Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Vancouver Quadra

Prediction Changed
2015-03-16 22:46:09

Constituency Profile


Andrews, Scott

Boyer, Marc

Caron, Jean-François

Constable, Kris

Lockhart, Blair

Murray, Joyce

Walper, Trevor Clinton

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Vancouver Quadra
   (194/194 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Joyce Murray


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15 10 06 A.S.
Hard to believe that Joyce Murray was actually deemed a bit of a *turkey* in some circles when she first parachuted into Quadra--a defeated BCLib MLA, a failed fed candidate elsewhere. And even if she had the unite-the-left gambit/gimmick working for her, her position at the head of the 'rest of the pack' in the Justin-won leadership race truly reflected the sad post-Iggy state of the fed Grits. But in any case: she's there, she's looking better than anyone had a reason to predict a decade ago, and all the cards are aligning on behalf of her safe return...
15 09 24 Milo
A near 12% of Liberals supported Joyce as Liberal Leader and Candidate for Prime Minister of Canada and that ended up as second place to Justin Trudeau in the Liberal Leadership race back in 2013. Riding changes (due to formation of new Vancouver Granville riding) helps Lib support in this educated/affluent area of Vancouver's south/west. Murray is a Green candidate in Red clothing and this suits a wide variety of people in the riding. LIB HOLD
15 08 24 BC predictor
The CPC portions of the riding are gone, Super duper safe Liberal seat now
15 08 06 Laurence Putnam
Red since '84, this is the only truly 'safe' Liberal seat in BC. NDP and Greens aren't strong enough here to splinter the vote to the Conservatives' benefit.
15 08 05 Dr Bear
Voters like Joyce Murray and this is a very Liberal area. The more conservative portions have been cut off in redistribution. Easy Liberal hold.
15 07 21 BAS
One of the safest Liberal seats, capable of withstanding a total collapse of Team/Équipe Trudeau, a massive Orange Wave, a terror-fuelled hysteric stampede to Harper's Conservatives, you name it. A red-painted cardboard cutout could win Quadra.
15 06 26 seasaw
Even though Joyce Murray is a bit of a wild card, this riding shall stay Liberal regardless of how the Grits do elsewhere
15 04 26 Docere
Like St. Paul's in Toronto, Vancouver Quadra is a bastion of upscale liberalism. As noted by previous posters, redistribution has made the riding even more favorable for the Liberals and progressive voters have little problem voting for Joyce Murray.
15 04 11 Jack Cox
This is the riding that has the Kitsilano Coast Guard that got shuttered a couple of years ago. With the recent oil spill there is no way this is going to the Conservatives. This was a strong liberal riding to begin with and the liberals have made an explicit promise to re-open the Kitsilano Coast Guard.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Liberal hold for the immediate future. Joyce Murray has grown her profile since the last election by finishing 2nd in the Liberal Leadership to Justin Trudeau.
Re-distribution also increases the Liberal advantage over the Conservatives in this riding. (From 3.5% in 2011 to 7% in 2015)
Deborah Meredith, the Conservative candidate who ran against Murray in 2008 & 2011 (and nearly beat her in the 2008 by-election) is not planning to run again, so there will likely be a new CPC candidate here.
Meanwhile, although there are not a lot of NDP voters in this riding, some of them may vote for Murray since she proposed co-operation with the NDP during her leadership run.
15 03 29 monkey
This may be a centre-right riding provincially as even though the BC NDP won Vancouver-Point Grey, using these boundaries this would have been one of the BC Liberals strongest showings. But despite being a wealthy riding, it is an educated and environmentally conscious riding so in addition to the Liberals holding this since 1984, the Tories are seen as too regressive to win here. If the Tories had a more centrist leader they might have a shot at winning here, but until then this will stay Liberal. Likewise if the Liberals disappeared and it was simply a Tory-NDP battle then it probably would go Tory but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.
15 03 22 Brian A
Point Grey has an NDP MLA, so I fully expect the NDP to do better here than they may have done otherwise, especially since e-day should be close to the fall and the UBC crowd will be around. It's also because of the UBC crowd that this riding will easily stay LPC. Joyce Murray is a strong MP and quite progressive for the Libs. She fits in well with this riding - Liberal since the John Turner days.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Pro-cooperation, pro-coalition former Liberal leadership candidate Joyce Murray is the very last Liberal in the country that NDP or Green voters would swap in against. Quite the contrary, they'd help her by swapping out their votes to Saskatoon or Yukon or wherever there are lost Liberals with no chance.
Probably the safest Liberal seat in BC given how it stood the Ignatieff / #RoboCon meltdown and betrayal (Ignatieff turning down the PMO in 2009).
This is actually the Liberal leader that the NDP and Greens *WANTED*, so even if they furiously campaign against Liberals elsewhere, they'll want Murray to hold on. A perpetual third place Liberal Party of Canada will have to listen to her, and that's what the NDP at least expects to occur.
15 03 16 JW
Van Quadra has gone Liberal since the Turner meltdown and stuck with the Liberals through the Ignatieff meltdown. Only logical assumption would be that it would stay Liberal under Trudeaumania 2.0.

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