Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Vancouver Kingsway

Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 21:09:04

Constituency Profile


Cariou, Kimball

Davies, Don

Kadioglu, Matt

Kou, Steven

Moore, Catherine

Petersen, Donna

Quimpo, Jojo

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4411.21%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (164/164 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Don Davies


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15 10 14 poljunkiebc
This is shaping up to be a much tighter race than could have been predicted a few weeks ago. The LPC held this riding for years, as has the NDP of course. FWIW, there is also a proliferation of CPC signs for their candidate who is apparently quite popular in the Filipino-Canadian community (and they count for a lot in this riding). Don Davies by all accounts, has been a pretty good MP and it may be that which just saves his skin, though voters seldom elect based on their local candidates. This riding may be more local oriented than most. Still, an NDP edge, with a reduced vote %.
15 10 13 BC predictor
Would still say an NDP win is most likely but if the LPC is indeed getting 36%~ nationally and the NDP drops to the low 20%~ this seats in play
15 10 06 A.S.
I'll give this to Davies, but by a hairline--given the NDP's plummet, the Liberals topping some of those topsy-turvy BC polls and the Grit history in Kingsway, I suspect there's stealth vulnerability that was camoflauged by the Iggy collapse in 2011. *If* Don Davies becomes the Margaret Mitchell of 2015, don't say I didn't warn you.
15 09 24 Milo
Don cracks 20-25k? Easy NDP Hold, riding seems to have more support for Don Davies after getting to know him through each of the 2008 (slim margin of victory) and 2011 (growing margin of victory) elections and as an mp has performed well. I expect the margin to grow even further here.
15 08 24 BC predictor
NDP hold what is usually a liberal-ndp swing seat with an increased margin
15 08 08 Laurence Putnam
Don Davies has solidified a stranglehold on the riding which a nationally strong NDP campaign will only shore up further. Once again, it's likely the Liberals will be a non-factor in this race.
15 08 05 Dr Bear
Up until a few months ago I was on the fence as to whether this will stay NDP or swing Liberal. Sorry Liberals, no dice! NDP surging in BC will ensure that Davies is back in Ottawa (a potential minister in a hypothetical NDP cabinet?).
15 03 29 monkey
Like much of East Vancouver, it should favour the NDP, but does have a large Chinese community whom the NDP has never done well amongst. Part of the reason they won here as much of the Chinese community swung over to the Conservatives (although not enough to make the Tories even competitive here) so if the Liberals can regain the votes they lost to the Tories they may have a shot here.
15 03 25 JJ
Don Davies won with a very solid margin in 2011 and has been a high-profile NDP MP. A national NDP campaign will help to solidify and shore up the traditional NDP base (and help to neutralize the attention Trudeau has been getting in the last while). In order for the Liberals to win this, they need to siphon off a massive 7000-8000 votes from the other parties to pull a squeaker. I'm not convinced that is going to happen.
15 03 22 Brian A
Based on the numbers alone, including those resulting from redistribution, this riding will stay NDP. There's also the history factor to consider, in that this seat isn't a newbie to NDP representation - just as Ed Broadbent. Don Davies has been a very active MP to boot, and definitely hasn't been simply sitting on his laurels. The Liberals will challenge for sure, and I fully expect them to put up a fight, but this seat isn't going anywhere.
15 03 19 Fairview Resident
The Liberals won this in 2006 by 10% when the NDP beat them in BC by 1%. The NDP are now consistently behind by 5% or more. Most of the Liberal increase is in metro Vancouver. Redistribution doesn't seem to have benefited either party. If the NDP closes the gap, then the incumbency advantage may be enough for Don Davies to keep his seat. But right now, this riding tilts Liberal.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Another NDP hold on the numbers alone. Not worth challenging for the Greens or Liberals though as usual the die hard local campaigners will be out there all alone in the blistering heat of summer and cool of the fall.
One doesn't overcome 20%+ leads that way though. It requires a candidate of truly monumental fail proportions to blow away this kind of support and lose a riding like this.

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