10 07 A.S.
Victoria's plausible; but it would take a pretty big tank of the NDP for the Greens to actually conquer ESS, as opposed to simply splitting the opposition three ways. Though nationwide at least, the NDP seems to be tanking; so who knows what that foretells...
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
I still think this is too close to call, very similar to Burnaby North -- Seymour, and for the same reasons. On the one hand, NDP numbers dropping throughout BC make this a questionable call (it's presently called NDP) - it should be TCTC on that and the surging Conservative numbers alone.
As for the Green factor, a few other donation/volunteer/swap targets have fallen off the map (like Yukon) while others are dominating Green strategy since they are clearly ABC ridings (like Victoria). It's not clear that there is any regional or national organizing priority for Esquimault now, especially with better prospects in Victoria, Guelph and Fredericton. The latter two of which are clearly races against Liberals and could create a regional breakthrough effect like BC. The Greens don't need more than one BC seat to prove that the breakthrough is real and effective, so they should really focus on Victoria to prove that, on Bruce Hyer to prove that Green floor crossers can get re-elected, and on Guelph because most of the Greens in Toronto and Southern Ontario are volunteering and donating there and it's utterly winnable. Finally they should focus on Fredericton due to the regional breakthrough effect and because they have a star candidate capable of dominating the NB progressive scene even if most NB MPs end up NDP or Liberal. Someone people would actually cross the floor to work with.
So with Esquimault maybe fifth or sixth on the priority list, probably after mainland ridings that are basically ABC and less risky to pursue, I think the Greens here are likely a spoiler now. There's a small chance that Green vote swaps go viral in the last week of the campaign, but if we don't see something like that happen, this is a Con versus NDP tossup. And will remain so until election day.
15 09 29
Contrary to some of the Green propaganda in the comments, I think this is still clearly an NDP win. The second place here will likely be Conservative which was very close at last election. However, I'll admit that the Green have made some serious progress and might be able to pick up more support. I don't think the Green can win here, but they might be able to sway enough NDP and liberal voters to be noticed. Perhaps even enough for the conservatives to take the seat.
15 09 18 John
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Greens could take this one.
Elizabeth May's riding is right next door, and the Greens have to be careful about where they put their resources. If the Greens are going to target a riding for a potential second seat in the HoC, this would be a logical one.
15 09 15 Mike A
In 2011 Randall (the NDP) only won by 400 votes against the Conservatives. With the Cons polling high again this is going to be a close one between the NDP and the Conservatives. However, Randall being the incumbent and the NDP polling well in BC and on the island should help him squeak by. Closer to the election I think the Liberal and Green supporters will realize how close it is and jump to the NDP to prevent the Cons.
15 09 12 Teddy Boragina
This riding is #3 on the Green target list in terms of winnable ridings.
Despite that, the polls show the Greens are simply not doing well. Even with 32% on Vancouver Island, given how much of the Green vote will be stacking up in May's riding, this riding will likely stay NDP.
That is not to say that the Greens won't finish second here, in fact, I expect they will, even with around 30% of the vote.
15 08 28 Griffin Lea
With the recent Insights West poll showing a tightening two way race on the Island, the Green Party is clearly within striking distance of taking any or even all of the Island ridings. The poll put the Green Party at 32% (up 12 points from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down 7 points from 46%). This is incredibly huge momentum. When combined with the great candidates in every Island riding as well as the fact that the Green Party will now benefit from Liberal and Conservative voters who are wary of an NDP majority and interested in doing something exciting with their vote, the whole island may very well get painted Green. This momentum is particularly true on the south island closer to Elizabeth May's seat. And judging by the lawn sign war, Francis Litman has already won.
15 08 26 Mark
While the Greens are a force to be considered in the CRD area, it is tough to imagine that Garrison will lose this seat given how well the NDP is polling in BC right now. The 4 main parties all have good candidates this election, but nothing short of an absolute surge by the Greens or a big mistake by Mulcair and the NDP will take this riding out of Randall's hands.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Changing my call here to TCTC. The Greens have a strong candidate and her surging could split the vote more evenly to swing the seat Conservative because there's really no consensus about which of the BC seats that both NDP and Greens are pursuing is going which way. A more even Green-vs-NDP split here and in Burnaby North Seymour could elect a Conservative in either place. With their best Green prospect being Yukon, some Greens picking fights with the NDP in Victoria, and Elizabeth May still having to hold her own seat, a strong Green focus on this seat seems pretty unlikely. So too does the NDP giving it or any other West Coast seat up. It's the Liberal voters who will have to swing NDP or Green in the end to stop the Conservative, and who knows what they'll want to hear to do that.
This one has become a three-way horse race.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
I see this as the best Green prospect in BC. Better than Victoria or Burnaby North - Seymour. If there's going to be a second Green seat in BC, this is it.
If not for the divided focus between here, Victoria, BNS, and Frank de Jong's run in Yukon, the Greens could easily focus and take this seat. Especially with a popular business minded First Peoples female candidate.
The Greens badly need this representation and should fight very hard for it.
But with the NDP as the obvious alternative in waiting, rather than Liberals (Guelph, Yukon) or Conservatives (Miramichi, Nunuvat), the voter has no particularly strong reason to prefer the Green here. Unlike those places in the more direct path of projects the Greens do not support but the Liberals or NDP do (like Kinder Morgan) there's no difference between NDP and Green positions on Northern Gateway, nor even the Liberal position. Unless to support Rachel Notley the NDP goes soft on Tar Sands in a big way, which is certainly possible. May tried very hard to pin down Mulcair on this issue in the first TV debate, and Mulcair hedged.
So die-hard pipeline and tanker opponents really have to vote Green now, since the NDP as a unified federal-provincial organization cannot easily oppose Rachel Notley's pro-pipeline pro-Tar-Sands Alberta provincial govt.
That will help all the Greens in coastal BC but only in this riding is it likely to be enough of a shift to actually keep the NDP out. Victoria is much safer NDP due to the academics, bureaucrats and other NDP stalwarts.
15 06 08 Mr. Dave
A poll released today showed NDP support over 40% while the other parties were under 20%. Easy NDP hold for Randall Garrison.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
With the NDP at 42% in this riding according to a recent Insights West poll, they should have no problems holding his riding. The Conservatives and Greens have no chance at taking this riding if those numbers hold up by election day.
15 05 28 Steven H.
Don't look too closely to past results to predict future results. When Andrew Weaver won provincially with 41%, the Green candidate had only had 9% four years earlier!
The difference this time is that the Greens were one of the first out the gate with a candidate, and she's already knocking on doors and holding public events. Elizabeth May has also been holding public events in this riding. Expect this riding to be fully funded once the writ drops, when it's always been run on a tight budget in the past.
Often in the past, Greens have had well-meaning but little-known candidates. Fran is a well-known business owner in the Langford portion of the riding, and she's a first nations candidate in a riding with dozens of first nations communities (15 in the Cowichan area alone).
In the past the Greens have typically nominated a candidate just before the deadline, had no money, and had no organization. They're very different on all three this time around.
I always recommend people vote their conscious, as the only truly wasted vote is one that says nothing about what you believe. But the redistributed results suggest the NDP would have barely won this riding with a popular incumbent. Without that advantage, I see the Greens as the smart choice for building a coalition to keep this out of Conservative hands. Just as they were in Saanich Gulf Island Federally, and just as they were in Oak Bay Gordon Head provincially. Both were ridings the NDP had tried and failed to keep out of federal Conservative/BC Liberal hands for years, but once the Greens came on strong they were able to. The Greens being more fiscally conservative than the NDP, but more socially progressive than the Liberals and Conservatives, are the ones that can cross party lines to keep this riding out of Conservative hands.
15 04 02 BJ
One of the toughest ridings to predict on Vancouver Island. The NDP won this riding marginally over the CPC, back in 2011, with the collapse of the Liberal vote as well as a downward drift for the then fringe Greens.
Firstly, the CPC seems to have nominated much better, for 2015, with Shari Lukens - poll-topping councillor for the District of Colwood. In 2008 and 2011, the CPCs candidate was the more lackluster Troy DeSouza.
2015 will also see a completely different political dynamic in this riding. No doubt the Liberal vote will rebound. But by how much?
More importantly, the Green surge in Greater Victoria will undoubtedly affect this 3rd riding in the same area. The Greens also seem to have nominated well with Frances Litman.
Highly probable that the combined Liberal and Green vote increase will impact the 2011 NDP vote considerably more than the 2011 CPC vote. On top of that, the NDP incumbent Garrison is not considered one of the NDPs brightest lights, Mulcair does not have Jack Laytons coat-tails, and the provincial BC NDP is drifting aimlessly and rudderless. All of these factors will impact the NDP vote here. Suffice to say, the NDP seems to have negative momentum in Greater Victoria these days.
If the Green surge in Greater Victoria is also present in this riding - the Greens win. If the Green surge is not enough but both the Greens and Liberals eat too much of the 2011 NDP vote, the CPC wins. Very interesting race.
15 03 29 monkey
Liberals and Greens won't win here, but will play kingmaker depending on how they steal votes from or if they lose votes where they migrate to. I would give the edge to the NDP as Randall Garrison has incumbent advantage and the close race in the past two elections was largely due to Troy D'Souza who ran a really strong campaign, but still TCTC.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Like Elizabeth May there is a clear second place in position to beat the Conservatives here, and it's the NDP. Doctrinaire Greens will disagree, but the average Green voter won't. When the Conservatives are wiped off the BC coastal map, there will be time for Green/NDP/Liberal squabbling, but I think this riding going NDP will be a quid pro quo for keeping Saanich-Gulf Islands Green.
Partisans can quack and lie and strut all they want, for May to keep her seat, people who prefer the NDP to her party need to know that a riding as close as next door is going NDP. That doesn't have to be formal swapping, but a left activist who gathered her NDP friends together to vote Green in 2011 to ditch Lunn, who is now in the shifted polls in Esquimalt, is going to be calling on her Green friends to rally them to come out in a mob to crush Shari Lukens (Con) the former Colwood municipal councillor. A sales manager and therefore prone to making statements she can't live up to. A wicked and fun race to watch, in which Lukens will likely be humiliated. She might even be a sacrificial lamb.

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